The screaming has started.
Yes the torrent of fed criticism has begun.
More and more public pressure will be placed on the fed to pivot.
But pivoting is no solution.
It will just lead to more inflation.
There are no good solutions left.
Can't wait for the requisite Cramer meltdown to "do something".
The fed has just let the market find its own level on rates.
The calls to pivot are profoundly anti market.
I did the thing today that brings me the most joy and which is the greatest use of my fleeting time on this dumpster-fire planet.
I sat next to my wife somewhere and we watched our boy play baseball.
Life is good.
Glad to hear your procedure went well. Great call on the markets. Been following closely. I am in the metals business and what we are seeing are premiums on products across the board are rising on the bid and offer side. Although the paper price is going down, rising premiums are offsetting some of the pain. Number of large wholesalers are running out of inventory.
Some have waited longer. I am sure there were social message groups (via taverns) 200 years ago thinking the British pound was going to devalue.
GBP to USD to move from 5 to 1 - Historical run of the GBP
Early 1800s: 5
Napoleonic Wars: 3.62
US Civil War: 10
1949 devaluation: 2.8
BoP crisis: 2.4
Vietnam War: 2.65
Oil crisis: 1.58
Plaza Accord: 1.05
Which is why I can absolutely can comprehend the chart that TCG posts that refer back to "The Greenspan Ramp" as our ultimate destination. Because those were the earliest fuse-pennies that purchased sham prosperity.
I just looked up when I registered here at Doc's board... and it was "two decades" ago.
That was about the time that it all stopped making sense to me... not that it ever really did before anyway. There seemed others here who thought it was all nuts... The casual recourse to short-term policy "fixes" that seemed certain later to impose uncertain but larger cost.
Pennies jammed endlessly in fuse boxes.
Perhaps Powell understands there is no more road down which to kick the can?
seems 2500 on the [email protected] 500 will bring in a banking crisis. Too much collateral devaluation for the banking system at that point.
new name for the S&P 500 at that point will be
Shit & Piss blood 500
I think that the vast majority still doesn‘t get what the real catastrophe regarding financial markets in 2022 is: It is the Bond crash. This has such huge implications for all kinds of whales, insurances conglomerates and whatnot. It is simply a tidal shift of habits which were in place for DECADES, I repeat: DECADES.
See, REAL money gives a shit about ARKK, Robinhood, Teladoc, GME, 24 year old house flippers or whatever.
If the FED doesn‘t reverse soon the implications for the markets will be of epic and catastrophic proportions. You see it already with the Euro, the Pound, Real Estate and so on. The June low will break and then 3000 comes in sight. Now EVERYONE on earth thinks that 3k would be the absolute low, „only if we get a deep recession“ they say. Why??? If the FED doesn‘t reverse in the foreseable future they can be happy if 2000 holds…
Payrolls are typically paid either weekly, bi weekly, or twice a month. The largest collections are at the end of the month. Likewise, in between, day to day, the collections are volatile. So if you compare a partial month to a complete month, you may get a whacky result.
There's also the problem of collections that differ in the same month year to year because they both may not end on a weekday. And using reporting days vs. calendar days also can cause a skew since a huge percentage of US workers have 7 day work weeks.
Last year, weekly payers would have made their last deposit for September on October 1. So that would reduce the September total below what was actually earned in September. Also, this year by only comparing collections through 9/21, you are including 6 weekend days. 6 * 30/21 = 8.6. Last year's full month would have included earnings for 8 weekend days.
So there are a lot of ways for there to be a haywire result using your method. Even a direct month to month calendar method often has wacky results. A little smoothing using fixed time periods corrects for that, with the downside being that it does result in a lag of a week or so. That's usually not a problem if you apply TA to the chart.
In the end I have always felt that good analysis requires a visual. Numbers alone just don't do it for me. TA works just as well on economic series as it does on prices, maybe even better.
The recent trend on that chart is pretty clear. That's why I immediately saw a red flag in your post.
When analyzing data, in comparing time periods always be sure to compare like to like, and make a visual. Seeing is believing. That's why I put tons of charts in my reports. I need to see it.
Could be in a 5 day cycle up phase here. I'd expect it to be weak, followed by a crash in a day or two. Still a 5 day cycle low projection of 3620. Although we got close enough for a DCB.
Meanwhile, back at the big picture:
Stock Market in Crash Mode September 26, 2022
Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022
Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022
Small Comfort for Gold Holders September 23, 2022
Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022
There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022
Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022
Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022
Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022
“As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022
Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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Good afternoon ph...
(sometimes 4.50) was a typo. It should have read (sometimes 7.50)...it's been corrected.
A few months back I mentioned a pearl of wisdom that I passed along to a former protege(circa 2008). A couple of months later I followed up with this chart to conclude the story. .
Here it is...
Can you Believe it...Now? Part II - August 20, 2022.
Have a good weekend...
I'd been looking to see if the jump this week was going to stick. It did. That's a lot of money. Somebody or a lot of somebody's trust the Fed more than the markets I'm guessing. As in confidence in performing a trade?
Wow, it's been 35 years since Prector got famous with his Grand Super Cycle. What has driven this cycle? Energy. At least consider that the economy is an energy system, not a money system. I'm in the the some of both schools. energy+money=economy, but one would be remiss I think if you don't consider this.
In this telling then, of cycles and the economy, this one started around 1750 with the steam engine. If we had limitless cheap energy we would have limitless wealth. We don't. We won't.
