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But it's not quite there yet as of 6:13 AM ET. The ES hourly 24 hour S&P futures chart needs to break below 4155 first. Then that would have a conventional measured move target of 4128. Whoop de doo. If it doesn't break down today, then they'll head higher into the FOMC picnic tomorrow. There's a lot of news on the liquidity front, which I will address in a Liquidity Trader update tomorrow. Nothing urgent has changed as far as I can tell but I'm still parsing reams of Fed data to see if there's a nugget of insight somewhere that might open the lockbox of future secrets for us. For now all we can do is follow the charts. And pray for guidance. And not the kind of guidance that comes from the Fed. Because it is flying blind. And lying about it. If there's one thing that Jerome Powell learned from the master, Bernanke, it's self exculpatory gaslighting. When asked at his last dog and pony show if the Fed staff had warned the FOMC that any banks were in trouble, he cleared his throat and said, "I don't know. I'll have to get back to you on that." I instantly commented that that was a bald faced lie, and in the past week we got proof of that fact in the release of news of the Fed staff report that had been prepared months before that delineated point by point the exact problem the reporter asked about. Not only is Jerome Powell incompetent. He is a crook. Not only is he a crook, he's a lousy liar. Biden should have fired the guy, but I guess he thought it good to have a useful, dishonest schemer, in charge of the Fed. As bad as Powell is, Bernanke was worse. Bernanke was responsible for the financial genocide of millions of hard working, thrifty, honest, risk avoiding elderly Americans who had saved money all their lives just to earn a little interest income in retirement. Bernanke stole that from them and gave it to his Powells in private equity, at Wall Street banks, and big hedge funds. Bernanke famously said in 2010, "Monetary policy has winners and losers." He chose his crooked cronies to be the winners, and simple, hardworking, honest people to be the losers. The man was a willful financial mass murderer. When it comes to financial holocausts, the soft spoken, even toned, studiously academic Bernanke epitomizes the banality of evil. Yellen, despite her failings of insight, to her eternal credit, started a policy to start reversing the long term theft of savings. Unfortunately, she acted too late, and she moved cautiously and incrementally. When Powell came in, within a few months he doubled down on the Bernankist financial genocide. In doing so, Yellen's would be Volckerist legacy was destroyed and is forgotten. By doubling down on QE and ZIRP Powell finished Bernanke's job of destroying the savings and lives of honest , risk averse, retired savers. The Fed first them of their rightful interest income and transferred it to speculators. Then many of those retired savers were forced to spend down their principal into penury. I saw that process first had in my own family. I'm would guess that you, or people you knew went through it as well. We know the truth of the devastating downside of ZIRP. And now we see the devastating consequences of the aftermath. Finally, QE, and helicopter money in the pandemic set off the worst consumer price inflation in 40 years. Before that, we had the worst asset price inflation ever. But nobody seemed to mind that because supposedly everyone benefitted. Until it ended. Now we have a consumption goods inflation that is robbing everybody, except debtors. And a real asset price deflation that is crushing debtors. Many of those debtors can't pay anymore, or if they can pay, the won't because they no longer have any equity to protect. It's gone. So those same big shots with uninsured deposits are running scared. The dominoes in the banking system are starting to fall. We're in a holy mess. Neither the Fed, nor Janet Yellen's Treasury knows what to do about it. Yellen didn't make this mess, but now she and one of the wiseguys who did are in charge of cleaning it up. There is no way. It's a metastatic cancer. There's no surgical or medical cure. It will grow, and metastasize, until it finally kills the body politic in the US, and the rest of the world. The disaffected always turn to the siren call of the fascists. The cycle ends badly. Rebirth and renewal are too far over the horizon for many of us. The younger folks will need strength and courage and luck to get through what lies ahead. We've been here before 100 years ago. The past is the future. So what to do. Buy stocks, of course. Seriously, if the ES doesn't break 4155 today. 😒 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. For moron the markets, see: Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023 Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023 Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023 Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023 The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023 Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023 Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023 How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023 Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023 Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Anyone else experiencing weirdness/duplication/misplacement/new-message alerts today on the board?

March 30th... Passing through....just want to step in here and remind you of what I previously posted on several occasions. "When gold begins to travel inverse to the broad markets...it will be a short-term phenomena(deception)...don't buy into it." It's not all bad in gold though... Since I'm here...I'll toss this out there. Won't be long gentlemen... Best of luck... The CoinGuy oh...and... While I'm here....The SPX needs to hold the swing point at 3800. Personally speaking...I'd like to see us head up to the top of the range once again and give us a clean pattern completion...although, the Twin Peaks formation doesn't require it from here so it's anybodies guess. I'm sitting and patiently waiting for the swing point to break on volume. No need to repeat my case....2,240 to 2,250 will be touched...soon. I think Shania can say it it best...Dance with the one that brought you. Although...Ol' CoinGuy might add...despite "Pattern Phase Distortion" being present in the pattern from the October 13th "suspicious" low. The pattern...is...intact. Only an advance above 4300(on Volume) would break the pattern. Why the distortion? Election narrative manipulation? SPR sales to China? DJI manipulation? Do you really have to ask? SIVB is nothing more than an orchestrated signal to "misstep with intent" to subjugate. UCC Guidelines update eh? You better understand this...CBDC acceleration. I will repeat. The misstep will be intentional. Something I didn't mention when posting the "Dust in the Wind" chart originally is this. See the first decline in 2018? A straight crash...and repeated in 2020? Then, the second decline? A pause to refresh before crashing yet again. I know you're all familiar with the rule of alternation so I don't feel as though I need to fill in the blanks. Just use 1250...and a little imagination...it'll get you there. Almost forgot... Remember this chart of the ^XOI? This was the day I called the high...we've had two attempts to overcome the June 8th peak only to set up a "Right Side Dominant" Twin Peaks formation(see next chart). Pay attention to the "compression" in the chart...it gives you the answer to the question you're not asking yet. To Conclude... When I was reviewing the posts over the last few weeks to see what topics were being discussed...I noticed the forum has become a fan of anniversaries.

