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  1. In short, no. You do not see armies of homeless people in Croatia like you do in US cities. Croatia is a poor country, but they seem to have ways of housing their poorest and most needy, unlike the US. I'm not familiar with their social services beyond their health care system, which I have paid to use on occasion. The facilities are right out of the socialist era, not palatial monuments to excess like in the US. But care seems good. Medical professionals are highly trained. They have modern equipment, and at least in Zagreb, there are plenty of medical specialists to treat particular di
    3 points
  2. AHA! Found the backup! Thank god had backed up my old computer to Google Drive before windoze self immolated.
    3 points
  3. I don't believe in "pricing in." I also don't think about whether I'm a bull or a bear. I just do the math and report what it shows. The longer term projections are what they are because the liquidity balance is what it is. Yes, to your point, there's more and more supply. I factor that into the analysis. In fact, I warned more than a year ago that stock buybacks were a two way street, that eventually the tide would turn and companies would issue more stock than they buy back. As far as people's market sentiment, I learned a long, long time ago, that it means nothing. The consensus
    2 points
  4. I want to add a few more personal thoughts about the Ukraine situation, since it is in the news, and since we've seen some Russian anti-Biden propaganda on it. As you know, I am not a geopolitical anal cyst. I have a personal interest in this subject. I do research, collect and review facts to the extent that they're available, and form my personal opinion. I do so in the context of having paid attention to world affairs, to some extent, since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. I also have a smattering of knowledge of 20th century history pre-dating my personal experience. Some of th
    2 points
  5. The size of the Fed's balance sheet needs to be viewed in relation to supply of and demand for financial assets. That's the issue for us. The price of financial assets. The US Treasury creates so much supply of securities, that the market could NEVER absorb it on its own. The Fed must provide the demand. This started with the first TARP, which ironically the market was able to absorb on its own because there was so much panic that the world massively panicked INTO Treasuries. At that time, Primary Dealers were net short Treasuries. Fast forward a dozen years and everybody is filled
    2 points
  6. IG Number Its a financial metric I invented. It quantifies the inflationary gift transfer of debt value in terms of a stocks value. Companies with high debt (long dated and fixed) have high IG numbers. The value of the debt is inflated away and transferred as value to the shareholders. This is currently 2% of debt per annum. So for a ten year bond 20% of its value is going to be transferred to the shareholders. But if inflation is 5% over the life of the bond 50% of its value gets transferred to shareholders. So the IG number depends on four factors:
    2 points
  7. What's the difference between bitcoin and tesla? What's the difference between cryto in general and stocks in general, other than those that pay dividends out of earnings? What are dividends, you say? Why, back in the 50s, that's why we bought stocks. To get the dividends. Nowadays, instead of paying dividends, companies buy back their stocks and that way they can pay the dividends to the executives who deserve them, rather than the ridiculous, do-nothing, stock holders. Besides, the buybacks make stocks go up. Dividends are so mid-century modern.
    2 points
  8. My superficial, uninvestigated, current working-hypothesis-since-breakfast-and-until-I-abandon-or-forget-it is that sharp declines in the cryptocurrency complex will be the bell rung at the top this cycle. I'm not a crypto-skeptic, per se. But I have done my formal studies of money & sovereignty. The gleeful (smug?) pile-in and emotional commitment to crypto (mainly by 20-something & 30-somethings?) is approaching "eyeball metric ca. 2000" analogous euphoridiocy(TM). The hyper-liquidity afforded a market for something no one can see, few can cogently describe & expla
    2 points
  9. Yes, I'm with you Greg Fokker .. Over the last 20+ yrs I've worked my way through inheritances, superannuation, insurance payouts, etc. Just as well I own the roof over my head and have no debt or dependents. I'm not blaming the way the market performs: rather it's my own weaknesses and an over optimistic view of my abilities. I have worked hard to correct these and I think I see light at the end of the tunnel. Mind you I have said this before. In the meantime I pick up recyclables and cash them in, rent out rooms in my house on a casual basis and have a very modest lifestyle. I am elig
    2 points
  10. I believe my grandfather was also a wealthy man around the same time - also as the result of residential real estate. Eventually thereafter, however, according to my father born in 1923, the two would stand together in breadlines. Then, when things got worse, my father and his younger brother were shipped off to a pair of aunts who lived in the country, where he cleaned the chicken coup, but was properly fed. There's also an apocryphal story of his father piling the family into a car in the night and relocating from Detroit or Cleveland to Pittsburgh, as my grandfather sought to stay one ste
