[Pre FOMC Breakout 3/21/23]

[Perp Returns to the Scene of the Crime 3/17/23]

14 hours ago, WTF said:

Thanks for the update TCG... Hope all is well with you.

One more time...."Until 3600 is breached on Volume...you're still in the topping pattern in the ^GSPC".

WTF...

I saw in my notes that I gave you a Gold Star awhile back for one reason or another. 

I always give a bonus chart to those I give a Gold Star too...

Here ya go.

Mull it over.  Carefully...

What sector is leading this decline?  Correct.  Bank stocks...everything else will eventually follow.

With that said...

"Once the MAGNET(2,24(x) to 2,25(x).) in the ^GSPC has been achieved, it is best to walk away and clear your head for the eventual turn in the market, BUT that does not mean the MAGNET is the low." 

Far from it...

Since I cannot recall if you were around in the spring of last year when I explained the magnet...I'll repeat...The March 23, 2020 low is the MAGNET for ALL issues.  The tech stocks are leading the decline and are one step ahead of the ^GSPC/^DJI and have already reached their prospective magnets.  For further information on this topic you could go back into the archives and take a peak at "Through the Looking Glass".

What am I really saying here WTF? 

To sum up...

As the tech stocks(^IXIC) enter into their fifth wave...the ^GSPC/^DJI complex will fall from their lofty position of the topping pattern into their third wave.  Confirmation will come in the ^GSPC as you crack 3600, but only on Volume.

Again.  One Step Behind.  The magnet, when reached...will not be the low.   A retest will be in order...at a minimum.  Although, a nice quick truncated fifth has the highest odds of what really takes place.

At that time...long positions will the most favorable.  For a time...

Take care and I'll see you on the flipside...

TCG

oh...and...uh...

Again.  I'll park this right here...

The level of speculation I've witnessed over the last few weeks...it's nothing short of disheartening.  Most of the issues being ramped...should be closed and eventually will be.

[Perp Returns to the Scene of the Crime 3/17/23]

March 30th...

Passing through....just want to step in here and remind you of what I previously posted on several occasions.

"When gold begins to travel inverse to the broad markets...it will be a short-term phenomena(deception)...don't buy into it."

It's not all bad in gold though...

Since I'm here...I'll toss this out there.  

Won't be long gentlemen...

Best of luck...

The CoinGuy

oh...and...

While I'm here....The SPX needs to hold the swing point at 3800.  Personally speaking...I'd like to see us head up to the top of the range once again and give us a clean pattern completion...although, the Twin Peaks formation doesn't require it from here so it's anybodies guess. 

I'm sitting and patiently waiting for the swing point to break on volume.

No need to repeat my case....2,240 to 2,250 will be touched...soon.

I think Shania can say it it best...Dance with the one that brought you.  Although...Ol' CoinGuy might add...despite "Pattern Phase Distortion" being present in the pattern from the October 13th "suspicious" low.  The pattern...is...intact. 

Only an advance above 4300(on Volume) would break the pattern.

Why the distortion?  Election narrative manipulation?  SPR sales to China? DJI manipulation?  Do you really have to ask?

SIVB is nothing more than an orchestrated signal to "misstep with intent" to subjugate. 

UCC Guidelines update eh?  You better understand this...CBDC acceleration.

I will repeat.   The misstep will be intentional.

Something I didn't mention when posting the "Dust in the Wind" chart originally is this.   See the first decline in 2018?  A straight crash...and repeated in 2020?  Then, the second decline?  A pause to refresh before crashing yet again.  I know you're all familiar with the rule of alternation so I don't feel as though I need to fill in the blanks.  Just use 1250...and a little imagination...it'll get you there.

Almost forgot...

Remember this chart of the ^XOI?  This was the day I called the high...we've had two attempts to overcome the June 8th peak only to set up a "Right Side Dominant"  Twin Peaks formation(see next chart).  

Pay attention to the "compression" in the chart...it gives you the answer to the question you're not asking yet.

To Conclude...

When I was reviewing the posts over the last few weeks to see what topics were being discussed...I noticed the forum has become a fan of anniversaries.

[Bulls Never Say Die - 2/13/23]

Good afternoon...

I've made the decision today to go ahead and no longer post publicly.  I think it's best, I'm having to hold back too much...and considering the current environment...I no longer feel comfortable posting my feelings about market/world events.

Doc.  I enjoyed getting back in touch with you and our conversations.  Going forward I wish the best for you and everyone posting here at Capitalstool.

