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#46 Captain's Log

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 12:44 PM

To comply with the flatuance request.

Hey for some reason, I can browse CS at work now. :D Cool. This will make a big dent into Fed's productivity numbers.

#47 ChicagoBear

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 01:12 PM

I can't believe what's happening in my neighborhood. I just received my property tax bill and they raised the assessed value of my house by 41%! This is absolute BS. I did nothing material over the past year to add value to the house. This is happening to everyone, and people are totally pissed off. :angry:

Was at the local mom & pop hardware store this week and the owner was complaining about his business taxes. They've been here for over 80 years, but he said he might have to close down. Others talking with him were complaining about their property taxes, and sharing how they were all taking pay cuts at work just to keep their jobs.

Over 50% of our property taxes go to the school system. These parasites are part of the problem. While I appreciate the excellent schools we have, most don't realize that in a deflation, everyone needs to tighten the belt. Those in the schools and the government that are responsible for budgeting need to get a clue and start cutting taxes, not raising them. Raising taxes to cover revenue shortfalls is only going to compound the problem. This kind of tax hike will force out all those who were already at the margin. That will put more houses on the market (depressing prices further), and lead to even less tax revenues. So what then? Raise taxes again? That will again will force even more people out, leading to less revenues, leading to more taxes, etc. until their is no one left to tax (or go to school). These bastards are sowing the seeds of our own community's demise. People are going to start (have started) voting with their feet, and moving somewhere more financially reasonable.

Along the same lines, we've wanted to put an addition on the house, but I wanted to first - save the cash to pay for it (no financing), and second - wait until the bottom of the depression for better prices (paying more for an addition than we paid for the house in '98 is just stupid). So, with things starting to look good to do this maybe in 2010 or 2011, we started working with an architect to get the plans drawn-up. Now, with this new property tax increase, there's no friggin way I'm going to do the addition because they will only jack-up my taxes another 40+%. Frick them! This is really sad, because I could be spending, helping employment, helping material manufacturers, and basically helping the economy. But if they're going to shove it up my a$$, forget it. It obviously makes more cents to hoard cash and ride out the storm. Who's to say they don't jack-up the taxes another 40% next year anyway, even without an addition?

I can tell, the way things are going, this is going to get much, much worse. It really is a time to grab your nads and hold on. We're in a storm and lots of people are about to get caught by the flash floods. It's so sad. :(
If we don't change our direction, we're likely to end up where we are headed.
It wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark.
"and the vicious cycle will feed on itself in an orgy of cannibalistic self destruction until even the skeletal remains of the system are ground into powder." - Doc, 3/2/09

#48 K Wave Rider

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 01:50 PM

Markets closed at another pivot spot on Friday. Last week da bears got blown out. We should have an idea in pretty short order on Monday if more of the same awaits...or if da bears gonna finally wake up.

Even with the strong breadth on Friday, the McClellan stuff is still right at the zero line, and could still go either way here from some seriously divergent levels...as Price sits very near the high, while the summation is at, or below, the July low on the NYSE and NAZ.

#49 Dharmaeye

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 01:51 PM

I can't believe what's happening in my neighborhood. I just received my property tax bill and they raised the assessed value of my house by 41%! This is absolute BS. I did nothing material over the past year to add value to the house. This is happening to everyone, and people are totally pissed off. :angry:

Was at the local mom & pop hardware store this week and the owner was complaining about his business taxes. They've been here for over 80 years, but he said he might have to close down. Others talking with him were complaining about their property taxes, and sharing how they were all taking pay cuts at work just to keep their jobs.

Over 50% of our property taxes go to the school system. These parasites are part of the problem. While I appreciate the excellent schools we have, most don't realize that in a deflation, everyone needs to tighten the belt. Those in the schools and the government that are responsible for budgeting need to get a clue and start cutting taxes, not raising them. Raising taxes to cover revenue shortfalls is only going to compound the problem. This kind of tax hike will force out all those who were already at the margin. That will put more houses on the market (depressing prices further), and lead to even less tax revenues. So what then? Raise taxes again? That will again will force even more people out, leading to less revenues, leading to more taxes, etc. until their is no one left to tax (or go to school). These bastards are sowing the seeds of our own community's demise. People are going to start (have started) voting with their feet, and moving somewhere more financially reasonable.

Along the same lines, we've wanted to put an addition on the house, but I wanted to first - save the cash to pay for it (no financing), and second - wait until the bottom of the depression for better prices (paying more for an addition than we paid for the house in '98 is just stupid). So, with things starting to look good to do this maybe in 2010 or 2011, we started working with an architect to get the plans drawn-up. Now, with this new property tax increase, there's no friggin way I'm going to do the addition because they will only jack-up my taxes another 40+%. Frick them! This is really sad, because I could be spending, helping employment, helping material manufacturers, and basically helping the economy. But if they're going to shove it up my a$$, forget it. It obviously makes more cents to hoard cash and ride out the storm. Who's to say they don't jack-up the taxes another 40% next year anyway, even without an addition?

I can tell, the way things are going, this is going to get much, much worse. It really is a time to grab your nads and hold on. We're in a storm and lots of people are about to get caught by the flash floods. It's so sad. :(


Remember reading a book in the 70's called Ten Lost Years. Full of short Canadian stories about the depression. One story from Edmonton about a widow left with a fortune in real estate ended up completely wiped out due to property taxes and of course unable to sell anything to pay them. Think its going to be different?

#50 K Wave Rider

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 01:57 PM

The first order of business, will be how price reacts off the triple touch of the 2500 tick. Right now, it appears as if support has held, and the upward curl is trying to form, but this could easily go either way here.

If price starts trading below 1090, rather than lifting off over 1093, it would be first sign bears may be about to start something.

