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  1. In short, no. You do not see armies of homeless people in Croatia like you do in US cities. Croatia is a poor country, but they seem to have ways of housing their poorest and most needy, unlike the US. I'm not familiar with their social services beyond their health care system, which I have paid to use on occasion. The facilities are right out of the socialist era, not palatial monuments to excess like in the US. But care seems good. Medical professionals are highly trained. They have modern equipment, and at least in Zagreb, there are plenty of medical specialists to treat particular diseases. By US standards, medical care is dirt cheap for private payers, and universal. Apparently there are programs to assure food and housing security. https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1104&langId=en&intPageId=4465 Note also that basic living costs are far lower here than in the US. In most places families can find sustenance housing for around $200 per month or less. That's not as cheap as it sounds, given salaries in Croatia are also low. Low wage workers make only $500-600 per month according to data I've looked at. The average salary is around $2100 per month. What I would call class A 2-3 bedroom apartment would run $1000-$1200. Less desirable, not recently renovated units can be had for much less. A very nice 1 br flat in the best locations run $600-750 USD per month. Where I lived in Philly, something similar would run $2400-3000. And Philly is cheap for big US cities. Grocery food costs 20-30% less than in US and household supplies are 50-60% less. Restaurant meals are 20% to 50% less. Public transportation is 50% less. Gas is much more expensive than in the US. Most people who live in cities do not have a car. Most cars are minis or compacts. I have been in Europe for nearly 11 months and I've rented cars 4 times for road trips. Everything else I do here, I do on foot, or on an occasional tram or bus ride. Croatian cities are so geographically compact, I never needed to use public transit. I take an Uber to airports. That costs $15. Prescription drugs are 80% less than in the US. Non prescription drugs, like aspirin, are far more expensive here than going to Costco and getting 500 low dose aspirin for $5. But you're still talking about a tiny fraction of a monthly budget. I get low does aspirin, 28 tablets for about $2. 20 ibuprofen would run about $5. But those are the exceptions. Chain clothing and shoe stores cost about as much as at home. But there are street vendor markets selling nice unlabeled clothing for prices comparable to a Ross or Burlington. American retirees on a limited income like social security alone could live decently here in Croatia for about $1200 per month including expat health insurance. You would probably want to continue to pay on your Medicare Part B, in case you ever decide to go back to the US, or want extreme medical treatment or surgery. That will cost you another $150 a month or so. If you have $2000-2500 a month in income, you could live in a really nice apartment within a block of a beach somewhere, eat dinner in a restaurant 3-5 times per week, and have a weekend road trip every month.
    3 points
  2. A little later today, I'll be off on my travels to Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Czechia, and Germany. I'm saying farewell to Zadar, just as yesterday it seemed to say farewell to me! I will pack my trusty laptop snugly in its favorite backpack, so that I grab it from time to time and work along the way, publishing Liquidity Trader, the Wall Street Examiner, and keeping our little group of friends here up to date on my thoughts about the daily market squiggles from time to time. I don't know how much posting I will be doing today. I'll be on a bus for 6 hours, heading from Zadar to Ljubljana, Slovenia. For now, at 3:15 AM in New York here's how the hourly ES chart looks. The same. The end. As in the same trend channel the market has been in since June 21. As in slight new highs. As in still with reverse head and shoulders breakout measured move targets of 4315 and 4350. The first is all but a done deal. The second looks likely too, just not this week. There's not enough fluctuation for a 5 day cycle projection. On a 2-3 day basis we're looking at 4308. They've broken through the top of the megaphone pattern at 4295. That and 4290 look like s-port. Breakouts of rising trendlines often signal acceleration, if they're not immediately reversed into a false breakout. A band of trendlines from 4301-05 should present resistance. If not, the next would be currently around 4315. They're all rising. Here comes the judge. Ciao! I'll check in whenever possible! If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Meanwhile, End Stage Rally Now The Balance Begins To Shift Gold Needs A Bounce
    2 points
