In short, no. You do not see armies of homeless people in Croatia like you do in US cities. Croatia is a poor country, but they seem to have ways of housing their poorest and most needy, unlike the US.
I'm not familiar with their social services beyond their health care system, which I have paid to use on occasion. The facilities are right out of the socialist era, not palatial monuments to excess like in the US. But care seems good. Medical professionals are highly trained. They have modern equipment, and at least in Zagreb, there are plenty of medical specialists to treat particular di
I don't believe in "pricing in." I also don't think about whether I'm a bull or a bear. I just do the math and report what it shows. The longer term projections are what they are because the liquidity balance is what it is.
Yes, to your point, there's more and more supply. I factor that into the analysis. In fact, I warned more than a year ago that stock buybacks were a two way street, that eventually the tide would turn and companies would issue more stock than they buy back.
As far as people's market sentiment, I learned a long, long time ago, that it means nothing. The consensus
I want to add a few more personal thoughts about the Ukraine situation, since it is in the news, and since we've seen some Russian anti-Biden propaganda on it.
As you know, I am not a geopolitical anal cyst. I have a personal interest in this subject. I do research, collect and review facts to the extent that they're available, and form my personal opinion. I do so in the context of having paid attention to world affairs, to some extent, since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
I also have a smattering of knowledge of 20th century history pre-dating my personal experience. Some of th
The size of the Fed's balance sheet needs to be viewed in relation to supply of and demand for financial assets. That's the issue for us. The price of financial assets.
The US Treasury creates so much supply of securities, that the market could NEVER absorb it on its own. The Fed must provide the demand. This started with the first TARP, which ironically the market was able to absorb on its own because there was so much panic that the world massively panicked INTO Treasuries. At that time, Primary Dealers were net short Treasuries.
Fast forward a dozen years and everybody is filled
Its a financial metric I invented.
It quantifies the inflationary gift transfer of debt value in terms of a stocks value.
Companies with high debt (long dated and fixed) have high IG numbers.
The value of the debt is inflated away and transferred as value to the shareholders.
This is currently 2% of debt per annum.
So for a ten year bond 20% of its value is going to be transferred to the shareholders.
But if inflation is 5% over the life of the bond 50% of its value gets transferred to shareholders.
So the IG number depends on four factors:
What's the difference between bitcoin and tesla?
What's the difference between cryto in general and stocks in general, other than those that pay dividends out of earnings?
What are dividends, you say?
Why, back in the 50s, that's why we bought stocks. To get the dividends. Nowadays, instead of paying dividends, companies buy back their stocks and that way they can pay the dividends to the executives who deserve them, rather than the ridiculous, do-nothing, stock holders. Besides, the buybacks make stocks go up. Dividends are so mid-century modern.
My superficial, uninvestigated, current working-hypothesis-since-breakfast-and-until-I-abandon-or-forget-it is that sharp declines in the cryptocurrency complex will be the bell rung at the top this cycle.
I'm not a crypto-skeptic, per se. But I have done my formal studies of money & sovereignty.
The gleeful (smug?) pile-in and emotional commitment to crypto (mainly by 20-something & 30-somethings?) is approaching "eyeball metric ca. 2000" analogous euphoridiocy(TM).
The hyper-liquidity afforded a market for something no one can see, few can cogently describe & expla
Yes, I'm with you Greg Fokker .. Over the last 20+ yrs I've worked my way through inheritances, superannuation, insurance payouts, etc. Just as well I own the roof over my head and have no debt or dependents. I'm not blaming the way the market performs: rather it's my own weaknesses and an over optimistic view of my abilities. I have worked hard to correct these and I think I see light at the end of the tunnel. Mind you I have said this before. In the meantime I pick up recyclables and cash them in, rent out rooms in my house on a casual basis and have a very modest lifestyle. I am elig
I believe my grandfather was also a wealthy man around the same time - also as the result of residential real estate. Eventually thereafter, however, according to my father born in 1923, the two would stand together in breadlines. Then, when things got worse, my father and his younger brother were shipped off to a pair of aunts who lived in the country, where he cleaned the chicken coup, but was properly fed. There's also an apocryphal story of his father piling the family into a car in the night and relocating from Detroit or Cleveland to Pittsburgh, as my grandfather sought to stay one ste
Blackrock is managing the fund. The trades will be executed, as usual, with Primary Dealers. The Fed put out a list of accepted counterparties, and at a quick glance, virtually all of them were Primary Dealers.
The direct outright purchases of individual corporates is a new wrinkle. Previously the Fed was only going to buy ETFs.
The size of these transactions is less than a rounding error relative to regular OMO.
While I think that a Green New Deal is a good idea in theory, and I greatly admire AOC, that bit you wrote about AOC having a proxy from the Treasury is loony tunes
This won't be useful to anyone for any purpose whatsoever but: not only do I not know where the market will go nor what to do about my various positions, commitments, bets and wagers, but I also have no clue about the likely or unlikely outcomes of the pandemic, the protests, the police, the social compact, international relations, my future as either a salaried employee, a consultant or a punter, the future of my neighbourhood, or whether things are about to get cataclysmically worse or exponentially better.
In fact, I don't know whether to shit or steal third.
All I know is that
I'm renting a car to drive down to Zadar today to look at an apartment by the sea. There are some amazing bargains. If I have to stay another month, which looks likely, I'd like to be seaside this time of year.
