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The S-bomb that Sank Your Portfolio

(12/24/00) Stepan N. Stool, PH &D 

At this Holiday Season, Dr. Stool reminds you, Don't drink and drive, and fergodsakes don't swallow that doo-doo that Wall Street feeds you every day.

Now here's all the market stool that nobody else tells you because they all depend on the brokerage firms for their ad revenue.

Below are leading Wall Street strategists' mid-year forecasts for the markets at year end. Remember, these "experts" are paid millions by the altruists who run our retirement funds.

In September Tom Galvin- Donaldson, Lufkin predicted Nasdaq would get to 5000 by years end.

In August, Joe Battipaglia (Gruntal) predicted Nasdaq 5500. He also said "There are no signs of any trouble ahead for the economy, no signs that third-quarter profits will be bad. The election will come and go with great promise. And there is high confidence." On August 28 he recommended JNJ at 94 3/4 (now 101 1/2 not bad), PFE 42 3/4 (now 42 1/2), MRK 72 1/2 (now 92 1/2 Congratulations!), INTC at 73 7/8 (now 33 1/8), IRF at 62 ( now 31), NT at 81 3/8 ( now 31 3/8), LU at 42 3/4, now 14 3/16, AFFX 73 1/2 (now 71 1/4), LIFC 4 15/16, (1 1/16 now).

That guy loves to get on the tube and talk and talk and talk. With a record like that he should shut the hell up.

Let's see, who else. Here's one. Abby Joseph Cohen (Goldman Sachs) said on July 19, "I think the broader market indices will have a good year but not a great year." She predicted the Dow would hit 12,300.

How about Ed Kerschner of Paine Webber - Dow 12,500.

Then there's Jeff Applegate of Lehman - Dow 12,750. On August 31, Applegate predicted that the S&P would move up to 1,600 by year end, and he recommended that investors OVERWEIGHT tech stocks, because they are the least interest rate sensitive sector of the market.

Yes, you read that right.

In Applegate's defense, two of his three stock picks at that time, are up. The third pick was Yahoo at $125. So much for the two winners.

Hmm, how about Al Goldman of AG Edwards. On August 31, with the S&P at 1500, the Dow at 11,100, and the Nasdaq at 4,200, he said that the market would be strong through the first of the year, with a strong pre-election period. He recommended TXN (down 29%), CSCO (-35%), CMB (-19%), and DO (-16%). Now there's a guy who earned his salary!

Want More? In July, Ed Yardeni (Dr. Ed - like the horse, only with a PHD) of Deutsche Bank Alex Brown said that tech weight would increase to 50% of the S&P (It was around 30% at the time.) He recommended semiconductors, networking, and software makers. That was July 12. INTC was 72, CSCO was 68, and MSFT was 82. You know where they are now.

Dr. Ed's a guy, anything he says, do the opposite. What a pathetic load of crap.

Friends, this is only the tip of the stoolberg. Dr. Stool has been back-checking all this stuff, and the horseshit just goes on and on and on. Wall Street has been doing this to us for a long, long time. And the buck stops in your wallet.

In his 37 years as a stock proctologist, Dr. Stool has formed a general rule. The more you see an analyst in the media, the less attention you should pay them.

Well, that's all the good cheer Dr. Stool can muster up for now. 

Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah!

Stepan N. Stool, PH &D


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