Good morning(Especially you Doc, haven't spoken in awhile...🙂)... Haven't held any positions since we covered the morning of the 13th of October. Considering the shenanigans of "a dozen or so" DJI stocks going into the election...haven't seen any reason to comment...until now. As of the close...I'm in. All in. I'll pass back through as we touch 3250. Best, TCG oh...and... Be careful in the metals. The bounce/retest has been solid...I didn't expect the ^HUI to get back over 225/235. I'm actually impressed, but they're rolling over here. Although, nothing is confirmed until the GLD is back below 160. UUP will turn, but a new high? I doubt it. A retest is probably not too much to ask though. I expect just above 30 "just as long as the key at 27 holds". I'm pretty sure it will. 27.17 should be max pain, but it looks like it's bottoming right here. There is solid support at the BTTB(Back to the Breakout) area here at 27.44. Wait and see I suppose... I've looked over my long term forecasts. I've made zero changes. SPX 224(x) to 225(x) will be touched. GLD...I'll comment at 130. I've also looked over my charts. 2008 is the still the dominant pattern. In the short term...as far as I'm concerned, you are on the road to a "Lehman" style event.

9/37/22.....the adlerian calendar Adlerian calendar is calculated by the Market’s movement around a galactic body known as the Federal Reserve. Months are defined by 6 week gestation periods whereby the new calendar month begins and ends with a defining moment where one individual known as the Chairman defines the financial existence for all others. The Adlerian calendar was derived from the Philadelphian derivative where one individual interprets the scripture of the Chairman and the actions of the Chairman’s committee. The process of this one select interpreter is also known as Gastrointestinal Epithelium where he guides and protects his followers from the toxic or otherwise harmful luminal contents of this galactic body.

In Germany, when crossing the street, everyone waits for the green walk light, even when there's no traffic. France: Traffic light? What traffic light? Cars? What cars? Bah! In German cities, cars have the right of way over pedestrians. France: Cars? What cars? Bah! In Germany if you want a glass of water with your meal, 3 euros. France, 1 liter carafe ice cold tap water, corked, free. In Germany, if you want ketchup with your burger or fries, €1.50 for a tablespoon. | France free bowl of homemade ketchup from scratch. German food: Fat and gristle French food: Fat and more fat Grocery stores in Germany: 1 per 3 square kilometers France: 3 per square block Fruit and vegetable stores and stands - France, 1 per block. Germany: What is a fruit and vegetable stand? Vee haf REWE and ALDI. Cafes in France- 10 per square kilometer Germany - 12 per square kilometer Coffee in French cafe: 3 tablespoons of strong espresso Germany: Mug of dishwater, therefore Germans need more cafes than the French Bakeries- tied, if you like pretzel bread. Number of restaurants in French cities: A lot German cities: More, the Germans apparently do not eat at home. More proof of that is the scarcity of grocery stores Dinner Time in German towns: 5:30 PM (17:30). By 8:30 (20:30), everyone is home in bed. If you show up after 8 PM, too bad, restaurants and supermarkets are closed. You vill wait for breakfast, and you vill like it. Understood? France: If you show up for dinner before 8 PM (20:00) you are rude and uncultured, probably American tourist. That's your travel guide for today. Back to the business at hand, yesterday's breakout on the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures looked pretty convincing until it wasn't. Look where it stopped. Right at a key downtrend line. Then it quickly fell back under a couple of resistance lines it had just broken. That was the Sell-Mortimer-Sell moment. Until it wasn't. Support broke, but that too was a false breakdown. Old school conventional TA is a trap anymore. Now, first thing we must do when we see a break is look for the fake, because AI traders are smarter than we are. Apparently, only they know where we go from here, as the ES is at a maximum indecision point at of 5:15 AM NY time. Any trading between 4447 and 4497 will just be noise. Breaking one of those levels might be signal. Or maybe not. The bulls have two factors in their favor. A 5 day cycle up phase should be starting. And hourly oscillators have mostly been making higher lows for a week, particularly versus last week's low. That doesn't mean that an upside breakout will follow, just that a downside breakout is less likely today than an upmove. But watch out if they take out 4447. Next likely stop, 4425. Ciao for now. I'm going to Beethoven's house for lunch. German Hamburger More of my travel photos at https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/ For moron the markets, see: Gold Sets Up August 8, 2023 All We Need is a Few Good Shorts August 7, 2023 Under the Big Top August 7, 2023 More Supply is Just a Lie But Withholding Weakens August 4, 2023 Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking July 31, 2023 Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Outfits like Apartment List and Zumper do market rent surveys all the time. They are reliable. The BLS data is a joke. I have warned for years that it would lag falling market rents on the way down and that CPI would be overstated as a result. YEARS. I have warned about it, and now it's happening. I have warned for years that the Fed was behind the curve on the way up and would be behind on the way down. And it's happening. Just as I predicted. This is NOT rocket science. I was a commercial real estate appraiser and market analcyst for a long time. I know how to measure rents. The private market rent surveys are accurate. I have no doubt about that. These companies collect reams of data. Big Data is self correcting. Anomalies are averaged out. I knew rent inflation in recent years was pushing real inflation higher faster than the Fed recognized. And I am not surprised in the least that rents are falling now, and that the Fed hasn't got a clue. Because the government methodology is flat out fraud. CPI was never intended to measure inflation. Its purpose was to index labor contracts to the "cost of living." So the government invented all kinds of contortions to suppress the number. Worked great on the way up, but the same methods result in overstatement on the way down. Of course rents are adjusting. They went up too far, too fast. People can't pay. Too much multifamily rental stock came on the market. Boom, now rents are falling or at least aren't going up. The whole system of measuring "inflation" is a joke.