    2 points
  11. Hey there,it's been forever..... Hope everyone has been good.🤑
    2 points
  12. Blackrock is managing the fund. The trades will be executed, as usual, with Primary Dealers. The Fed put out a list of accepted counterparties, and at a quick glance, virtually all of them were Primary Dealers. The direct outright purchases of individual corporates is a new wrinkle. Previously the Fed was only going to buy ETFs. The size of these transactions is less than a rounding error relative to regular OMO. While I think that a Green New Deal is a good idea in theory, and I greatly admire AOC, that bit you wrote about AOC having a proxy from the Treasury is loony tunes
    2 points
  13. This won't be useful to anyone for any purpose whatsoever but: not only do I not know where the market will go nor what to do about my various positions, commitments, bets and wagers, but I also have no clue about the likely or unlikely outcomes of the pandemic, the protests, the police, the social compact, international relations, my future as either a salaried employee, a consultant or a punter, the future of my neighbourhood, or whether things are about to get cataclysmically worse or exponentially better. In fact, I don't know whether to shit or steal third. All I know is that
    2 points
  14. I'm renting a car to drive down to Zadar today to look at an apartment by the sea. There are some amazing bargains. If I have to stay another month, which looks likely, I'd like to be seaside this time of year. Little Croatia reported no new COVID19 cases yesterday and only 109 active cases nationwide. True? I don't know. But for the time being the country has removed virtually all restrictions on movement and business activity. I will continue to wear my hermetically sealed coffee filter mask with antimicrobial electrostatic cover while out and about.
    2 points
  15. So, they've apparently successfully publicly leveraged the private leverage that was previously leveraged against the massive public package of leverage from the last leveraged-leverage rescue. I read that on "3,600 Seconds" last night, that Mr. Powell ("Do you mind if I call you 'an inter-generational bagman and an immoral piece-of-crap' as shorthand for 'Chairman'?") said we'll eventually pay the trillions in new loans that are being used to make whole the trillions in old loans, in a private-public swap that not even the devil would have entertained. LIAR! Lord knows (to borr
    2 points
  16. Busted. 2-3 day cycle projection 4080
    1 point
  17. I love Metastock. I've used it for 39 years! I started with it when I was a salesman/anal cyst with Herzfeld and Stern back in 1982.
    1 point
  18. The wife & I get our first 'rona vaccine shots tomorrow.
    1 point
  19. that drought in the southwest US looks like a scorcher. many farms are shutting down. inflation anyone?
    1 point
  20. Wow. They broke the thing that used to go up only, or something.
    1 point
  21. Sell treasuries and buy up choo-choo trains. Then, lease access to the most substantial rail intersection I could.
    1 point
  22. Treasury just announced another $30 billion in T-bill paydowns, hitting March 4. This brings the 2 week total to $155 billion and it is NOT ENOUGH. The system is collapsing.
    1 point
  23. Got youses attention, did I? Does seem like we are IN THE BEGINNING of the unfolding of the catastrophic scenario that I have been forecasting to begin once the 10 year vaulted past 1%. But for today, the 5 day cycle projection is only 3912, hardly a catastrophe. Even if that breaks there's trend support at 3908 and every 5-10 points or so down into the 3860s. If we're going down today, it should be bouncy. However, below 3867, the bottom starts to drop out. If support holds, look for resistance around 3930-34. 3934 would be the neckline of a reverse head and shoulders patter
    1 point
  24. In keeping with our new focus on modern Technical Analcystics, I present today's pattern. It's important to keep in mind that in Moderna TA, all patterns resolve up. Only in cases where there is no pattern is there a question, but all non patterns eventually form patterns. Therefore, they too will always resolve up, eventually. However, prior to the formation of the pattern, the bearish trader may experience hallucinations that lead to delusional thinking. Such thinking ends with the trader experiencing a squeezing sensation in the groin and nausea. Unfortunately, there is no cure.
    1 point
  25. THE GREAT BOND GULAG I just dont get it. Why do bond holders take the punishment of negative rates?????? Just too crazy for words All the bank depositors should also withdraw their money
    1 point
  26. Congrats on your timing, by the way. Stoolies do it again.
    1 point
  27. I was in the business then. There are often correlations between different eras because the shorter term cycles tend to be pretty consistent. Especially the 6 month cycle. The Fed wasn't printing money hand over fist. And there was no ECB. So I'm not sure that there's a parallel in terms of the trend skew. There was a big bottom in 1982. I was working on Wall Street as a technical anal cyst and institutional sales rep. Ugh. I hated sales. World's worst salesman. Current major cycle top due 2021. Major bottom 2023. Charts Show Market Set Up For Santa Claus Rally and Rockin’
