Jump to content


Photo

Get your 10k party hats!


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
80 replies to this topic

#61 swordfish

swordfish

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,467 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 05:33 AM

It didn't help the bears back in July when it was pushed into formation. I wouldn't put a horizontal line on it, but see that the formation completes in proper time. In this case, it would need to complete by the end of the month or roughly 20 days for the right shoulder.



Charmin,
sorry for the stupid question, but as a "need to complete by the end of the month or roughly 20 days for the right shoulder" you mean "top" of the right shoulder, and then fall to let say 1000 on SP500 or you mean fall to 1000 within 20 days? I understand, you mean the latter

thanks
Jail, not bail!

#62 Jimbo

Jimbo

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,156 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 05:55 AM

YEP - WARRENS GONE OVER TO THE DARK SIDE


Who is one of the biggest indivdual beneficiaries of TARP bail out funds in America.

It wouldnt be good old warren buffet would it?????

Companies he owns significant stakes in recieved $95 billion in TARP money and the government guaranteess $133 billion of their debt.

Better than free float any time.

Front running the bail outs is a good ... no its a great strategy.

The stocks of the financials have become cheap call options.

And the price of the options cannot fall so long as the government keeps on bailing them out.
timoleon

#63 swordfish

swordfish

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,467 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 07:10 AM

Doc,
why you count only the rest of the MBS paper which can prop up the market? As the "rest" I mean ~300bln USD in MBS (to finish the program in march 31 2010). Why you not count the forward outstanding commitment for MBS, which in total gives ~500bln USD to prop up the market? For me, this "forward outstanding commitment" was not spend which means market players have ~23bln per week to prop up the market, not 14bln. Per month, it gives 92bln USD, that a pretty good money.
Of course, the question is, where does this "MBS money " goes to i.e. to which market player (e.g. PD, FCB, Fannie Mea etc), but that is a different story and I dont want to spoil anything (because this is in the fed report). Could you, in your FED report, once again underline where this next 300 (or 500) bln will go, i.e. who will benefit from this program?

TIA
Jail, not bail!

#64 Rationalize

Rationalize

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,862 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 08:31 AM

Thanks to KW and IAM for sharing. :D

Ditto. Nice going guys.
PARTY! NORTH KOREA! SATURDAY NIGHT! BYOF (bring your own food)

#65 swordfish

swordfish

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,467 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 08:46 AM

K wave,
big thanks for charts (especially tick charts).

May you also present any bulish scenario, of course if possible.
Jail, not bail!

#66 swordfish

swordfish

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,467 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 08:47 AM

Doc,
I think you made a tiny error in FED report. It should be 16th not 19th on the first page. Or maybe I miss something....?
Jail, not bail!

#67 Dharmaeye

Dharmaeye

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,943 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 10:13 AM

K wave,
big thanks for charts (especially tick charts).

May you also present any bulish scenario, of course if possible.


Second that, with my big thanks over the years. Earliest memory is you (KWAVE) and Money Penny getting together?

#68 K Wave Rider

K Wave Rider

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 29,599 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 10:16 AM

K wave,
big thanks for charts (especially tick charts).

May you also present any bulish scenario, of course if possible.


Bullish is anything that sticks over the over the multiple time frame resistance we are currently at.

Where it stops after that I would have to evaluate in the future, as things set up.

I do not think the bullish ramp would be as bad as July for the Bears, but a blowoff run to 1200-50 would not be impossible.

#69 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,788 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 11:00 AM

Doc,
why you count only the rest of the MBS paper which can prop up the market? As the "rest" I mean ~300bln USD in MBS (to finish the program in march 31 2010). Why you not count the forward outstanding commitment for MBS, which in total gives ~500bln USD to prop up the market? For me, this "forward outstanding commitment" was not spend which means market players have ~23bln per week to prop up the market, not 14bln. Per month, it gives 92bln USD, that a pretty good money.
Of course, the question is, where does this "MBS money " goes to i.e. to which market player (e.g. PD, FCB, Fannie Mea etc), but that is a different story and I dont want to spoil anything (because this is in the fed report). Could you, in your FED report, once again underline where this next 300 (or 500) bln will go, i.e. who will benefit from this program?