Take Care,

The CoinGuy

[Bulls Never Say Die - 2/13/23]

HUI:  Making a strong attempt at holding the KEY at 235.  If it's successful...it's a game changer. 

TCG

[Bulls Never Say Die - 2/13/23]

Today is 4 months from the October 13th low...and...two months from the  December 13th high.

As we're probing 4100 this morning...I'll wait for 4110 to be taken(and held) before tossing the claws into the drawer.  Although, to me...it's an inevitability...that should happen soon.  Why?  Well...over the decades...I've studied high's and low's very carefully.  February 2nd...or 2.02...just doesn't ring a bell as being a solid date for a high. 

My records agree...

Doesn't mean it can't happen...but I'd prefer that it didn't. 

As part of the example I gave on Friday.  For those who read it carefully.  I'll post this chart here.  The inverse of this date is? 

The inverse date is what I'm personally watching and why I recently posted in my monthly "dates to watch" comment...2.16 into 2.17.  Although...it could only be the pivot...I do not know.  Some things, you actually need to see.

Doc mentioned the 4 day cycle this morning.  Again.  For those read my example carefully.  "Simply Add 2".  These specific dates are known to be part of a 4 day cycle where it is rather common for highs/lows to be produced.

Again...February 2nd is not.

Doesn't mean it can't happen...but the odds? 

Not good from my perspective...

To alleviate my concerns?  South of 4010 would do it...

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

I hate to drag this tired old chart out again, but it still has relevance...

In the back of my mind...I've always felt the coming decline in the SPX could very well be defined by the "Twin Peaks" formation.  When 3500 held at the low on October 13th...I started to have suspicions.  Although, "when 3900 was surpassed" to the upside...those suspicions started to become alleviated and now, after a little further research into the archives...I'm also seeing other issues that held in the same general area within this particular pattern. 

In fact...it is quite common(to some degree).

When I view these two examples below...I do see "light" support running through this area...and I could also see why that might be easily missed.

What is the point?  I mentioned 4250 several times.  We have a gap up here...I'd like to see the gap filled.  Why? 

Well...view the Twin Peaks chart a little closer perhaps?

If I'm wrong...we should find out soon enough.

Although, IF this pattern turns out be correct.  We're a) within a few short steps of heading into the brunt of the decline right here and now and b) I will have to adjust my final resting place for the DJI/SPX complex  -  upwards.  No two-stage(1929) crash here...just your run of the mill repeat of the 2000/2008 crash complex.  Again.  We should know soon enough.  Watching every tick...

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

The Beginning of the End

Looks like we closed right at the 235 KEY(again, lower key is 225).  Once the decline gets rolling I'd like to see 150 touched, even probed...but not penetrated on strength and held.

If 150 is rejected...I'll start to fill in the lines on the right. 

If 150 is surpassed, you better strap in for the ride of your life...

I will repeat myself.  After two digits...the HUI Gold Bug index has a four digit future. 

I have zero doubt,

The CoinGuy

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

Are Our Markets Truly Free?

I just gave you a small example from one form of analysis I have developed.  Behavioral patterns are NOT limited to simple patterns on a chart...they encompass time as well.

Events(in this life) are nothing more than Fractals Fractured(Staggered) by the Nature of Time.

I’ll let this topic rest(sink in) for 4 months - from today.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...uh...

From this evening in Brazil...

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

I'm going to mention...

For those who like to follow my charts...

If you go back to October 21st from last year and read my posts from that day...you won't be blindsided when I post my next chart. 

I wouldn't have even had the idea if I didn't glance over to my second screen and look at Doc's chart earlier this morning.  I was working on something else entirely...

While I still believe it's early...there was a topic I mentioned that day that I won't let completely die.  I'll keep coming back to it over and over until we finally can sing the words together...and mean them.

Blue Skies...

Chart incoming.  An hour, a day...who knows.  It's plum crazy around here right now.

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

From '85 to '89 I lived in JAX.

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

You don't remember?  Occupational hazard?  Smile...

I bounced around a lot myself.  Before '89 I was in the military.  What was my official job?

Correcting charts...

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

I didn't come on the scene until '89.

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

And...the 80's led to the crash of '87.

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

Nevermind Doc...I read your explanation incorrectly.  I thought it was a correlation chart between bond yields and the dollar VS the stock market.  After a closer look...nope.  Smile...

I'm working on six things at once.

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

That pop off 4060...unfortunately felt pretty solid.

Yesterday's decline...well, it needed confirmation.

Although, personally speaking...I think the next two weeks should get quite exciting.

TCG

oh...and..