    1 point
  28. Actually, I'm old enough to remember when 10 points was a big move in the Dow.
    1 point
  29. As I get on in years, after 30+ years of trading, sometimes almost fulltime, sometime successfully, most often not, I can say that the markets are the most fascinating of all human creations. Life would be so, so much better, if only I could have traded consistently. If I could have traded like I play pool, or do a few other things, my life would have been easier, simpler, healthier- just better. Then imagine everyone in the whole world with two nickels to rub together is trying to do the same thing, mostly for the same reason. And yet the market somehow manages to defeat most particip
    1 point
  30. In the long run, the Fed’s determined to make all shares big caps....
    1 point
  31. My screens spit out a couple of bullish charts that are interesting here. LLY pulled back to its two hunnert. If it holds, it's a good BTFD. If not. oh well.
    1 point
  32. I want to short GS but don't have the guts to pull the trigger to do that. It's like shorting the antichrist and being afraid of what will happen if they try to get even.
    1 point
  33. It’s insane, right? I tried explaining to friends what Wednesday was like - there just weren’t words to capture it. We have an air filter we run and we also have an Ambient Weather system with air particle add-on that we us to measure air quality indoors. That’s allowed us to keep particle count indoors under 100. Hooray? I mean, all we need is a cranky Hayward Fault, I guess. How you holding up?
    1 point
  34. This is Doc's site and I'm not here to defend or promote Marty Armstrong--Doc is the man and I love this place--but unless I'm missing something, it seems to me that Marty's macro turn date of Sept 3 pretty much lines up with your stated "September High" timeline, no? Doc, my apologies for hijacking the thread. Not trying to be provocative, but probably coming across as such. Crappy week is getting to me I guess. Will put myself in timeout for awhile. 🙂
    1 point
  35. Away for few days and Bulls can't hold it up. Here is where I am looking for a Bounce around 3450 Worst thing is if the bulls can't get a bounce
    1 point
  36. If the point is that all this money printing isn't inflationary, well fine. That's bullshit. There's plenty of inflation. They're not looking in the right places. They should try looking at the value of their houses to start with. No inflation, my ass. And let's just completely ignore the inflation of stock prices, and the previous massive inflation of commercial real estate, which has now crashed, only nobody knows it yet.
    1 point
  37. They are currently defying the Supreme Court DACA case ruling. Trump doesn't give a flying shit what the Supreme Court says. He controls all enforcement of Federal Law. Who is the muscle behind Supreme Court? The US Marshals. US Marshals are under Himmler's control.
    1 point
  38. That‘s a very good summary and I agree with it. When EUR/USD clears congestion area 1.20/1.25 it will go to 1.50/1.60. We are right now in a mental transition phase. Soon folks will realize that they have to have European stocks, you can‘t have a 80% or so exposure to US stocks when the Dollar tumbles like a dove. So folks will reduce USD denominated exposure and built up much more exposure to European and Emerging Market stuff. My scenerio is that there will be one last attempt to save the USD: When they come back from The Hamptons. But that will fail.
    1 point
  39. 1.17 is given which will give way to Higher level. My feeling is Dollar is going down like it did in 2001 and another Commodities Bull market will begin, 2023 Stock market will bottom and everything will go up.
    1 point
  40. I'm glad to hear that fx. I'm black and my uncle served in the army for more than 20 years. He was in Germany for a few years and was there when the Berlin Wall came down, even brought back a few chunks from the wall. I thought that was cool. All my friends that served in the military spent time in Germany and always had great things to say about their time there. I want to visit Germany some day.
    1 point
  41. THE FED RECAPITALISED WALL STREET [alternative title: Not a Care in the World]. No good crisis should go to waste. Surprised there has'nt been more discussion of the CARE Act which sets aside $454 Billion to bail out wall street. The Fed will print $454 billion in electronic dollars. It will then buy $454 Billion of US treasuries. The US Treasury will then give the money back to the FED. The Fed will then put it in a SIV which it can leverage 10 to 1. The SIV will then buy all the toxic crap from Wall Street presumably at 100 cents in the dollar. Th
    1 point
  42. https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/19/vaccine-experts-say-moderna-didnt-produce-data-critical-to-assessing-covid-19-vaccine/
    1 point
  43. There's something about Nice that makes you forget how terrible things are everywhere else. First, it's beautiful, and second, people are focused on enjoying life. Of course, the French always complain about it, but they don't know how good they have it.
    1 point
  44. Today's Sesame Street is brought to you by the letter W. So if we have essentially gone nowhere since April 29 on ES, why has this rangebound market felt so relentlessly up to me? Maybe it's buried under the big W?
    1 point
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