Today is the high. Best Regards, The CoinGuy

I'll add this chart for those not familiar with fifth waves in major crashes. This is the typical fifth wave coming off the "Twin Peaks" topping formation. In the ^GSPC...you're just finishing the transition from the twin peaks(in 2) to the first wave of the 3rd wave of the decline. Get a position and hold on for dear life...is my best advice. I took a look back to familiarize myself with the current discussion. I wish I hadn't. If I did have something to say...I would only be echoing the sentiments of PH and would note...well said, PH. If I was to add... I know it is NOT easy, but always be slow to anger...and quick to apologize. From my perspective. You're going to need each other going forward... Now...more than ever...you need the ability to understand and comprehend the world around you from multiple perspectives. This isn't a weakness...but strength. Be forgiving... Our perspective and awareness are much more limited than our ego's would confess... TCG oh...and... WTF...anytime. You know. There is NOTHING in this world I like more than questions. Give me a few minutes to mull that over...I'm going to head in to the archives and take a look at a few charts....I'll be back.

Patiently waiting. Could be nothing... TCG oh...and...uh... I'll park this here for the couple of bears that are still left standing...

In march 2020 that the bottom? ctrl+c, ctrl+v

SVB hired BlackRock’s Financial Markets Advisory Group in October 2020 to analyse the potential impact of various risks on its securities portfolio. It later expanded the mandate to examine the risk systems, processes and people in its treasury department, which managed the investments. The January 2022 risk control report gave the bank a “gentleman’s C”, finding that SVB lagged behind similar banks on 11 of 11 factors considered and was “substantially below” them on 10 out of 11, the people said. The consultants found that SVB was unable to generate real time or even weekly updates about what was happening to its securities portfolio, the people said. SVB listened to the criticism but rebuffed offers from BlackRock to do follow up work, they added. https://www.ft.com/content/fbd9e3d4-2df5-4a65-adbd-01e5de2c5053

2023 is the year private equity hands in the keys on commercial real estate. The same with asset backed securities - look at car loans for example. The deals can't be done. The Fed and regulators want lending back in the hands regulated banks. That's going to take a deflationary ramp down for private equity, pension funds, wall street and insurance companies. ZIRP-forever and the Fed put made mark-to-unicorn and tax payer bailouts a way of life. We're never going back to those days. This will be painful and it'll take years but it's for the best.

22 1/2 years and counting.

So glad to have all of you guys here! I can't share this nerdy stuff with anyone I know Thanks Doc for this site!

Conclusion Chat GPT is the Sergeant Schultz of Tech.

There are always mitigating factors. The last 3 debt ceiling kabuki theaters were under the QE regime. This one is under QT. As you pointed out, the Fed will need an aggressive response when the ceiling is lifted. I would not rule out a temporary program to absorb the new issuance. It will be a form of temporary QE, but the Fed will call it something else. They are monsters.