  3. I don't believe in "pricing in." I also don't think about whether I'm a bull or a bear. I just do the math and report what it shows. The longer term projections are what they are because the liquidity balance is what it is. Yes, to your point, there's more and more supply. I factor that into the analysis. In fact, I warned more than a year ago that stock buybacks were a two way street, that eventually the tide would turn and companies would issue more stock than they buy back. As far as people's market sentiment, I learned a long, long time ago, that it means nothing. The consensus can be correct for a very long time. Bubbles can last indefinitely, especially when all of the world's central banks are promoting them. I learned two rules when I was very young. Don't fight the Fed, and Don't fight the tape, aka, The trend is your friend. When supply exceeds demand, I would expect the technical indicators to turn bearish. Until then the liquidity balance and the long term trend indicators rule. In addition to being a serious anal cyst, I like to entertain, and I need to sell. Attracting a new person to read my bombast sometimes entices them to subscribe to the service. Without subscribers, I starve and write a travel blog, and Capitalstool gets laid to rest. It is not my intention to irritate or argue with paying customers, that's for sure. I want everybody to be happy here. I will simply continue to calls them as I sees them, and hope that people are entertained, enlightened, and that they get it. Everybody knows that I'm not always right, and please know that I know it as well. More power to anyone who can profit on the short side of the market. They are better traders than I. I love bears. I'm a bear at heart. But I'm a technician at heart, and one of my jobs is to do my best to keep my bear friends from harm. I'm no John Hussman, or other permabears whose names I won't mention, constantly explaining why the market is wrong, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year. It's a disservice to the people who are paying you. The market isn't wrong. It just is. My job is to describe it, inform, enlighten, entertain, and be a friend.
    2 points
  4. I want to add a few more personal thoughts about the Ukraine situation, since it is in the news, and since we've seen some Russian anti-Biden propaganda on it. As you know, I am not a geopolitical anal cyst. I have a personal interest in this subject. I do research, collect and review facts to the extent that they're available, and form my personal opinion. I do so in the context of having paid attention to world affairs, to some extent, since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. I also have a smattering of knowledge of 20th century history pre-dating my personal experience. Some of that history is personal. For example, my grandparents lived under Russian rule. My grandfather was a conscript in the Russian Army during the period when Russia ruled not just the Ukraine, but also Poland, until 1920. In 1900 he and other members of my family fled the Russian instigated pogroms in Poland to come to the US. They left after the death of my great grandfather, and many other Jews, in the town of Makow Mazowiecky, that same year. What happened there that year that so many died, and my grandfather and brothers and sisters left? I don't know. There's no record. Russia has a history of being expansionist, imperialist, racist, and homicidal, regardless of who led the government. The historical record is unclear as to the exact number, but Stalin killed between 9 million and 25 million of his countrymen. By most accounts, he murdered more people than Hitler did. Today, Putin is promoting a rebirth of Stalinism. Meanwhile, Putin has rebuilt the Russian military into the second most powerful in the world. Ukraine is 25th. The whole notion that Ukraine could drive the Russian military out of Crimea and Donbass is laughably absurd. Ukraine knows it and Biden certainly knows it. So whoever is attempting to circulate that lie about Biden encouraging Ukraine to attack Russia won't get far. Ukraine would be inviting its own annihilation. Here are a few facts. Russia's military is 5 times the size of Ukraine's in manpower. It has 10 x the number of tanks, 20 x the number of jet fighters, 5 x the artillery, and 6x the number of rockets. Putin invaded the Crimea and took it over by force. Putin is amassing more Russian troops on the border with Ukraine right now. You don't think that Ukraine didn't resist the Russian attack and hasn't resisted its ongoing attacks for years? There's been a low grade war there ever since Putin invaded and took control of Crimea. Ukraine has no chance of winning. They know it. Putin especially knows it, and Biden, of all people, knows it. Ukraine is merely trying to hold the line. Donetsk has been perpetually under siege by Putin and his supporters there. I know someone who was forced to flee her home there to move in with a relative in Kiev in a one room apartment. I also know a woman whose husband, a Ukrainian military officer, was killed in the conflict. Ask these Ukrainians about how they feel about the Russians invading their homeland. Or how they felt living under Russian rule for most of their lives. Regardless of its government, Russia's modern history has been one of repression, corruption, manipulation, and aggression against its neighbors. Putin is just one of a long line of that type of ruler. Sadly, there are millions