#51 K Wave Rider

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 02:24 PM

If we do break down Monday, we have air gaps in both 5k and 10k charts that points at 1066-70 area. The 10K 900 is still flat, and that is a sign that we may be ripe for a breakout/fakeout type of move, where we come back down quickly starting Monday, and then 1070 area fails to hold.

As is typical as rising wedges start to mature and lose momo, the 20K tick has how moved up to where it is now only a very short distance away from the 10k, currently at 1058 and rising.

If we do break down on Monday, and get thru 1070, there will likely be some ping pong action between 1060-70 area, and if 1060 finally gives way, bears might finally get some downside action going.

If we instead shoot out the top, we may have up to a few more weeks of stalling. churning type action at the the highs. The other possibility would be a blowoff move to SPX 1200. In any event, shorting while still above 1090 may prove frustrating.





#52 capitall

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 02:27 PM

KW, thanks so much for telling me about Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog web site. Talk about someone credible. This guy is brilliant. If folks in the U.S. were more focused and smart about economics and the related political facts (like the lies and bs that get spewed out, and the government coverups, due to the political power of banks), they'd certainly be reading his writing more often than the WSJ. He does a lot of research into individual banks, REITs etc. Here is just one of his fascinating free articles, from a week ago.

You've Been Bamboozled, Hoodwinked and Lied To! Here's the Proof. What Are You Going to Do About It?

http://boombustblog....o-About-It.html

In his article on Thurs., he suggested a great warning sign that he said the agencies that gave high ratings to subprime securities should be required to display on all their public announcements for the next 50 years-- similar to the warning on the cigarette package-- saying that the subprime crisis has revealed that the ratings made by this agency are sometimes worthless, and so investors should not rely on them in making investment decisions.

#53 K Wave Rider

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 02:28 PM

And if we do eventually break 1060, it could be quick ride to 1000 area....

#54 K Wave Rider

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 02:41 PM

KW, thanks so much for telling me about Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog web site. Talk about someone credible. This guy is brilliant. If folks in the U.S. were more focused and smart about economics and the related political facts (like the lies and bs that get spewed out, and the government coverups, due to the political power of banks), they'd certainly be reading his writing more often than the WSJ. He does a lot of research into individual banks, REITs etc. Here is just one of his fascinating free articles, from a week ago.

You've Been Bamboozled, Hoodwinked and Lied To! Here's the Proof. What Are You Going to Do About It?

http://boombustblog....o-About-It.html


Yeh, the guy has spent an incredible amount of time and effort digging through the cesspool.

#55 Charmin

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 03:15 PM

Yeh, the guy has spent an incredible amount of time and effort digging through the cesspool.


I was going through my bookmarks and found http://mhanson.com/blog dealing with the real estate cesspool.


Mid-to-High End Mortgage & Housing Market – A Slower Moving Train Wreck
"Most think the MTH homeowner is somehow isolated from the broader housing market collapse – hogwash. They are more impacted because unlike the low-end hand-to-mouthers, these borrowers may have assets to attach or protect and perhaps something called a budget. Right now in cities across America there are married, working couples in MTH houses sitting around the dinner table saying “honey, we make $150k a year. Why can’t we save any money? Where does it all go each month?”"
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#56 capitall

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 03:31 PM

I was going through my bookmarks and found http://mhanson.com/blog dealing with the real estate cesspool.


Mid-to-High End Mortgage & Housing Market – A Slower Moving Train Wreck
"Most think the MTH homeowner is somehow isolated from the broader housing market collapse – hogwash. They are more impacted because unlike the low-end hand-to-mouthers, these borrowers may have assets to attach or protect and perhaps something called a budget. Right now in cities across America there are married, working couples in MTH houses sitting around the dinner table saying “honey, we make $150k a year. Why can’t we save any money? Where does it all go each month?”"



The ones with good communication skills are doing that. The others are yelling & blaming each other for a situation over which neither of them currently has any control, as the time to sell the big house for a big price and downsize to a more affordable one is over, at least for the time being. The gubmint is trying to stimulate that time into happening again. Time will tell if it will partly succeed.

#57 DrStool

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 03:32 PM

Latest Story

Fed Suffers Shrinkage- Professional Edition
November 14, 2009 By Lee Adler The Fed€™s balance sheet suffered massive shrinkage last week as the Fed added only a small amount of new securities while alphabet soup programs continued their collapse. The flight from money market funds into the banks continued, but the banks appear to be on strike as far as buying Treasuries is concerned. Most of the support for the Treasury market would seem to be coming from investors who are dumping their money market funds and buying T-bills and short term notes directly. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don€™t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It€™s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#58 Trader Joe

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 03:48 PM

I can't believe what's happening in my neighborhood. I just received my property tax bill and they raised the assessed value of my house by 41%!


Mish is from IL and he's been ranting about similar budget related issues lately.

Keep your eye on NJ. Union butt licker Corzine (D) just got the boot.....and while I didn't vote for Christie ( R), I almost did.

Christie will assume the post in Jan, and he has already begun to send the message that the NJEA Teachers Union as well as State unions are gonna get the smack-down.

One of his initial threats is to immediately declare a "budget emergency" and start across the board layoffs union+admin.

I would be shocked if NJ is the state that starts this revolt against taxes and the Unions and bloated administrative positions, but if he does succeed to any degree -- well, we'll just have to wait and see.

#59 dharma

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 04:25 PM

this piece by martin armstrong gold 5k
http://www.scribd.co...D-5000-11-11-09
dharma

#60 Drano

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 05:44 PM

And if we do eventually break 1060, it could be quick ride to 1000 area....

mmmm.... K Wave, you may not have noticed it on IDS, but Doc doesn't want anyone posting porn here any more.











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