And now, our daily dose of useless meanderings from an aging, plaque hardened, market addled brain. These thoughts are free, so take them for what they're worth. However, on the off chance that you are crazy enough to think there's value here, check out the really good stuff! Now, I'm not big on analyzing Fedwords, because you know, money talks and bullshit walks. And Chairman Jaysus's pressers are peak bullshit. So I did not listen to Jaysus come to market moment yesterday. However, I did follow the reactions of various conomists, Wall Street captured PR flacks, and assorted Fed critics to get the gist of what he said, and how they spun it. There was no gist. And even if there was, what difference does it make? Rallies cannot be sustained on margin alone, or even massive T-bill paydowns. Yesterday, Jorma, a gentlestoolie who has stuck it out here, putting up with me for nigh on 20 years and 9 months, bless his heart, pointed out something that I had missed. 9 days ago, the Treasury started pumping money back into the market ecosystem via T-bill paydowns. This was unscheduled, and it was large. But why, and to what effect? I was curious about what class of buyer held the most T-bills. I thought it would be money market funds. If MFers are the biggest holders, that would do the markets little good. They'd just buy more T-bills, pushing rates down a few ticks, or they'd put the cash into the Fed's RRP slush fund, where it would mostly just sit on the John, waiting. Which is exactly what's happening. Since November 25, the Fed's overnight RRP money taken in rose by $140 billion. But surprise, surprise, surprise. I was wrong. Again. MFers are not the biggest holders of T-bills. Dealers and Borkers are! They typically buy 50-53% of total issuance. And why do you think they do that? Carry trades and collateralization. Because they can borrow Fed Funds at less than the bills yield, and then use those bills to borrow a ton more cash with which to buy shit. Or better yet, sell short and collect interest on the margin loans they put out. Whatever. Because they are, in the aggregate, horseshit traders. Their fixed income positions are invariably wrong, and they are never hedged sufficiently in the futures when they are wrong in their cash positions. I know this because I've been tracking the weekly data on their fixed income positions for the past 20 years. They have been most wrong at epochal market turning points, such as the top in 2007, or the bond market price top/yield bottom in mid 2020. Massively, dead fucking wrong both times. In fact, that mispositioning is what caused the market and economic crises. The Fed and its economic PR flacks on Wall Street and in its captured media, redirected the public's attention to anything and everything else that was not the root cause. The banks' and dealers' bad, stupid, outrageous, disgusting, behavior. Not only was attention directed away from them, the Fed rewarded them for it. Since the days of Greenspan and Bernanke, those cretins, those crises have triggered massive Fed overreactions in which the Fed, instead of punishing the perpetrators of the fraud, REWARDED them. Which has led us to where we are to day. The Fed's NO WAY OUT moment. But as always the Street now has a convenient scapegoat whipping boy, SamsonandDelilah Bankman Willget Fried, while the perpetrators of the really big crime get patted on the backside, and get paid yet again. But I digress. I have this compulsion to vent about this every so often. Forgive me. The point of the paydowns right now is to reliquify the dealers. I have been roaring for the past year about how much money they, and their big bank parent holding companies, are losing. Most of those losses are hidden in their investment accounts, which are the bulk of their assets, and which are NOT MARKED TO MARKET. No mark to market, no loss, right? Wrong, because as the Fed calls in $95 billion in cash per month, the banks have to liquidate something. So there's a gradual stream of losses that hit the balance sheet month after month. These take a toll over time. Liquidation begets more liquidation as asset prices fall in waves. Credit Sweese Cheese is merely the tip of the shitberg. There will be more. With the Fed sticking to its guns on shrinking the balance sheet--which, forget rates and all the talk is the only aspect of Fed policy that actually matters--the Treasury decided to step up and ease market conditions for the time being. So they're pumping about $50 billion in cash into dealer accounts this month to smooth the market wrinkles. It's quasi QE. There's no guarantee that it will work, but it has certainly made intraday trading much more interesting than watching paint dry. Whether it's tradable or not depends on how much time you are willing to spend watching your screen, and how well honed your electronic gaming reflexes are. What a bullshit market this is. At least with a steady flow of QE, it was predictable. Buy the dip, buy the dip. Now? Who knows? An answer: Fed Steadfast But Treasury Throws a Bullish Curve Despite allowing a couple of my shorts to get stopped out in Tuesday's upside early carnage, I came in heavily short yesterday, held tight, and am heavily short today. Not 100%. About 30% long, 70% short. They put the fearagad into me on Tuesday, so I've resolved to pick the best trending or best looking bottoms to hold long, along with some of the multitudinous crap that wants to break down, short. And now it's time for what you all have been waiting for, our daily Orderly Markets Chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures. First, we note that a 5 day cycle low is due tomorrow, not today. Ideally... And with a 5 day cycle projection of 3860. Hourly cycle and momentum oscillators also suggest a bottom later rather than now. Probably tomorrow. Tomorrow, bet your bottom dollar on tomorrow. It's only a day away. Let the games begin. For moron the markets, see: Fed Steadfast But Treasury Throws a Bullish Curve December 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – 4 More Shorts. 4 More Shorts December 12, 2022 Limited Supplies Delivered At Bear Custard’s Last Stand December 12, 2022 Gold Hones In On New High Projections December 9, 2022 Federal Tax Revenues Are Slowing December 6, 2022 Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