of outright fascists and quasi fascists all over the world willing to spew his lies and propaganda. Saddest of all is that so many "freedom loving" Americans are among their number. The Ukrainian government knows better than anyone that it has no hope of driving out Russian forces. In addition to Russian military might, the Russian government has indigenous support in the areas of Ukraine it currently controls. Just as the Confederacy does in the US. That doesn't make it right. Putin invaded a sovereign nation. He has devastated Ukraine. I know the sadness and devastation that Putin has caused in Ukraine. Not just there, but anywhere in the world where he reaches his dirty fingers. Putin took the Crimea because he wanted control of the military base on the Black Sea in Sevastapol, not because of ethnic ties. He did it for strategic purposes. Did it matter that he had lots of ethnic support in Crimea? Sure. He knew he could use this as an excuse and get away with it, because strategically no one could force him out once he moved in. Military aggression is military aggression. Ukraine has the right to defend its sovereign territory. But it knows that if it tries to eject the Russians it will lose, and Kiev will again fall under Russian control. That is Putin's goal, and I don't know that NATO, led by the US, has the ability or the will to stop him. I don't doubt that Putin might take this gamble. However, his calculation now must be far different than it would have been when he controlled the White House. An attack will further destabilize the world order. The growing worldwide slide toward authoritarianism will march on. All around the world, including the US, democracy is losing. Political freedom and the Rule of Law and Reason are in retreat. Lies, disinformation, and repression are gaining. We saw an example of it here yesterday. That makes me sad. It has no impact on the stock market.
    2 points
  5. The size of the Fed's balance sheet needs to be viewed in relation to supply of and demand for financial assets. That's the issue for us. The price of financial assets. The US Treasury creates so much supply of securities, that the market could NEVER absorb it on its own. The Fed must provide the demand. This started with the first TARP, which ironically the market was able to absorb on its own because there was so much panic that the world massively panicked INTO Treasuries. At that time, Primary Dealers were net short Treasuries. Fast forward a dozen years and everybody is filled to the gills with long Treasuries, and leveraged to the nth degree to carry them. Therefore the Fed must print enough money to buy enough or fund enough of the Treasury supply to keep prices high and yields low. Ever since QE1, the magic number has been 85-90%. The relentless drop in prices tells us that at that rate today, the Fed isn't creating sufficient demand to absorb enough supply to keep prices stable. Dealers and institutions are so stuffed with inventory and overleveraged that they can't take another dime of new supply. The market has been choking on this shit since last August. The Fed reduced emergency QE in July. Direct cause and effect. In other words, the Fed is too tight at the given level of supply. And supply will double soon. We're about to see the MMT crowd face their come to Jaysus moment. Then what will the Fed do, and when will it do it? Those are the two great questions. We answer them based on the Fed's historical behavior. The Fed is people. People behave in similar ways in similar situations.
    2 points
  6. IG Number Its a financial metric I invented. It quantifies the inflationary gift transfer of debt value in terms of a stocks value. Companies with high debt (long dated and fixed) have high IG numbers. The value of the debt is inflated away and transferred as value to the shareholders. This is currently 2% of debt per annum. So for a ten year bond 20% of its value is going to be transferred to the shareholders. But if inflation is 5% over the life of the bond 50% of its value gets transferred to shareholders. So the IG number depends on four factors: 1/ The average duration and rate of the debt. 2/ The size of the debt. 3/ The inflation rate. 4/ The size of the market cap in relation to the debt. Note banks and other lenders have negative IG numbers As an example. Say inflation goes to 10% over the next ten years. You buy the stock of a company with equity value of 20 mill and debt of 100 mill - (Ten year bond) Over the next ten years the value of the debt will be obliterated - say in real terms its 20 Mill in todays dollars in ten years time. The total value EV of the company increases to $240 million merely because of inflation after 10 years. The companies real value does not increase. The equity is after 10 years then worth $140 million ($240 minus the $100 debt) a 700% increase. Or about 21% per annum compound i.e. the equity value increases at a rate greater than inflation (10%) because of the inflationary gift of $80 million from the bond holders. The annual IG number is 11 (21-10). The annual percentage the stock will appreciate over the inflation rate because of the inflationary gift transfer.