Little Croatia reported no new COVID19 cases yesterday and only 109 active cases nationwide. True? I don't know. But for the time being the country has removed virtually all restrictions on movement and business activity. I will continue to wear my hermetically sealed coffee filter mask with antimicrobial electrostatic cover while out and about.
So, they've apparently successfully publicly leveraged the private leverage that was previously leveraged against the massive public package of leverage from the last leveraged-leverage rescue.
I read that on "3,600 Seconds" last night, that Mr. Powell ("Do you mind if I call you 'an inter-generational bagman and an immoral piece-of-crap' as shorthand for 'Chairman'?") said we'll eventually pay the trillions in new loans that are being used to make whole the trillions in old loans, in a private-public swap that not even the devil would have entertained.
Lord knows (to borr
Thanks. You can share it from here or WSE.
There are two ways to share a post from the board. You can share the thread, using the share icon at the top of the thread. Or you can share the post. Click the 3 dots at the top right of the post. This is a link to options. The first one is share. Click that and select the mode you want to use.
Slick, but hidden.
When I first opened my intraday chart today I saw this and thought, "Oh mygawd. It's over."
Knowing that I had left massive long positions in my trading account overnight, I immediately went into atrial fibrillation and started having chest pains. I chewed 6 aspirin, grabbed my English-Croatian reverse dictionary, and got ready to call 112, which is the European number to call in an emergency.
But I collected myself, saying ok, Lee, Breathe. It's 3 positions totaling less than $10,000. We can handle a loss on 10% account exposure, on a 0.63% move. Let's see, that's .000063 of
My life has changed in ways that are almost unbelievable. Not all deprivation. Some for sure, but I've gained some things too.
I am, for now, one of the fortunate ones. In some ways, not having family in these times, is a benefit.
My goal is to stay alive, and get healthier and healthier, so that I can still take advantage of the waning time available to me.
I absolutely love your writing style....I get the humor because I have been in the business since 1992. Its been trench warfare from day one. To stay out of all these bubbles and manias has been difficult. Your writing style and views has made these markets much more palatable. At this point, my concern is confidence in the system itself. This is a risk most will not know how to handle.
Fact check: "True."
Started accumulating various miner shares beginning ~2001. There was no GDX or GDXJ yet, so I assembled a basket of them on my own. We bought our house from our landlady in April 2011, and March of that year was a fortuitous moment to sell out our PM stocks...
... and plough into Bay Area real estate.
It was either the most or second-most expensive property to transact in our area code in 2011. If it is the only investment decision I get right, which sometimes feels the case, it will still leave my wife & me with a cushion of financial
A BAD CASE OF SHOOT THE MESSENGER
And right on que Wall Street Bets is targeted for destruction by the powers that be.
The Long short funds are in a very tight spot.
Their shorts are deeply underwater.
Which they need to get out of as quickly and as painlessly as possible.
And because their survival is at stake they won't play fair.
Que Wall Street Bets destruction.
But now there vulnerrabilty has been displayed for all to see.
It will attract bigger and hungrier predators to the feast.
Instead of just the swarm of wall street bets pirahners.
THE FED's YEILD CURVE CONTROL
The Fed has been exercising yeild curve control since September 2019 when it started the REPO flood to bail out the wall street banks which had lent too much to the hedge funds which were using the repo money to lever up and go long bonds.
The current calmness in the REPO market suggests that it worked for this purpose.
The hedge funds have delevered.
Of course it set of a stock market mania that is still in full swing.
The party now requires a constant avalanche on money printing and bond buying to keep going.
I rarely day trade, but Friday I got the bug after a couple nice little trades on the short side earlier in the week, particularly a short of JPM which I covered Wednesday. Came in short GS Friday and covered it mid morning with a small profit. Had a few longs, and added mightily through mid day. I told you about chickening out on long TDOC, which is killing me. No conviction. I'm watching it for a BTFD moment.
I had 8 trades going into the last hour Friday. I kept trying to short a couple into the rally because I was 100% long and I couldn't tolerate that. But trying to short that was l
Tokyo hits the 48% seroprevalence mark with a low fatality rate. A drop in new cases seems to indicate they have reached herd immunity:
You were smart to buy the air filter. I thought no way this would last this long so we didn't get one. Instead I bought two generators this spring thinking I'd be all set for the PG&E outages this summer. Turns out I picked the wrong prophylactic! So at this point I'm hoping the smoke cures COVID-19 so there will be an upside
DAX at 12300, absolutely exploding, bomb da base upwards...
low was 79xx back in March in that DAX overnight instrument ("German30" or how those CFD brokers call it)
Lessons learned (not that we didn't know this already, but sometimes have to clap on your own backhead):
Even in the hardest imaginable times technicals rule. It is simply amazing how this whole mess could have been traded on plain vanilla technical chart analysis: Channels, a ROC and a few MA's you prefer and congestion areas. That's it. Truly amazing.
Liquidity situation of course important, but it is more a
THE FED RECAPITALISED WALL STREET
[alternative title: Not a Care in the World].
No good crisis should go to waste.
Surprised there has'nt been more discussion of the CARE Act which sets aside $454 Billion to bail out wall street.
The Fed will print $454 billion in electronic dollars.
It will then buy $454 Billion of US treasuries.
The US Treasury will then give the money back to the FED.
The Fed will then put it in a SIV which it can leverage 10 to 1.
The SIV will then buy all the toxic crap from Wall Street presumably at 100 cents in the dollar.