Potatohead raises a good point that we've talked about before. That the Fed pays subsidies in the form of free interest income to holders of the free money that the Fed handed them during the course of QE. That includes Primary Dealers, banks, and money market funds. The Fed is approaching the point where it no longer earns enough income to cover the cost of these free income subsidies to the banks and other large asset holders. As the spread between what the Fed earns in interest income and what it pays out in interest subsidies to banks, dealers, and money market funds, that means a reduction in Fed surplus income. That surplus is normally transferred to taxpayers. Every time the Fed increases the interest on excess reserves or RRP holdings, it increases those subsidies to the banks and money market fund holders. That costs the taxpayers money that they otherwise would have gotten back from the Fed, but it's a pittance in terms of the overall budget. It doesn't even amount to a rounding error, or a fraction of a rounding error. The whole idea that the Fed is losing money completely misses the point. And yet, the subject arises, so let's look at it. In the fiscal year ended September 30, the Fed had transferred $106 billion back to the Treasury, which was an average of slightly less than $9 billion per month. That was still up there with fiscal 2021, which was at $100 billion for the year. But the monthly comparisons have collapsed in the past few months. In November, the Fed sent back only $188 million, that's million with an m, to the US Treasury. That compares with $7.9 billion in November 2021, and $7.4 billion in November. Back in pre pandemic days before the Fed had ballooned its balance sheet again by giving another couple trillion in free assets to the banks, it was still paying the US Treasury about $4.5 billion per month. So its clear that the Fed's surplus has indeed collapsed and could go from surplus to deficate in the months ahead. So, yes. It's true. This comes from the "QE is only good" school of Economism. True, Fed profits and losses are a moot point in terms of policy. True, losses have only a minimal impact on taxpayers. Furthermore, the Fed doesn't mark its gold to market. It's still carried on the books at $35 an ounce. There are hundreds of billions in unrealized gains in that 262 million ounce gold holding. That's a giant profit cushion. The Fed could always use that gold hoard to tighten policy by selling some of it. The whole argument about Fed profits and losses, misses the point. That is that while boosting Fed profits and returning a few shekels to taxpayers, ballooning the balance sheet, handing out trillions in free zero cost assets to the banks and their leveraged speculating customers, and on top of that laying free interest income to the holders, was a subsidy for those banks and speculators at the expense of workers, savers, and retirees. Then with the pandemic, and fiscal helicopter money transferring income to the unwashed masses, inflation came hard as a tax on everyone but borrowers, who again get a subsidy because of it. Of course those late arriving borrowers get wiped out as their assets deflate under the pressure of QT. We'll see how long that lasts. As long as stocks and bonds keep rallying every few months, it can last a long time. Furthermore, the idea that QE had only good effects is delusional, therefore insane. It ignores the income and spending lost to savings beneficiaries, including retirees and insured people. Something that absolutely no one accounts for is how much did it cost the economy in terms of increased insurance premiums due to lost interest income. And how much did it cost the economy due to reduced income and spending to retirees, not to mention the moral cost to the fabric of society. These things are immeasurable, because we tried only abnormal policy. We have no normal policy to compare with because they didn't try it. In fact, they're normalizing now, and the economy is still doing ok. So the Fed's balance sheet losses aren't even a pimple on the elephant's ass in terms of policy. The argument is a diversion, both by the bears, who incorrectly believe that it will cause something bad to happen, and by the bulls who point out that it's no big deal. Both arguments miss the point. QE has been destructive in so many ways that few talk about, morally, politically, and economically. All of these negatives have fed into one another, directly or indirectly feeding the authoritarian populist movements that threaten democracies around the world. QE benefitted only the well connected criminal few who had the capacity and will to play the speculators' game that the Fed enabled, promoted, and rewarded, while leaving the masses ever further behind. People saw those benefits only accruing to the wealthy, who had done nothing to earn them. People saw that the fruits of their labor either being outright stolen or at least diminishing in comparison to the financiers, and corporate robber barons, and speculators. They developed their own big lies in response. Can we envision a way out of this that does not entail massive destruction? That's the question, not whether the taxpayers lose a few billion more in the short run. Meanwhile, we focus on the daily squiggles in this thread. In the past 4 weeks, the stock market, as shown by the ES, 24 hour S&P futures, has become Nowhere Man (credit Jimi). We show the Nowhere Man pattern on the hourly chart every day. It says now that the market has been going nowhere, but that if it drops below 3907, it could go Somewhere. That somewhere being a measured move target of 3737. Otherwise, Nowhere. If they clear 3950, 4000 is probably nowhere from here. For moron the markets, see: Federal Tax Revenues Are Slowing December 6, 2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Picks are Balanced this Week December 5, 2022 Bears Last Custard Stand December 4, 2022 Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts) November 28, 2022 Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear November 28, 2022 Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK November 23, 2022 Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

My mother, who required assisted care, and ultimately, Alzheimers care, died broke after we had to spend all of the life savings my dad and she accumulated expecting it to supplement their social security. And then I spent my own resources to help maintain her for a few years until the end. Might have been different with a normal interest income of CPI+ a point or two. I was able to handle it, but a lot of seniors "graduated" out of assisted living back to the kids as a result, ruining the finances, and disrupting the lives of their families.