    2 points
  7. What's the difference between bitcoin and tesla? What's the difference between cryto in general and stocks in general, other than those that pay dividends out of earnings? What are dividends, you say? Why, back in the 50s, that's why we bought stocks. To get the dividends. Nowadays, instead of paying dividends, companies buy back their stocks and that way they can pay the dividends to the executives who deserve them, rather than the ridiculous, do-nothing, stock holders. Besides, the buybacks make stocks go up. Dividends are so mid-century modern.
    2 points
  8. My superficial, uninvestigated, current working-hypothesis-since-breakfast-and-until-I-abandon-or-forget-it is that sharp declines in the cryptocurrency complex will be the bell rung at the top this cycle. I'm not a crypto-skeptic, per se. But I have done my formal studies of money & sovereignty. The gleeful (smug?) pile-in and emotional commitment to crypto (mainly by 20-something & 30-somethings?) is approaching "eyeball metric ca. 2000" analogous euphoridiocy(TM). The hyper-liquidity afforded a market for something no one can see, few can cogently describe & explain, but is certain victoriously to supplant established monetary alternatives seems... overwrought.
    2 points
  9. Yes, I'm with you Greg Fokker .. Over the last 20+ yrs I've worked my way through inheritances, superannuation, insurance payouts, etc. Just as well I own the roof over my head and have no debt or dependents. I'm not blaming the way the market performs: rather it's my own weaknesses and an over optimistic view of my abilities. I have worked hard to correct these and I think I see light at the end of the tunnel. Mind you I have said this before. In the meantime I pick up recyclables and cash them in, rent out rooms in my house on a casual basis and have a very modest lifestyle. I am eligible for the age pension if it comes to the crunch but I'm hoping to stay self supporting until I shuffle off this mortal coil. ๐Ÿ˜Ž
    2 points
  10. I believe my grandfather was also a wealthy man around the same time - also as the result of residential real estate. Eventually thereafter, however, according to my father born in 1923, the two would stand together in breadlines. Then, when things got worse, my father and his younger brother were shipped off to a pair of aunts who lived in the country, where he cleaned the chicken coup, but was properly fed. There's also an apocryphal story of his father piling the family into a car in the night and relocating from Detroit or Cleveland to Pittsburgh, as my grandfather sought to stay one step ahead of his creditors. My father talked of a childhood without sweets, and of watching men in suits dig up and replace cobblestones as part of the era's make-work projects. As the eldest son of an immigrant father, he was expected to take over the family business - but he went a different route and they had a falling out. As an academic, his salary along with my mom's was modest, but they saved and they were forever wise & conscientious about their money, a reaction to the deprivation of their youths. My mom's family was supported through the Depression by farmland in West Virginia to which they would make weekend recourse from Pittsburgh, land that had been in the family since at least the Civil War, when it was a stop on the Underground Railroad, then on paths that Confederate soldiers used to abandon their conscription and make their way across the Ohio River. This time last year at 96, he was still jumping on a local bus, coming to my house, and spending the day working in our garden, which he loved, topped off with an occasional gin martini before a family dinner together. But dementia does its swift work, and now he sits in memory care, with visits from my mom within the same senior facility, but alas, none from me since March because of COVID protocols to protect the elderly. The experience of his youth echoes financially through me, as preoccupations with long-tail risk and with saving $0.30 of every dollar earned. I am doing what I can to extend that echo to my sons... all with their origin from events on this date.
