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Moral Hazard & Relying on Faith Based Reality


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#61 swordfish

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 05:54 PM

It's just so infuriating that tout rags like the WSJ, with that little ass licking whore Murray hanging on every ounce of flatulence from Rupert Murdoch's fat fascist ass, keep talking to the same criminals responsible for this outrage as if they are credible authorities on what's going on. Asking the opinions of these financial bosses, and their ratings agency consiglieres on whether we're in a bubble, is like asking the Mexican drug cartels how the drug trade is becoming more socially responsible. Or it like asking a mafia don whether there's less bribery and extortion in the concrete business today due to the downturn in the economy.

Please stop posting references to anything published by one of Rupert Murdoch's dangling organs. That includes the Whore Street Journal, Marketupwatch, Faux News, Dow Jones Tout Wires. These people make me sick, and we shouldn't be promoting them in any way shape or form.

Bloomberg is a little more credible.



Dear Doc,
I put the arts from WSJ here just to show to everyone what the mass media prints. I think that it is really good to know what they print so you know what the mass media customer know (you know what normal guy from financial industry read). In other words, you know what kind of shit (BS) they put in their head in the current moment. Based on the arts presented by me above you know that they try to convince the masses to believe that this time is different and we are NOT in the bubble. This mean for me that we ARE in the bubble.
I will post from time to time such an arts but with the CLEAR "warning sign" before art that this is BS.
Based on your reaction I think that you think that I believe in that BS. No, I dont, This is just a BS indicator in mass media.

BR,
swordfish
Jail, not bail!

#62 swordfish

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 05:55 PM

there is a good read from John Mouldin about taxes:

http://www.frontline...sp?id=mwo111309

He looks for info about revenues from sales tax to check the health of economy (the same, Doc is doing with his tax graphs)

If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?

I keep reading about surveys that show that retail sales are up. But as noted above, no one pays extra sales taxes, or decides they need to pay more income taxes. The surest way to measure retail sales is sales taxes. Want to know how incomes are doing? Look at income tax receipts. Let's look at sales taxes first.

First off, I can find no single source of recent sales tax information. It is all one-off, but it is consistent. Sales taxes in my home state of Texas are down 12.8% year-over-year, and we're in the fifth straight month of decreases of 11% or more. Projections are for sales taxes to continue to decline into 2010.

There is a very revealing study by the Pew Center on state taxes, called "Beyond California" (http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/). Everyone knows how bad California is. The Pew Center looks at how the rest of the states are doing, and focuses on 10 states that also have severe problems. Sales tax receipts are down 14% in Arizona, and state income taxes are down 32%.

On average, revenues are down almost 12%. Oregon has seen their revenues collapse a stunning 19%. New York is down 17%, with a deficit of 32%. Illinois has a projected deficit of 47% of its budget, second only to California with 49%. You can see how your state fares at http://downloads.pew...ia_Appendix.pdf.

The Liscio Report notes that all states had negative year-over-year sales tax collections in October, and the weighted average decrease was 10.2%, down from a negative 7.2% in September. (www.theliscioreport.com)

Sales at Wal-Mart stores slipped by 0.4% in the third quarter. Actual government figures show that retail sales were down 1.5% in September from the previous month and 5.8% year-over-year. So how do we keep seeing headlines about retail sales being up, as unemployment keeps rising?

Remember that such reports are usually based on surveys, and generally cover mid-sized and up retailers, leaving out smaller businesses. Further, if you are a retail chain that has closed 10% of its stores, the remaining stores should in theory benefit from getting your loyal customers into them.


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#63 DrStool

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 06:39 PM

Dear Doc,
I put the arts from WSJ here just to show to everyone what the mass media prints. I think that it is really good to know what they print so you know what the mass media customer know (you know what normal guy from financial industry read). In other words, you know what kind of shit (BS) they put in their head in the current moment. Based on the arts presented by me above you know that they try to convince the masses to believe that this time is different and we are NOT in the bubble. This mean for me that we ARE in the bubble.
I will post from time to time such an arts but with the CLEAR "warning sign" before art that this is BS.
Based on your reaction I think that you think that I believe in that BS. No, I dont, This is just a BS indicator in mass media.

BR,
swordfish


Yeah. I know. It's just so aggravating to see that stuff in the media. I'm thinking that more and more people recognize it for what it is.