I loved the discussion yesterday about the good and bad of living in various places in Europe vs. N. America. I want to talk a little more about my sense of connection to Warsaw. I'm deeply attached to that city. It both haunts and fascinates me. I love Poland and most of its people, but I find its right wing government and its supporters troubling and scary. When I lived there, I saw that there was still freedom of speech on the streets, but I also so the trappings of an incipient police state, waiting in the wings to exert its will over the bulk of the population that would oppose it. On the national independence day, I witnessed an enormous, heavily armed, militarized police force stationed throughout the downtown. Expecting what, I don't know. The Germans bombed Warsaw to the ground when they were retreating from the Russians in 1945. They were pretty pissed off for, first, the Jews of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, and then a few months later the Poles, rising up against the Nazi pigs and killing a bunch of them. So in a fit of retaliation they leveled Warsaw on their way out. After the war, Eisenhower, who had seen his share of destruction, said that he had never witnessed such devastation. Today we see a similar pique of destructive, murderous madness being used against Ukraine by the Russians. But I digress. At the War's end, Warsaw was left essentially a blank canvas, except that in some sections, the rubble was so high that it could not be removed. So where they couldn't clear it, the Russians and their Polish Communist collaborators built right on top of the rubble, mostly in a neighborhood called Muranow. It actually turned into a pretty nice urban neighborhood. The commies were big on building gigantic, drab apartment blocks, block after block, after block, but with big parks in between. In the modern capitalist system these apartment blocks have been turned into co-ops and condos, still ugly on the outside, but many folks have renovated those apartments into hip modern urban spaces. And the ground floors have all been converted to commercial space. So today, Warsaw has the density of a big city, with all the energy that brings. In fact, parts of Warsaw could be mistaken for Queens or Brooklyn or the Lower East Side. Depending on how you feel about cities that's a good thing. About the only crime you need to worry about is public drunkenness. Muggings and murders are almost unheard of. And then there are the parks. From the vantage point of my apartment high above the city, Warsaw looked more like a giant park, with urban strips running like veins and arteries and clusters through the greenery. So even with all its urban density, I could always escape to some quiet greenery a few steps from my apartment. This was true in most areas of the city that I visited. The communists rebuilt the old sections of town, hard by the Vistula River, with a faithful vision of Warsaw's glorious past as the Paris of Eastern Europe. Amazingly, they did a good job. I guess that love of place and the pride of history can sometimes shine through even the grayest, most repressive, bureaucratic regimes. But the rest of the city was planned by the Russians and their partners in crime primarily for the purpose of moving large numbers of tanks and troops across town fast, to send a message to any would-be freedom lovers that the regime would crush you. That grid of enormous, wide boulevards went mostly underused until the 1990s when the capitalists took over. For some odd reason, Poles fell in love with American culture, particularly, car culture. Outside of the old center, Warsaw became a city devoted to the automobile, not pedestrians, as most European cities are. So once you get outside of the districts in the center of town down by the river, you're in a traffic choked wasteland of urban sprawl, lined with giant shopping centers, parking lots and soulless glass office buildings. It's not much different than Atlanta or Houston, only with colder, nastier weather. I lived in Warsaw for 7 months. I have a deep emotional attachment to the place. 1000 years of my ancestry was there in that region and that city. The DNA that built me came from there. At its peak in the 1920s, the Jewish population was 42% of the city. It was the center of the Jewish world. If you are looking for it, you can still see the earmarks of that culture noted around the city in mostly quiet ways. Otherwise you might not notice it. The tragedy of the end of that legacy can still be felt to this day, particularly when you stumble upon the signs of remembrance in places like Plac Grzybowski and the Bridge of Sighs, or the Polin Museum, or the Jewish Historical Institute, or the old synagogue rebuilt and still functioning in a quiet park between Ulica Świętokrzyska and Ulica Grzybowska. I felt the attachment to the place before I went, while I was there, and to this day. And did I mention the food? Polish cuisine goes without saying, but regardless of the genre of cuisine, I found the restaurants in Warsaw, and in Poland in general to be among the best in Europe. Really. Definitely better than France (French cuisine is overrated 😄). Now, so why are we here...??? Oh. Right. The stock market. Just please note. Despite yesterday's seemingly endless carnage, which saved the shredded bear case to live another day at least, the short term uptrend has yet to be broken. So beware before you short this mutha. Yeah, nibble if they approach 4040, get long if they clear it, and don't stay short if they don't get below 3984, or at least are poised to, at the end of the day. I don't know about you, but this market makes me prefer talk about geography, history, and ancestry. Meanwhile, speaking of yields, I don't know much about these things, but does this chart look bottomish to you? For moron the markets, see: Bears Last Custard Stand December 4, 2022 Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts) November 28, 2022 Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear November 28, 2022 Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK November 23, 2022 Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

So I took a walk around town tonight around 10:30 PM and the sense of economic devastation and impending doom in Europe was palpable. OK. Not really.

that hamburger, close encounters of the third kind....

"FTW...from my perspective, I've done you a bit of a disservice answering your questions in the manner that I have, which is without illustrations. Therefore...you'll see a post on the thread soon." From our discussion on the ^VIX... I also reviewed the other questions we discussed... I'll add two simple charts and follow it up with 'One Step Ahead'. Quick comparison from the Tech Wreck in 2000 vs today in the ^DJI... Then...stretching the triangle as we discussed. Trading range bound while within the pattern. What pattern? See next chart... I'll ask. How many days from 11.04 to 6.16? As always...please remember. The MAGNET is only the first 'small' step. Like I've said...This isn't a one and done like 2008. I've also said since day one...The tech stocks are "One Step Ahead" of the broad markets. That's ARKK on the left...and the ^DJI on the right. I'll have more when the TIME is right. I see zero reason to get ahead of the market, er, uh...the Fed. In closing... Recession? I planned for a 14 year Worldwide Depression. As far as I'm concerned...we're right on schedule. Oh...yeah, I forgot. Happy Birthday Will's. You survived your 40th! Now...only 13 years left. The CoinGuy oh...and... STOP CHASING UNICORNS! This give you any ideas? The final push I discussed at 275 is just about complete. As promised...I'll join you in NVDS when you're back below 400. Target price for NVDA has not changed. 50 bucks...and change. I noticed accuracy levels in your stock pickings have fallen off since I left PC&A's corral, mr. neighbor. If you keep playing in my playground...you're going to lose a few fingers. It is all coming into view yet?

