don't know and neither do they.
S-bomb that Sank Your Portfolio
N. Stool, PH &D
At this Holiday Season, Dr. Stool reminds you, Don't drink and drive, and
fergodsakes don't swallow that doo-doo that Wall Street feeds you every
Now here's all the market stool that nobody else tells you because they
all depend on the brokerage firms for their ad revenue.
Below are leading Wall Street strategists' mid-year forecasts for the
markets at year end. Remember, these "experts" are paid millions
by the altruists who run our retirement funds.
In September Tom Galvin- Donaldson, Lufkin predicted Nasdaq would get to
5000 by years end.
In August, Joe Battipaglia (Gruntal) predicted Nasdaq 5500. He also said
"There are no signs of any trouble ahead for the economy, no signs
that third-quarter profits will be bad. The election will come and go with
great promise. And there is high confidence." On August 28 he
recommended JNJ at 94 3/4 (now 101 1/2 not bad), PFE 42 3/4 (now 42 1/2),
MRK 72 1/2 (now 92 1/2 Congratulations!), INTC at 73 7/8 (now 33 1/8), IRF
at 62 ( now 31), NT at 81 3/8 ( now 31 3/8), LU at 42 3/4, now 14 3/16,
AFFX 73 1/2 (now 71 1/4), LIFC 4 15/16, (1 1/16 now).
That guy loves to get on the tube and talk and talk and talk. With a
record like that he should shut the hell up.
Let's see, who else. Here's one. Abby Joseph Cohen (Goldman Sachs) said on
July 19, "I think the broader market indices will have a good year
but not a great year." She predicted the Dow would hit 12,300.
How about Ed Kerschner of Paine Webber - Dow 12,500.
Then there's Jeff Applegate of Lehman - Dow 12,750. On August 31,
Applegate predicted that the S&P would move up to 1,600 by year end,
and he recommended that investors OVERWEIGHT tech stocks, because they are
the least interest rate sensitive sector of the market.
Yes, you read that right.
In Applegate's defense, two of his three stock picks at that time, are up.
The third pick was Yahoo at $125. So much for the two winners.
Hmm, how about Al Goldman of AG Edwards. On August 31, with the S&P at
1500, the Dow at 11,100, and the Nasdaq at 4,200, he said that the market
would be strong through the first of the year, with a strong pre-election
period. He recommended TXN (down 29%), CSCO (-35%), CMB (-19%), and DO
(-16%). Now there's a guy who earned his salary!
Want More? In July, Ed Yardeni (Dr. Ed - like the horse, only with a PHD)
of Deutsche Bank Alex Brown said that tech weight would increase to
50% of the S&P (It was around 30% at the time.) He recommended
semiconductors, networking, and software makers. That was July 12. INTC
was 72, CSCO was 68, and MSFT was 82. You know where they are now.
Dr. Ed's a guy, anything he says, do the opposite. What a pathetic load of
Friends, this is only the tip of the stoolberg. Dr. Stool has been
back-checking all this stuff, and the horseshit just goes on and on and
on. Wall Street has been doing this to us for a long, long time. And the
buck stops in your wallet.
In his 37 years as a stock proctologist, Dr. Stool has formed a general
rule. The more you see an analyst in the media, the less attention you
should pay them.
Well, that's all the good cheer Dr. Stool can muster up for now.
Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah!
N. Stool, PH &D