    2 points
  11. Hey there,it's been forever..... Hope everyone has been good.๐Ÿค‘
    2 points
  12. Do they bang a cowbell everytime the SPX crosses 4400...........
    1 point
  13. And buses recirculate the same air front to back.
    1 point
  14. Today is my last day in Zadar. I have such mixed emotions. I have just fallen in love with this place in the two stints I've lived here, totaling 12 of the past 18 months. I will miss it. But at the same time, I'm excited to see Ljubljana, Lake Bled, Bratislava, Vienna, Krakow, and Auschwitz--with a degree of dread, of course--on my way to Warsaw for a month. That will be my base for my ancestral research. I will visit the hometowns and birthplaces of my maternal grandparents, and look for evidence of earlier ancestors and possibly cousins who stayed behind and perished at the hands of the Nazis. Towards the end of summer into mid September, I'm planning a swing through southern Poland, Czechia, Germany, and the northern Polish seacoast. The trip as planned so far will include Zakopane a resort town in the southern mountains, where my friend has a condo, then Prague, Nuremburg, Leipzig, Dresden, Wroclaw (pronounced Vroetzwaf!), then north to the Baltic coast to the Tri-cities of Gdansk (pronounced Gdoinsk sort of๐Ÿ˜), Gdynia, and Sopot. It's an ambitious itinerary, but I love the nomadic lifestyle of exploration and discovery. I'll take a little break from regular publishing over the this Fourth of July weekend, but expect to maintain a fairly regular schedule other than that. The great thing about living in Europe, while serving an American market, is the 30 hour days. So I have time for both work and play. Just not for sleep. ๐Ÿ˜„ If you're interested, you can follow my photos at https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/
    1 point
  15. THE FEDS EXERCISE IN SCHRODINGIAN EXPANSION What is the FED doing right now?????? It is expanding the schrodingian uncertainty box where in lies its future actions. Creating maximum confusion as to its future actions. This of course is the oppposite to Schrodingian contraction. Its taper talk is just that ....talk. Synthetic Negative QE. I think the inflation trades are still good. Blackrock obviously agrees having just bought $6 billion in houses. Financed I presume with a lot of low rate long dated debt to give the investment a high J Number. The FED by its interest rate supression activites, money printing, direct bond buying and schrodingian expansion, is actually increasing the J number of this type of investment. After all if your Blackrock why not go along for the free ride provided by the FED.
    1 point
  16. i have to ask....how can this stock market be bailed out.... unless u are implying a "deep correction " first....
    1 point
  17. One could make an argument that Wall Street is going to use Bitcoin/Crypto as the fall guy if any deleveraging occurs. Same old Same old.
    1 point
  18. SInce the 10 year has gone from 0.5 to 1.7, the TLT has lost 22%.
    1 point
  19. 1 point
  20. 10 Year 1.63. Where's the rally?
    1 point
  21. PPI just went over like a lead balloon. 10 Year Yield hourly.
    1 point
  22. Busted. 2-3 day cycle projection 4080
    1 point
  23. I had a market letter with them that I called Marketrac . Back then it was tres chi chi to drop the k after the c. I have no idea why. Maybe I did it because I didn't want it to look like Market Rack. Like a cheap discount store or something.
    1 point
  24. I love Metastock. I've used it for 39 years! I started with it when I was a salesman/anal cyst with Herzfeld and Stern back in 1982.
    1 point
  25. By staying home another year! I'm hoping to ump little league in April with my 14 year old son - him behind the plate, me in the field. We did it several times together in summer 2019... being vaccinated will give me peace of mind. Apart from travel, the thing I've missed most through this all is the wonderful innocent stupidity of youth sports. This was the year my sons were both in junior high at the same time and could play on a soccer team together... but pandemic had other plans. I will never forgive COVID depriving me watching them play on a team together.
    1 point
  26. Well, I don't know of course. But my gut says that it's starting. Have a great weak end. I'll be around! Ciao!
    1 point
  27. A week ago a friend's ex husband died of Covid. Today her father died. That's 6 people I know of who have died. My friend had it for a several weeks and was deathly ill at one point. She's recovering. This sucks.
    1 point
  28. Just ahead of pandemic lockdown, we moved my parents into a senior facility nearby. My dad - 96 - was moved into memory care last May when he was found trying to wander away at 1:30am in the morning. Born into poverty of the Depression, he cleaned his great aunts' chicken coops as a 6 year old to make his keep with them when his father couldn't support my dad and his brother; then World War II. Things improved wildly thereafter. He lived a preposterously full life. At 95, he was still catching the bus up to our place, staying fit by working in our garden, having a periodic martini before dinner. The last 10 years of his life were all on the Casino's money. I was thinking of him with my quip.