<IF> rocket explodes 3 MIN after launch <THEN> buy stonks

The window is now open...until Friday's close. SiP... I don't know who else has been commenting, but I've mentioned NVDA...twice. I believe this was my exact comment on Nvidia from a couple of weeks ago... I'll be standing by my statement. I enjoyed that PH. Thanks. Best, TCG

CDO's in Credit Cards, Autos, Commercial real estate, Corporate Bonds, Tranches issued by other CDOs (), on and on and on.... If credit defaults start to mount, we will soon find out who is holding all this shit. Forget about the interest rate risk on US government bonds (they at least have no chance of default, unless political stupidity), wait until the actual losses from the structured debt start working their way up the tranches. Wonder if Insurance companies might be holding mountains of this after chasing after higher yields in the past decade of fed funds zero interest rate? If the SHTF, even AAA tranches are not going to go unaffected. God help the lower tranches... Thinking of retiring with a nice pension? Guess what your pension fund is holding? If the payments stop coming in on the credit cards, auto loans, ect.... (even if it is backed by collateral, what will the losses be in a forced sell of the collateral in a weak economy when everyone else is also selling?), JUNK first, then investment grades are going to get punished. So far, not much fear in the High Yield Bonds. But if that begins to change and they start to sell off (yields rise) it will be the warning sign of much worse to come...

Based on the info in the media I understand that CRE was heavily financed by local to mid banks which is also putting pressure on them. We all know that stock prices of CRE ETFs are fallin and many call this the source of crisis.

My brother was in from Texas, so my sister flew up from SoCal so that the three of us could spend 3 hours at Wells Fargo completing the paperwork to identify us a successor trustees. To get to this stage required 4 previous hours, and a trip to Oakland to obtain a letter from a doctor too busy or indifferent to put it in the mail. The whole effort had almost collapsed anew when Wells legal told my in-branch contact over the phone that because the doctor’s letter did not specify “financial incapacity” (only, “incapacity”…), that it would not suffice. I dropped my only f-bomb, indicated that Wells now was establishing itself as the only party with authority over my father & family’s money, and that my next step was “to escalate.” I generously did not mention the history of dormant accounts. It took three hours Friday to establish the basis for us to write our signatures four times. As a child, my parents opened a savings account for me when I was in 2nd grade, at a small local bank called American Savings & Loans. My mom would take me in to deposit my little cash, and I would watch my little account balance grow. It was a powerful lesson. That bank was acquired by Crocker, which in turn was acquired by Wells, which was my bank as I went off to college. In grad school, something odd happened: a monthly fee appeared on my statements. I called and it was represented as some bullshit “courtesy monitoring service” to which I had agreed. As a beyond-broke grad student, I told them I had never agreed to any such service, and they reversed it. But I was pissed. Got married within months, and happily consolidated my paltry cash with my wife’s paltry cash in her BofA account: wanted nothing ever again to do with Wells. BofA unsurprisingly turned out to be a predictable piece of shit: we waited very patiently to buy a house and damn near bottom-ticked the cycle Doc top-ticked live on this site from Florida with his freaking open house with cookies (and he did not accept the highest bid, IIRC). Having carried hefty balances, having cycled a ton of salary & bonus earnings for 10 years through our accounts, with sterling credit, and with enough cash to buy our house outright but preferring the flexibility of a conforming loan, BofA refused to originate the loan. It was peak-pain for Cali housing and BofA would not do our business. We found a mortgage broker who would, bought the house with a $417K loan, and immediately closed our BofA accounts in favor a small local bank, which… was of course acquired by a regional bank this past summer, just like my little 2nd grade thrift was. Fuck the Big Banks. Fuck ‘em to hell. I sort of abandoned this site and financial news engagement after 2009 for a long spell because it was so grotesquely handled. Paulson deftly portrayed the worst-case as the most-likely case to leverage through public backstopping of his buddy’s excesses. Several Big Banks should have been sold off to the smaller, more responsibly run banks for dimes or pennies on the dollar. Carved up and sold out. As creative destruction was intended, Capitalism’s redeeming mechanism. And to instill a generation of terror & fear in finance. Instead within a dozen years, “risk-free” rates were effectively set at zero. Of course they were. And speculative idiocy reigned. Of course it did. So, here we are anew. Banks in distress, after years of risk-taking and obscene/unearned bonus-paying, all pursued in the moral-hazard shadow of the GFC. “Too Big to Fail” isn’t a defect: it is the crowning feature that assures private losses are absorbed on the public ledger. Of course reckless uninsured depositors at SVB were backstopped. We know where this all leads. We all know that DC will take care of Wall Street. Plus ça change….

BTFP - Buy the Freaking Pump

The more I think about it, opening the discount window to all banks for qualified paper at par with no haircut, and guaranteeing all deposits is a major policy change that will flood the system with liquidity and enable the banks to endlessly absorb whatever amount of paper the Treasury puts on the market. Hyper inflationary.

*FHLBS TO RAISE $64 BILLION IN SHORT-TERM NOTES OFFERING This new program will be know as the SHort-Term notes offering or SH-T for short

Unsecured desposit fully guaranteed so again mafia wins https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm

BoE said: “SVB UK has a limited presence in the UK and no critical functions supporting the financial system. In the interim, the firm will stop making payments or accepting deposits.” SVB UK confirmed it would be put into insolvency from this Sunday evening (tomorrow). The move could affect as much as 30% of UK tech startups, with potentially 10% in trouble, industry sources estimate. It’s understood the UK Prime Minister’s office, Number 10 Downing Street, is working the weekend to assess the impact on its tech industry. Separately, some 210 (and counting) UK Tech CEOs and founders (employing an estimated 10,000 people), have written to the Chancellor about the issue. And in a breaking development, Sky News reported that The Bank of London (TBOL) (a clearing bank) is allegedly looking at a rescue bid for SVB UK link to article

We should track that italian mobster and start building huge short positions on the firm he shows up next 😎

I have been reporting this for many months. It was a given with QT. It does NOT mean that bond yields will fall. Au contraire! It all but guarantees that they will continue to trend higher until they rev up the presses again. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

With bully running roughshod, I need a 24-hour bar....