That SPX vs YLD vs USD chart is...interesting.  I'm going to have to take a few days to mull that over.  I've never looked at the relationship between the three in that manner.  I like that chart...

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

From the pandemic low...yields have been in a "secular" bull market.  Please remember this when you view my next chart posted.

😉,

TCG

[US Treasury Crushes the Stock Rally 2/10/23]

Bit of a pop off 4060 in progress I see.  From looking at my Daily Charts...that area looks like the last bastion of safety before the floodgates open a little wider.  I have to be honest...if this holds...a retest is not out of the question.  I'd personally like to see the dam break here...but, you know the rules.

A Pivot in Time

Until we get some form of confirmation...if anyone is sitting around bored.  Perhaps you can find the time to answer a couple of questions:

How many days are there from the low on October 13th to the recent high on February 2nd?

That is 1/2 of?

Here a little...there a little...until it adds up to something that no one can take away from you.

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

7 minutes ago, TurdButter said:

And, an overdue thanks for your posting here, quite interesting-and challenging at times. 

And, good health to you.

Appreciative TB.  Truly appreciative...

I hope that is challenging in a good way.  Smile...

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

TB...

Is his name eight ball?

If this was the 80's....I'd be thinking mascot.

🙂,

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Coinbase monthly horror candle, same as in August…

fxfox...

saw the symbol and thought I'd take a look.

75 looks to be a solid wall of resistance for this one. 

I've never followed COIN, but 10 seconds into the chart the only words I could utter...Train Wreck.

I like the symbol...don't like the chart.

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

While a promising development...I'll be following my rules.

"One day does not a new trend make...I'll judge today by what I see tomorrow."

Show me...

TCG

oh...and...

WTF, do me a favor and please briefly mention when your inverse fund pops 9.50...

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

1 hour ago, WTF said:

I rode the gold train up from 2000 to 2011 and unfortunately down the other side of the mountain.  I actually still have an account with some junior miners that I refuse to sell just for spite.  I guess the saying is true that you pay for your education, hope I actually learned something.

I guess, I am still a gold bug at heart and could go into a rant about why gold should be $5,000 - $10,000 an ounce, but this is business.  One day the gold bugs will have their day, but unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, because things would have gone terribly wrong with the current financial system) today is not that day.

I didn't like doing it but took a 3x inverse gold miners position using GDXD last week.  From personal experience I know that the speed of the downturns in gold can be head spinning, years' worth of gains gone in a handful of months.

Looking forward to a day when I can again have a long position in some silver stocks.

I'd hold onto those junior positions(my nickname for juniors is "The Junk Pile"), gold will be having it's day and frankly...I don't think that day is all that far off.  Although, between here and there is a steep wall of pain.  If you were there during the decline of '08 you understand exactly what I'm saying.

I won't comment on 3x inverse funds...other than to say,  I don't like them and I don't like what they usually end up doing to traders I happen to care about.  Please be careful.

I prefer longer trends(6 to 18 months) and then just excel at being correct.  If you do this consistently...the money adds up fast enough.  I'll add...I never use leverage.  I pay cash...

I'll always be a goldbug...not a big fan of miners, but I'm a huge fan of gold and I should probably add gold's kid sister to the mix...silver.  If you aren't rich.  Load on up silver...that is my call.

I probably should mention.....while I'm not a big fan of the miners, I do enjoy the royalty model.

And I'm not poo pooing the miners either.  I just don't have the need for the leverage.  If I was young...I'd be looking at everything from the "up and comers" to the "intermediate producers".  Then toss in a couple Royalty companies and call it a day.

Oops...looks like 4100 broke as I was typing.

Best,

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

SiP....

Interesting price action in your NQ chart.  Don't recall seeing anything quite like it...

I believe Doc used the term 'weird'.

I concur...

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

HUI:  We're coming into the KEY at 235(225 as well).  My current thinking is 180 won't hold, but I'd like to see truncation in the decline....possibly 150 stopping the momentum to the downside.  Then a sharp rally and I mean...sharp. 

THAT is the more bullish of the two scenarios I'm viewing in my charts.

GLD:  For now...light support every five steps.

If my thoughts change...I'll speak up.

TCG

[Another Day, Another Sucker Play - 2/9/23]

Patiently waiting for the conclusion...they're winding the candles on the daily nice and tight.  No confirmation for the bulls or the bears as of yet.

Personally speaking(in the SPX)...I'm just watching 4110(then 4100), 4160(then 4210) to see what breaks first.

TCG

oh...and...

That would be 34200 and 33200 in the DJI.