It's not dotcom bubble. From spx or nasdaq to gold ratio perspective we are half way there which means spx would need to hit almost 11k to say we are in the same level of bubble.
so QT taper comming soon
appropriate to slow the pace of runoff fairly soon". This is all about avoiding disruption to money markets, but is still a de facto (marginal) easing of monetary policy relative to baseline.
2024 is a discussion about inflation - whether it will fall to target or yet remain elevated, e.g. 3-4%.
Because if it is the latter, there will be one cut or two and the market will finally feel the problem of higher rates. The longer this goes on, the greater the chance that it will break down.
The only thing that doesn't suit me is Timming because mid-March and especially April is a good time for rallies as that's when there are higher tax receipts and less supply of bonds hence classically the second half of March and April are good. So maybe sideways? We shall see. It has already been easy.
and if competition appears, look at tiktok, the US government is blocking apps under the deceitful guise of spying. Typical American behaviour as they lose the race. It doesn't change the fact that if tiktok goes down, you'll buy meta again. That's why meta is getting more expensive.
And importantly, the internet has no competition from China unlike, for example, Tesla. The trade war means that many products will not be viable. The likes of google, microsoft etc have no viable alternative from China. you won't use a Russian internet search engine after all. These are different worlds, disconnected. There will be no Chinese netflix or Chinese operating system. These are sure stocks, you can buy ETFs for years.
Many companies like Microsoft should continue to grow because they are the monopolists wrapping up the internet.
If it is to be believed that more and more business is moving online, then these companies should be the ones to make a profit. Just like cloud computing, cyber security etc. sectors
the only certain companies that are winning on AI are the semiconductor manufacturers that drive AI and the energy and data centre providers.
Most applications of AI will not be profitable.