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#64 Trader Joe

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 06:48 PM

Yeah. I know. It's just so aggravating to see that stuff in the media. I'm thinking that more and more people recognize it for what it is.


I read it for the photographs....

#65 Charmin

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 07:01 PM

The ones with good communication skills are doing that. The others are yelling & blaming each other for a situation over which neither of them currently has any control, as the time to sell the big house for a big price and downsize to a more affordable one is over, at least for the time being. The gubmint is trying to stimulate that time into happening again. Time will tell if it will partly succeed.


I guess all we really need to know when it comes to real estate is - "Two-thirds of inventory is priced too high for the current market." That came from an article on bidding wars and Barry Ritholtz at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
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#66 Drano

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 07:26 PM

Yahoo has an article about 10 companies whose earnings (losses) suck.

I suppose this is a list of the 10 companies the Pigmen will jack up way higher next week. :P

http://finance.yahoo...144448.html?x=0
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#67 MrHanky

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 07:28 PM

I guess all we really need to know when it comes to real estate is - "Two-thirds of inventory is priced too high for the current market." That came from an article on bidding wars and Barry Ritholtz at http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

It is the opposite in Las Vegas.....Two thirds are below market and getting 20 and 30 offers as it gets bid up.



Went to my house that is now a rental on the other side of town.Have not been there in 3 months.....Last time I was ther I counted 27 forclosure signs in my side of the development,now there are only 4.


FWIW

Nothing


#68 Charmin

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 08:53 PM

It is the opposite in Las Vegas.....Two thirds are below market and getting 20 and 30 offers as it gets bid up.



Went to my house that is now a rental on the other side of town.Have not been there in 3 months.....Last time I was ther I counted 27 forclosure signs in my side of the development,now there are only 4.


FWIW


Is that why they always say, "Location, location,location."
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#69 DrStool

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 09:17 PM

It is the opposite in Las Vegas.....Two thirds are below market and getting 20 and 30 offers as it gets bid up.



Went to my house that is now a rental on the other side of town.Have not been there in 3 months.....Last time I was ther I counted 27 forclosure signs in my side of the development,now there are only 4.


FWIW


Data still looks pretty weak, Hank.



Las Vegas 25th Percentile, Median and 75th Percentile Home Price
http://www.housingtr...as-vegas-nevada

Posted Image




Las Vegas Home Inventory
Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

There has been an increase in volume.
Posted Image

But foreclosures are still uptrending.

% of homes foreclosed
Posted Image

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#70 MrHanky

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 09:27 PM

I still think most major cities still have a 30-50% drop coming.Even then most places will still be more to own than rent....

Data ain't great,but cheaper to buy then rent in most cases in Vegas.That should help over time.Also with the lowered property taxes,it is a real bargain for people looking to live in a major city.The average property taxes are now less than 2k per year.


Either way,I am looking to live in a more rural area soon,so i would not be a buyer here at any price.

Nothing


#71 DrStool

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 10:11 PM

Well, the Mauldin piece got me to thinkin. So what did I do?

Why, I made a chart, natch!

Posted Image

I'll have some comments tomorrow morning. First, I gotta do like the constipated mathematician.

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#72 brianbenson

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 10:26 PM

I'll have some comments tomorrow morning. First, I gotta do like the constipated mathematician.



Remind me not to borrow any pencils from you.

#73 Jimbo

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 10:35 PM

REGIE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE

Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog web site. Talk about someone credible.


His numbers are very impressive and enlightening.

Nothing as good in the main stream media.
timoleon

#74 itiswhatitis

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 10:38 PM

I still think most major cities still have a 30-50% drop coming.Even then most places will still be more to own than rent....

Data ain't great,but cheaper to buy then rent in most cases in Vegas.That should help over time.Also with the lowered property taxes,it is a real bargain for people looking to live in a major city.The average property taxes are now less than 2k per year.


Either way,I am looking to live in a more rural area soon,so i would not be a buyer here at any price.


Any businesses in LV hiring now? Casino's still laying off, furloughing, calling back? Casino's being built, planned?

#75 cwd

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 11:13 PM

Extreme detail research on Alberta Tar Sands.
http://research-ca.b...74295019288.PDF


Thanks. :D





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