    1 point
  29. Bonds are crashing. Will stonks follow? My answer to that question since I began forecasting a bond crash months ago has been, Yes. The question is when. That I can't answer, which is why I do TA every day. I'm always looking for those signs of trend change. Last week I wasn't getting them. I doubted that the selloff would stick, so with my weekly chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers, I ignored the many stonks with sell signals from the screens, added no shorts, and kept adding longs. I did so because the sell signals were virtually universally in the context of uptrends. That usually means you get a short pullback, then the BTFD crowd comes in and the rallies resume. Which is exactly what happens. I'll short em, when those uptrends have built top patterns. Before that, trying to pick exact tops is a fools errand. OK, I'm a fool, but I'm lazy. I don't like to do errands. At this point, my decision to avoid shorts and add longs looks to have been the correct judgement and strategy. Many of the 14 longs that I added to the chart pick list two weeks ago, and the 5 more last week did get stopped out in the selloff. But those that have remained are running, and have made up for the small stopout losses. I'm definitely on tenterhooks here, however. I've given all of the picks simple trailing stop formulas raising the stops by a fixed amount each day, following the trendlines upward. A hard down day would take most of them out with nice profits. But if the market keeps running, we stay in and ride the trend, until it does break. As a young man looking to build my fortune for a wealthy retirement****, Lee- in front of the Croatian central bank last summer, for a Croatian business magazine. ***Attention new guests. This is a SARCASM ALERT. Repeat. This is a SARCASM ALERT. I have been using the daily technical screens for my own trading account. Early yesterday, seeing opportunity, as a new acolyte of Ron Germy Segal, of the the Whoreton School, at the U of P, I built a broadly diversified portfolio of STONKS FOR THE LONG HOLE. They ended the day nicely profitable. I am nervous as shit about it. But, like my underwear, I don't want my stops too tight, either. You need to give the things room to breathe, both in your underwear, and your stonks portfolio. At least for now. The 5 day cycle projection yesterday was 3945-50. That has now risen to 3970-75. Click to engorge The measured move target of the inverse head and shoulders breakout was also 3975. Do I think we'll get there? Well, I hate to say it, but since I'm holding only longs, I hope so. But alas, hope is the enema of the trader. We know what comes after the enema. To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $41 Billion Next Week Bulletin! Treasury Paying Down $55 BILLION RIGHT NOW to AVERT CATASTROPHE! Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse Primary Dealers are Already Dead Primary Dealers are Dead โ€“ Part 2 โ€“ Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears FREE REPORT โ€“ Proof of How QE Works โ€“ Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money
    1 point
  30. Sell treasuries and buy up choo-choo trains. Then, lease access to the most substantial rail intersection I could.
    1 point
  31. Sell treasuries and buy up choo-choo trains. Then, lease access to the most substantial rail intersection I could.
    1 point
  32. S&P futures are mounting another comeback attempt this morning in Europe, aided by $55 billion in quasi QE from the US Treasury yesterday, with another $41 billion coming tomorrow and $25 billion next Wednesday, However, the US stock market still has not shown that it can make a higher high in this trend of the past week. It needs to reach 3893 to do that. Before getting to that level, the ES would need to clear several areas of indicated resistance at 3878, 3883, and 3890. Hourly indicators are in a pause. If they roll over from here, I would expect at least a test of yesterdays low of 3805, or worse. If they resume upticking, with ES passing 3878, then a run back to 3900 would be in order, over the next day or two. The 5 day cycle projection currently points to around 3910, but that would be moot if they can't get past 3878. Click to engorge The downtrend has been a volatile, unholy mess, setting up trendlines, then breaking them soon after. The instability is a hallmark of a market that is short of liquidity. The Treasury has stepped in to try to ameliorate that with these massive T-bill paydowns, which I'll call quasi QE. They definitely inject cash into the markets, by redeeming T-bills held by dealers, banks, investment funds, and others. This is unlike actual Fed QE, which passes into the markets strictly via the accounts of the Primary Dealers at the Fed. The Treasury and the Fed desperately want the dealers and investors getting this cash back to redeploy it in the mid to long end of the Treasury market, which is under severe crisis. Look at the daily chart of the TLT, the 20 year Treasury ETF, and you get an idea. The TLT is now down 17.5% since last August. Dealers have historically enormous long Treasury inventories, which are leveraged to the hilt. Virtually all of this paper is bought and held using repo financing. Imagine what has happened to the value of these leveraged dealer inventories, where much of the inventory has been acquired at higher prices. Imagine them getting hit with collateral calls from their lenders day in and day out. If you can imagine that, you understand why this trend is accelerating, and why the Treasury is now taking desperation measures to try to stop it. The Fed will soon follow. How will the market react. We have seen this crisis developing for many months. It's now happening. I tell the story in more detail, with charts, explanation, analysis, forecast and strategy discussions every week at Liquidity Trader. Because we are paying attention to the things that matter, we usually see critical trends developing 3-6 months before they hit the radar of the mainstream media. That gives you an advantage. Try the service risk free for 90 days. To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $41 Billion Next Week Bulletin! Treasury Paying Down $55 BILLION RIGHT NOW to AVERT CATASTROPHE! Treasury Joins Fed to Try to Prevent Imminent System Collapse Primary Dealers are Already Dead Primary Dealers are Dead โ€“ Part 2 โ€“ Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears FREE REPORT โ€“ Proof of How QE Works โ€“ Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money
    1 point
  33. Every now and again, I used to miss Wndysrf's psycho ex-girlfriend stories. Now I just look at the GME chart for a hearty does of insanity.
    1 point
  34. Gamestop call option action today was a giant bell tolling very, very loudly.
    1 point
  35. As it turned out, it was projectile vomit.
    1 point
  36. The Dow Theory is not a technical indicator. That was a subsequent bastardization of its original intent to be an economic indicator. A Dow Theory confirmation implies nothing about the market's future. For that, we need to do actual TA. The market is going higher. ๐Ÿ˜„ From Zadar, Croatia, have a half decent weekend if you can. Good night, and good luck.
    1 point
  37. One word. Blockchain. It's the future.
    1 point
  38. As of this morning, the ES fucutures, representing the broad big cap US market, are at a price level it first reached on December 4. Reminds me of the old stock market adage, up the escalator, down the elevator. One day, we're gonna get the shaft. Without the elevator cab. Those daily oscillators aren't looking too sprightly either. At the moment, the ES has settled on the centerline of the channel that began forming from the November 9 peak. A little lower here and they should plunge right to the bottom of the channel now around 3625. Of course, they might hold at the current level, which would mean base building toward a new high, and possibly even a breakout from the channel. I cover those exigencies here. Meanwhile, our usual hourly bar chart perspective is maddeningly uncertain. Could be a 2-3 day cycle low with the rest of the 5 day cycle down phase still to come. Or it could be something else. I can't tell. It's just too ambiguous. The parameters to watch for a sign would be downtrending resistance now around 3700 at 7 AM in NY, and support at 3680. Breaking out of that triangle should signal the next significant intraday move. I'll have a Liquidity Trader update for you a little later. This is the most recent. Ciao for now!
    1 point
  39. From Zadar, Good night, and good luck!
    1 point
  40. CONTAINER RATES FROM ASIA TO US RISE The US tsunami of government spending and FED printing to cover that spending has led to a boom in imports from asia. Hence freight rates rise. Dollar is dumped by Asian exporters leading to dollar fall. Rince wash repeat. This does nothing for the US economy. But its great for asian economies.
    1 point
  41. Excellent question. Where they gonna flee to? Buying "stuff?" Fine. You exchange cash for "stuff." But whoever sold you the "stuff," whether stocks, bonds, real estate, or guns and canned goods, now has the deposit. ON THE OTHER HAND! YOU CAN ALSO GET RID OF YOUR CASH BY USING IT TO PAY OFF DEBT! Then the deposits are extinguished. Deleveraging equals the death of the system. The Fed's main job is to keep that from happening. I cover this issue on an ongoing basis at Liquidity Trader. Like this one. The Search for The Primary Dealer Holy Grail 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER DECEMBER 15, 2020 To those of you who don't subscribe, like Mikey said, "Try it, you'll like it!" 90 days frisk fee for first time subs.