Nat Gas down again, at this rate of decrease my utility company will be sending me a check next month as it will be negatively priced.

Your girl Yellen at work Lee. I never cut her any slack. I think of her as the Abby Joseph Cohen of the FOMC. She, the nice dainty grandma, fronting for flesh eating monsters.

Satan wouldn't be caught dead on that panel - he has standards, you know….

It doesn't imply anything. And the Fed's sham rate "hikes" are irrelevant. The bill rates are a meter of market tightness. The Fed just treads water trying to keep up. It's even further behind the market now than it was before. Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth

The ratio is simply a reflection of rising interest rates. Since all portfolio managers use more or less the same Discounted Cash Flow and Value at Risk models. That ratio above would be even more dramatic if you would conpare high beta wirh low beta. The stuff is simple: When interest rates rise (fast), you sell all tech (preferably the highest beta ones) and small caps. When interest rates sink (not when they pause!) you buy high beta tech crap on margin. Why margin? Easy: Cause when interest rates sink your own cost of capital sinks too. All you need to know is DCF and VaR and that all Fartpolio Managers use it. Both models have some flaws and limitations, especially VaR, but that‘s not relevant, as long as Fartpolio Managers use those models. They move the market.

Nothing to see here......

Lee, saw your post yesterday ETFs do not see any cash inflow. The Authorized Participants simply provide the underlying securities to the ETF in exchange for shares they create. Normally the APs are creating shares when there is arbitrage between underlying and ETF share price. I explain ETFs and how they operate in the latest Spaces with Tom at Palisade Radio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wie0CmhuaWY&t=1s

THE SLINGSHOT MANEUVER As you are all aware the Fed is deperately trying to blast away from the debt default event horizon. Just one little problem. There is not enough fuel to do it. So what can it do..... Plan B....the pivot....the only real option left.... It can turn around and accelarate towards the debt..... Picking up inflationary speed by printing..... So reducing the debts "real debt mass" And slingshot around it.... As a spacecraft slingshots around a planet....... Picking up speed to reach escape velocity. This is the only way to escape the debt event horizon now...... Reduce the real debt mass. Reduce the debt event horizon. Reduce the gravitational force. Then escape.

Jimi... When I watched your video on the Canopy hoist, it reminded of a gentlemen from Alliance, NE. Here...the ground pounders are going 'into' the ground with more and more frequency. Nebraska Stories | Greenhouse in the Snow Best, TCG oh...and... fxfox...I agree...and frankly any other method...well, you have to start taking time into consideration. Is it...worth the time? I don't think so. Unless...as you mentioned, you're an insider, but there are risks with that as well. For myself...I think I just prefer to be an outsider - in all respects. To that...I would only add. Those odds(and percentages, which are huge!) get even better if you learn the lesson from Jesse Livermore instead of having to learn it for yourself. It's the large trends...where the most money is made(at the least cost to your health). I've always mentioned I retired in '95 at 27. Before...the ramp. Coming out of the recession in '91 I hit each turn with exacting precision. then I got long the Nasdaq and walked away at 4k(please remember...I don't do bubbles, I've explained why.). To this day....the 12 to 18 month timeframe...I usually like to keep as a minimum. Not to mention...even if I see plenty more on the table...I always leave 10-20% for everyone else. As you know...I like to repeat. So, I'll say it again...always target the big chunk in the middle. There never is any need to rush...or be the first one there. The braggart types who talk that nonsense end up blowing up their accounts. At least that is my experience. Being a johnny come lately...is a bonus from my viewpoint. Technically speaking. I personally like to see the first wave complete and the second wave retracement on light volume...as that starts to get long in the tooth....that's where I 'prefer' to take my shot. I'm going to expand a bit here. In the mood to type I suppose.... Speaking of blowing up accounts...Your day isn't over if/when that happens to you...it's just beginning. I personally think THAT is what opens the door to becoming an excellent trader. The only students that listened...were those who had broken an account or two. The rest...arrogance grew...until they faded away. Some wealthy. a few...very wealthy. Some ended up as dishwashers, cooks...used car salesman. The only difference. One gave up at the break...one picked themselves up by the bootstraps...and trodded on. They didn't give up. I don't care how bleak it looks. One thing about the market. There's another train coming along...whoops, you just missed it. No worries...there'll be another in a few...whoops...you just missed another one. You get the idea... A timely word(or chart) can turn the story around in the blink of an eye. Never give up is the moral of the story. Don't be afraid to speak up if you blow something up either. Most guys...well, from viewing posts for the better part of...hell, I don't know how many years. I've been around the internet since the beginning. At any rate. I don't see many posters who confess losses. What I don't think they realize...if they had any interest in helping someone else...it would be right there at the moment of failure where they could pass along pearls(of wisdom) to everyone around them. By helping others...you help yourself.