I find myself not entirely identifying with Prof. Siegel's indignation. He thought the June lows were the lows, and said future surprises were likely to be to the upside... only 11 days ago.
Maybe his indignation is actually to a margin call...?
Keep making those solar panel's fellas!
I believe one of my first comments on this forum had to do with metals and oil. I said the oil price during the pandemic should be a rather decent arbiter of what to expect in the PAPER price of silver.
I no longer own businesses because of two factors. I have no need for one...and they're too time consuming. Like a child who refuses to grow up. Although...in the metals business(of which I have a multi generational background in farming, metals AND fabrication)...I still have many friends.
Some of those friends are involved in the precious metals and they've been repeating the same words you now just penned. These are seasoned men with a minimum of 50 years experience each(I was actually sitting on the knees of several of these men during the 70's run)...and...they've done nothing but repeat to me these same words for what feels like...going on years. One gentlemen who I trust with my life, he is in his 90's and his collections would rival anyone on this planet. His complaint as of late has been. TCG...."The good stuff is tucked away and I don't see it coming loose anytime soon".
Sooner...or probably later(too late for most) it will all come together into the perfect storm.
Although...if we do get ourselves too far into a financial contagion...it might alter the dynamic(aka: the point of entry). This is why, you'll hear me say. Cash is king - for now(AND in demand, my bonds guy says shortages too!). You have to have SOME cash available to buy from those who are coughing up their assets(into the streets). Please recall...I hail from the land of Buffett. "We always have cash...if you're in distress." Do you understand me? I told my own past students to short the market...and raise cash while continuing to DCA into the metals(and miners, not yet though, but start testing the water AFTER the distress period we are in now. I personally prefer the Royalty model) on weakness using the strategies I taught them.
I believe I've said this before, but it does bear repeating ph. I'm here to comment only because I like people and I want to see everyone do well, but ESPECIALLY the blue collar worker or the guy who's trying to feed his family.
That is why I'm spending my time commenting. No other reason. Period.
I'm going to say it again...If you're not a millionaire, or since this is 2022. If you don't have more than 10 million...socking away the silver metal hand over fist, seems...more than reasonable. Afterall...the premium on sealed boxes isn't getting any smaller. Although...the lower your cost basis, the higher your eventual multiple. Hence...my repeated call for...patience. Also, it must be said. Let the rich guys play in paper. A steady diet of raising Cash and DCA into the metals(until opportunities arise in shares) should suffice even the least patient individuals among us. I'll say it again. Patience. Pays.
I know guys like to toss numbers around to sound important and knowledgeable. I don't like to do that...unless I thoroughly understand the argument "before" I set my feet down that path. I don't open my mouth until I feel reasonably certain of being correct because I always hold myself publicly accountable for every call I make. I'm the type of person who is harder on himself than anyone else could be. Do you understand this?
I assure you I'm not perfect...not even close, but I also don't need to retract my statements on a regular basis.
Because I weigh my words carefully.
With that said...
"I'm fairly certain we'll see 150 to 160 in silver and depending on how it is obtained...that may or may not be the top. At this time...I do not know - for certain. I'll need to see at least the first stage of the advance before I can make an exact determination."
I'll stand on that.
Now...how about gold? I use a different model for gold and I cannot come up with anything more than a guess until I see this bottom. Once we've bottomed, you'll see me repeatedly mentioning a target objective...and then(again) refining that objective until(and through) the first advance.
By the time of the 3rd wave in both....I'll be firing on all cylinders.
Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9(sometimes 7.50), or 4.
I've already made my guess, now...I'll just let the "pattern" in the ^HUI define my thoughts going forward vs telling the market what to do with my own opinion.
jimi...thanks for the well wishes. Not out of the woods yet, sore as hell...will comment as I can.
Everyone...While I haven't been able to talk about "measuring from the center to the outside" as much as I'd like. I would now like you to go back to my chart that I posted today(and ph quoted) and take another look at the ^HUI. See how it encircles itself around 200? You see that swing point we just took out today? Let's call that a "Head". Now...look up to the top of the range back at 325? Now look back at the head and then back to the top, 125? Then consider my words from the last few days? Think it all over. Let's watch this unfold...together.
I get wildly seasick... like my father... like my sons. It's an inherited inner-ear thing. I once got myself carsick as the driver going up to Point Reyes. So... the very last purchase I would ever make is a floating vessel... and if I did, it would be a barge loaded with dramamine.
But in the "I wanna buy a distressed asset' department, I recently learned the below, which also has the added prospect of a "Golden Visa":
I do love to eat fish, and Lisbon is a lovely city, and I can convince myself that learning Portuguese would be fun.
Nice is a very laid back place. It is a wealthy city by European standards, and one of the most popular summer resorts in the world. I noticed many more Americans here than usual this year as the USD has strengthened against the euro. It used to be an anomaly to hear Americans in the street. Now it's so common, I don't even turn my head. Most tourists come from the north. For the French, the Riviera is the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons rolled into one.
And of course you know about Monaco, which is 12 miles from here.
The French Riviera has long been a haven for the Russian oligarchs. They've disappeared this year. Far fewer super yachts in the yacht basins.
September is still considered high season, but it is not the same as August. It's about half as busy here now as in the first two weeks of August.
So, yes, the stresses are not as apparent here as in the rest of Europe.
FxFox lives in Germany. He's a native and in better position to have his finger on the pulse of the popular mood in Europe. Given the German perspective on inflation, that would be interesting.
I just don't have the contact with the media here that the locals do.
I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer.
I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French.