    1 point
  42. I guess it's all about Monday's low (3420). Unless that get's smashed....
    1 point
  43. Going through my stock screens this morning, I was shocked at how bullish the output was. Chart after chart. Sells were few and far between. I think we're going to have to grit our teeth for awhile. But this isn't a surprise. We knew for a couple months that the liquidity outlook for October was very bullish. Last night, I left you with the 5 day cycle projection on the ES fucutures of 3485. Overnight they got to 3459. Now the 5 day cycle projection is 3500. Lordy, lordy. As I write at 4:35 AM ET, they're sitting on an uptrend channel line at 3449. As of 9:30 AM the line will be at 3460. Gotta break that for any hope of a reversal. Uptrending resistance is now around 3459, 3470-75. If they clear those consider 3500 a done deal. I'll be trading from the long side again today unless something radical happens. I caught that one breakout yesterday, and spent the rest of the day floundering, dipping toes in the water. The sharks bit them off. Later!
    1 point
  44. Get a load of this. Does it look bullish to you? Hourly bar chart. Well, I suppose it could be. The 5 day cycle projection could be 3410, or it could be 3430. Neither was reached. But the hourly momentum and cycle indicators have edged to the sell side. On the 30 minute bars you can see that the ES has dropped to the uptrend channel line at 3380 just after 4 AM in NY. That line rises to 3390 at the NY open. Break that line and they head for multiple possible support levels that could generate a bounce or act like butter against a hot knife 3378, 3373, 3365, and 3350. One of those will generate a bounce. Take your pick. I'm showing the indicators and parameters on this chart. It's a little cluttered, but if you want to set up a tracking chart using those parameters, feel free. I assume that everyone here has their own favorite charting platform. These are common indicators that can be set up in any of them, including most broker chart platforms that I've seen. Here's the 2 hour bar perspective. The negative divergences over the past week, with new downturns here now, are "interesting." But of course, they prove nothing. I come in this morning a tad short. I'll let you know whether I decide to go heavy long, heavy short, or heavy flat ASIK. Yesterday I furiously shorted the market at the open. By 10:30 I had a nice profit. I spent the rest of the day working diligently to dissipate that, setting out on one fishing expedition after another. I lost a few shekels every time. By 3 PM, I was successful in turning my profit into a loss for the day. But I continued to overtrade for the last hour, trading up to 7 stocks at a time. By the close I was successful in closing out all my losers, leaving just one short that had broken down. Woo hoo. I ended the day with a profit. $15. Not 15 points. $15. ๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚๐Ÿ˜‚ I should stick to analysis and writing. Those who can do, and those who can't teach. ๐Ÿ˜‰
    1 point
  45. It occurs to me that most people won't get the Weekend at Bernie's reference. Not everyone is as old as I am.
    1 point
  46. Overseas investors apparently were not impressed. Although here at 4:20 AM NY time, they've cut the loss in the fucutures in half. Again, interesting perspective from the 2 hour bars. They cleared the big downtrend channel twice, early and late. They couldn't stick, so after hours, they broke this week's uptrend. Now, we're in a no man's land. Two numbers to watch on the upside are 3320 and 3335. If they can't clear those, then this new little downtrend channel is confirmed. On the other hand, if they drop below 3280, before NY opens, then we could be in crash mode. And the 1 hour bars. If you consider the whole width of the chart, it looks like a huge base, if they hold above 3293. If it doesn't, then they'll probably target 3270 or 3245 next. Today is a huge day in terms of liquidity. About as bearish as it gets. And by the way, if Nancy and Mr. Minuskaching do manage to get a new pandemiconomic relief bill passed, it will be very bearish for stocks. Mr. Minuschinโ€™s Erection To Boost The Election 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER SEPTEMBER 26, 2020 We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October. But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. Thereโ€™s no visibility. We donโ€™t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. Thatโ€™s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fedโ€™s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect. Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we donโ€™t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things. Here they are. Subscribers, click here to download the report Not a subscriber yet? Get this report and access to all past and future reports risk free for 90 days!
    1 point
  47. In sticking with my thesis of AMZN as proxy for COVID-19 rally I was worried yesterday that it signaled 'its over'. All day there have been few bids. Jimi what do you call this reversal.
    1 point
  48. My screens spit out a couple of bullish charts that are interesting here. LLY pulled back to its two hunnert. If it holds, it's a good BTFD. If not. oh well.
    1 point
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