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Sigh. For someone who worked for GS, that guy's ignorance is astounding. BILLS ARE ALWAYS PAID DOWN IN APRIL AND MAY. ALWAYS WITHOUT EXCEPTION. Net bill paydown of $245 B is light. Last year was an exception because the lifted the debt ceiling after Treasury cash hit zero so they had net issuance. 2022 $360B paydowns. 2021 $412 B. And the RRPs were being withdrawn in December with virtually no net issuance.

I just hope democracy prevails in the US. An authoritarian US under Trump would be an unprecedented danger for the world. Can you imagine a Trump/Putin axis? And how will the US military respond to illegal orders this time? What about the Justice Department? Will it become the Trump Police, arresting and jailing his political enemies? Trump has threatened to root out the liberal vermin.

My observation has been that it isn't necessary to anticipate. The market responds to actual changes in liquidity. To the extent that some correctly anticipate the change, the advantage is too small to be worth the risk, in my opinion. The vast bulk of the move, i.e. the trend, happens on the actuality of the liquidity flow, not the anticipation of it. In fact, if you look at the 2020 Covid bull turn, it came 8 days AFTER the Fed started massive pumping operations.

Yes, and when on their way to zero, they are culled from the market averages. Can you imagine where the S&P would be if all of them were left in the index? And not replaced with newer, growing businesses?

US Treasuries maturity profile……a picture is worth a trillion words

I'm going to leave this for an old friend. The topping pattern at the conclusion of a supercycle is going to resemble all the topping patterns before it. We are currently playing out the peak from '08 with extreme precision. Although...it does not stop there. That was only the beginning... Here is a current chart of the ^GSPC with an arrow at the 8.16.22 peak. Then...I'm going to take the peak from 8.16.22 and reverse it. Why? With the next chart...it should become clear. Then...I'm going to repeat my statement from early in 2022, but change the date to another period in time. "Was 2000 all that long ago?" Here is the truth. "Only a supercycle event WILL PRODUCE the secondary decline." This is why Russia MUST be monitored closely...it is the leader of this cycle. Whatever happens to them WILL happen to ALL other markets in the world. I am 100% convinced that their market is a foreshadow of things to come... They are currently two steps ahead of our market's here in the US. If they eventually take out their recent lows...the target is 425(+25/-25). If they don't...a stick save may be produced. Although...at this time...I do not believe this to be the case. I also believe the sticksave in the US will only worsen the situation...eventually. We shall see...soon. Our 2.17 to 2.24 Moex decline phase in the US is currently underway. There is no waiting to see if I'm incorrect...it started when I said it did back in July. Now. Let's get back to discussing the peak in the chart above. Think about Gold in this timeframe I have outlined in the chart above...where(and why) did it separate? For you this should be like a walk in the park...don't strive so hard. One day at a time...Patience. Ok...2,240 to 2,250 it is. TCG oh...and... For those who like gold stars... You see those three peaks in the GLD on the right side of the chart in the post above this one? Notice how the peak is on the left side, then the secondary peak is lower...and the third peak is lower still? Strange? No. It's telling...very telling. Now. Go over to TSLA and look at those three peaks in late 2021 and early 2022? Where did the primary decline bottom? 100? Think! Study! Never Give Up! If a person would only study the "Dust in the Wind" Chart... Our current set of peaks in 2000, 2008, and 2022...are only echoes of other peaks - in time. It's so beautiful I cried as I put that chart together. No one even took a look. The future...is right there in front of your eyes. Yet you refuse to see it... Again. Think! Study! Never Give Up! So. What is the GLD telling you with it's lower successive peaks? It's nesting for a primary 3rd wave crash. Just flip the chart and rotate it 180...it's quite easy to see.

NVDS. It's not too late. 😉 Gotta run... TCG oh...and... I felt bad having left without mentioning gold and silver. You're now BACK on the trendline. The break through will cause acceleration... In the pit of despair...a new bull market in the metals will be born. Since most people that trade gold don't understand it...and they sure as hell don't understand silver either...I'll mention this. When GOLD slips into a free fall(not silver or the shares), then you KNOW the end is near. I warned early...and I warned often. I don't want to leave gold on this note... I'm going to add this. From day one...I said Gold was in a bubble did I not? If I post this chart here with two date labels on the peaks and tell you to think of the S&P...does it give you a direct connection to my internal dialog? THINK IT THROUGH to its conclusion... 2009...will...come my fellow goldbugs. Quickly. The reality of my wall at 1,920 has to play out first. Then. It's Blue Skies. Gold will not go despite the efforts of the current goldbugs, which is a group I personally reject...it will go up despite them. The fight will come at 100. I will take on all comers... NOW...you understand the path. All YOU have to do...is Believe. Simply...believe.

He said, Buy when there's blood in the streets, especially if it's your own.

This was the final triggered sell list from my screen of Wednesday's closing prices.

"with collections that day more than double the norm for the date. The source of this is unknown. Its quantum liquidity I tell you. Good old fashioned Newtonian liquidity just isn't going to cut it anymore.

80-85% less than in North America for all dental procedures. Not an endorsement - just an example. DYODD. https://www.mymeditravel.com/braces-procedures-in-croatia

In Q4 of 2007 the GDP was also 4.9%

Finally starting to crawl out of that hole I dug for myself. Ways to go. I used the time honored strategy of cut losses, buy, lose more, cut losses, buy, lose more, cut losses, buy... and ooh boy, look at that profit. woohoo.

Oh my goodness, I have no idea. I just look at aggregates. This is no surprise and is going exactly as forecast when the Fed started QT. It's direct cause and effect. Yet somehow, people are surprised that deposits are declining. It was a given as soon as QT became policy. As far as parsing what kinds of deposits they are, that's above my pay grade. 😊 Nor do I see the value in that kind of detail. But I have probably used the words crash and accident interchangeably in my reports for the last 18 months. 😊 That the Fed wouldn't change anything until after it happened.