We don't know and neither do they.

Bull Market - bear market 
Effect Explained

(12/22/00) Stepan N. Stool, PH &D

Dr. Stool has had a hot hand for quite a few months now, and is beginning to wonder when the market will make him look like an idiot. With 37 years as a stock proctologist, Dr. Stool knows well that this is inevitable. In scientific terms, this is known as the bm (bear market) effect. There are two types of bm effects, the lower case bm effect, and the uppercase BM (Bull Market) effect. The more well known of the two is the upper case BM, or the big BM.

The BM effect takes place as Bull Markets (BM's) end and become bear markets (bm's). In a Bull Market, all analysts, in fact all investors, look like geniuses, because they are right all the time. However, when the Bull Market ends and becomes a bear market, the bullish analysts are revealed for the idiots they are, because they are still bullish. Likewise, their analytical work is exposed for what it is. That's the big BM. It's the big BM because it is far more common, and more widely recognized than its opposite, the little bm.

The little bm is not as widely known because bearish analysts and bear markets are so rare. However, when a bear market (bm) occurs, bearish analysts achieve the prominence they didn't have during the big BM phase. During the bear market, the public acclaims these analysts for warning of the impending doom. The bears then are widely regarded as the geniuses who would have saved us from our folly, had we but listened. 

But alas, in the end, the little bm effect takes effect and the bearish analysts are then revealed for the idiots they are, because they remain bearish throughout the bull market. So, as the bear turns to bull,  the work of the bears is exposed for what it is. That is the little bm.

Dr. Stool, as your Stock Proctologist, urges you to be aware that all market analysis is either Big BM or little bm. It is up to you to decide when to choose one or the other.