TIA


My views are fully explained in the report. Please read it again. I have tried to make clear since the MBS operations began that the MBS purchases are not like the direct Treasury and GSE purchases in Open Market Operations in terms of their effect on the market.

The amounts of MBS committed and remaining to be settled are clearly delineated in the reports. View them as you wish. There will be large monthly settlements in the 5 remaining months of the program. They typically come just before or during weeks where there are large Treasury settlements. Subsidizing the Treasury market is Job One

This is all in the report. I realize there's a lot to read there. That's why I summarize everything in the first two pages and provide a compendium of updated sections. This is so that both new readers and regular long term subscribers will be able to find what they need as quickly and easily as possible.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#70 swordfish

swordfish

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,467 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 11:54 AM

Wojciech Białek, polish anal cyst, on his blog track closely ISM, PMI and other reports. He also compares ISM and other parameters with stock indices.

Now, based on history, he claims that unemployment peaked in October or will peak next one month. His theory is based on ISM component ("Employment"). Here is a chart:
http://wojciechbiale...gEmployment.png
Posted Image

(stopa bezrobocia means "official unemployment"). I think that ISM employment component is "moved" on the chart by six month.

He get the same results, based on "ISM Non-Manufacturing" poll
http://wojciechbiale...nufacturing.png
Posted Image

He also think that after this correction on stock market we will go higher till mid Jun 2010 (worst case) to late March 2010 (best case)
Jail, not bail!

#71 Charmin

Charmin

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,177 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 12:47 PM

They better hope they get a job with a behemoth corporation who will pay the freight.


The contribution each month to my Benefit fund for my family's care is $1161. Figure that out per hour.
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#72 Charmin

Charmin

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,177 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 12:50 PM

Charmin,
sorry for the stupid question, but as a "need to complete by the end of the month or roughly 20 days for the right shoulder" you mean "top" of the right shoulder, and then fall to let say 1000 on SP500 or you mean fall to 1000 within 20 days? I understand, you mean the latter

thanks


September 20 days for the left shoulder.
October for the head and 20 days
November for the right shoulder or 20 days.

If bears force it to complete before the end of the month then it would be something different than a "shoulder." At least, that's what I figure.
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#73 Charmin

Charmin

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,177 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 01:01 PM

There are signs that this thing may be outta gas up here...


Maybe it needs a one/two punch.

"The next weekly pattern is that next week is the week before this month’s options expirations and the week before tends to be negative as the large program-trading firms drive the market down so they can buy the call options and futures that will expire the next week for pennies on the dollar, (and then drive the market back up at the expirations the next week to reap big gains on those highly leveraged derivatives)."
Sy Harding http://syhardingblog.com/new/
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#74 capitall

capitall

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,315 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 02:06 PM

YEP - WARRENS GONE OVER TO THE DARK SIDE


Who is one of the biggest indivdual beneficiaries of TARP bail out funds in America.

It wouldnt be good old warren buffet would it?????

Companies he owns significant stakes in recieved $95 billion in TARP money and the government guaranteess $133 billion of their debt.

Better than free float any time.

Front running the bail outs is a good ... no its a great strategy.

The stocks of the financials have become cheap call options.

And the price of the options cannot fall so long as the government keeps on bailing them out.


Over the long run, yes. Although there may be pullbacks and good opportunities for insiders to profit, and for banks to make some good coin temporarily by shorting themselves, as Citi has done before. See article from last April. Citi reported 2.5 bil profit-- essentially from shorting itself. I guess this is what people mean by "financial innorvation", huh? Guess where an essentially bankrupt company found enough cash to bet big on its own worthlessness? From your own pocketbook of course, if U R an American taxpayer. If only everyone who couldn't pay their bills next month could borrow enough money to bet big that they couldn't pay their bills next month, wouldn't that be good? The solution to all financial problems has been discovered here by Citi, LOL.

http://www.dailyreck...ing/2009/04/20/

#75 Dharmaeye

Dharmaeye

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,943 posts

Posted 08 November 2009 - 03:21 PM

Soylent Green movie on the SciFi channel this afternoon, soon.
For those who have not seen it, it is a probably accurate view of where we are going.





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart