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#46 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 01:22 PM

The more time frames one looks at, the more likely one is to find a SMA point of support / resistance somewhere, to explain a price reversal.

Is this not correct?


And, is there the risk of misleading one's self in the process? :mellow:



Yes, it is absolutely correct, that is the point I was making. Would you have been more mislead by reading just the hourly chart of BIDU, or looking at all 3 at the same time?

The BIDU example is not all that uncommon, and is often why you will see a lot of churning at tops while all the diff time frames start to flatten out, so that they can all start to turn down in unison.

I am starting to see that flattening process develop up here on ES swing time frames now. The first big pivot will be a move below 1060. If that happens, then all those shorter time frames will turn into resistance at 1060 for the short term.

Often times you will also get a move below the flattening time frames, and then one last push above as the time frames continue to flatten, and then the next time down rolls them all over, and a large decline begins. I have shown below a chart with the 4K tick time frame, which is usually a decent swing trading time frame. As you can see, we pushed back above after the big battle, at 1050, and the 4K is flattening as I described above.

If that pivot at 1060 is taken, 1050 will likely fall as well, and lead to a more extended decline. If we run significantly higher than a few more days, then everything starts to turn back up again like early September, and the risk of an extended run to the upside grows. While the top could come at any time, it is a bit risky to be short above that pivot put in on Friday. If it fails on Monday, the bears will very likely be in bizness. But will not be surprised to see a run to 1080 or perhaps a bit beyond.

FWIW, this link provides a T-theory case for the top coming Monday.

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=111894





I am also watching the 50k tick here real closely, especially the cyan 72 MA, as it has flattened out big time after the bounce off the 200. Bears DO NOT want to see that kink upwards, as it usually portends further move in the direction of the kink. It would be best to get back under 1050 before that happens, ideally Monday or Tuesday at the latest, and roll that 72 right on over the 200. We have the Neggie D's big time on this chart. Can the Bears get it done here?



#47 Charmin

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 01:28 PM

Care may be needed where the comparison in on futures vs cash. An ES day ain't an SPX day. More 1 hour bars on the ES per "day"..

Also Charmin -- by your arithmetic, I suppose by adding a whole lot of SMAs on a short timeframe chart, the info otherwise seen on a longer timeframe chart can be seen, all at once on the short timeframe chart.

I.e. A 4500 SMA on a 1 minute chart is a 900 SMA on a 5 minute chart.


As unsophisticated as I am, I typically use three moving averages - 8,21 and 50 and when I am looking at an hourly chart I know that a 50 bar moving average is an 8 bar moving average in a daily chart or at least an 8 bar moving average in a higher time frame. It does give a bit more perspective when you can see a few important moving averages in one sitting. I have set a 325 bar moving average in an hourly chart to give perspective to the 50 bar moving average in the daily.
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#48 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 01:40 PM

As unsophisticated as I am, I typically use three moving averages - 8,21 and 50 and when I am looking at an hourly chart I know that a 50 bar moving average is an 8 bar moving average in a daily chart or at least an 8 bar moving average in a higher time frame. It does give a bit more perspective when you can see a few important moving averages in one sitting. I have set a 325 bar moving average in an hourly chart to give perspective to the 50 bar moving average in the daily.


If you are using cash that is fine. You cannot compare a 24 hour futures chart in the same manner, unless you multiply inputs by about 4 to compare to daily.

For example, hourly ES futures chart generally compares well with 15 min cash. Although there are at times small discrepancies, like in September, when the 15 min cash scored a direct hit, and the hourly futures fell just short of the target. That is why I watch both cash and futures for clues.

#49 Charmin

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 01:54 PM

All I can say is, that if the 8 bar moving average moves back above the 21 bar moving average that most likely the stochastic will move higher and provide a gas pedal to price on the spx.

Brick wall needed

http://www.StockShar..._1255197050.png
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#50 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 02:06 PM

Is FHA going broke?

More stories of inept government run amok.....taxpayers gonna get da bill....again

Barney Frank quickly becoming my least favorite person.

The huge increase in risky loans by the FHA is a deliberate policy to try to prop up house prices nationwide. In a remarkable quote, this was admitted to by Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) who chairs the House Banking Committee:

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred, he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.


Essentially, it is playing the role of a sub-prime lender, and appears to be making many of the same mistakes the fallen or defunct sub-prime lenders made. For starters, it is allowing people to buy with down payments of only 3.5%. Further, people can use the $8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit for that 3.5%. Buy a house and walk away from the closing with a check in your pocket.

From the anecdotes in the story, it seems like many of these FHA buyers really have no business being homeowners in the first place, and are being set up to fail.

http://finance.yahoo...G...ml?x=0&.v=1

Times Article

http://www.nytimes.c...dzblZBfUGfq67Xg

#51 jickiss

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 02:13 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!

and

Dear roxy, for Sure, it is a lot easier to "Manage" One Billion doolars than to manage and grow, let's say, $100,000 doolars in a trading account. The Big Boyz have the advantage.

Back to your question, without saying anything against any anal cyst, (such as Doc) describing the mechanicals and the flows behind the curtain,

rather, it is suggested that you just look at a Pairs Chart as follows:

just use your Imagination. Imagnine you are running the usa Long Bond Position for the Vat tic can Desk.

ok? ok. When you "Run" the position for your Boss, your Boss will give you a Benchmark. The Benchmakr is the USA doolar, for it is still the so called Reserve Currency of the World. Therefore, you will use the following chart to guide (Stress is on the word here GUIDE) your thinking.....

in jickiss street talk, your Shorty gave the trouble-sell signal above in the small chart. da USA long Bond is in Trouble. The Major Desks want to lighten their USA long Bonds, or not, But YOU decide, based upon the following jickiss chart.

to your jickiss, the following chart says PLENTY.....But not all.....For if you have the Insiders Play Book, and IF there is an attack on the E Peoples by YE, then, expect a doolar rally to "happen by magic." If, again, IF such a doolar rally comes out of East Field, you can then sell ALL of your USA long Bonds into a doolar rally market!

Hence, if your jickiss were running the position of the above mentioned desk, (by example) scaling out now would be the idea, with a Large Desire to really hit the Bid if the E peoples are hit. With the Insiders Play Book, you can not lose...without it, well, there is risk is every trade.

ok?

here is the chart:

Attached Thumbnails

  • 10_09_2009__HOW_da_USA_Long_Bond_looks_to_the_vat_ti_can_desk_and_others.png

Edited by jickiss, 10 October 2009 - 02:14 PM.

"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#52 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 02:17 PM

Nationwide delinquency map....

http://www.huffingto...e_n_315547.html

Disturbingly, there are only a handful of counties across the nation where mortgage delinquencies are actually improving over last year. (Kudos to Beaverhead, Montana and Red River, Texas!)


Look out in the Wild Wild West.....



#53 Charmin

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 02:37 PM

I think I can make an assumption that this is one big bias shift against the downtrend going on now for 10 year treasuries. A bounce from the 50 day and stochastic turning up from here would be a continuing development against the bias.
http://www.StockShar..._1255199682.png
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#54 swordfish

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 02:59 PM

I think that it is interested to note the behaviour of AA (Alcoa) after the earnings. Im not saying about AH behaviour but rather days. It went down, I think it is saying something - the market will go down.
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#55 phatbubble

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 03:05 PM

I am also watching the 50k tick here real closely, especially the cyan 72 MA, as it has flattened out big time after the bounce off the 200. Bears DO NOT want to see that kink upwards, as it usually portends further move in the direction of the kink. It would be best to get back under 1050 before that happens, ideally Monday or Tuesday at the latest, and roll that 72 right on over the 200. We have the Neggie D's big time on this chart. Can the Bears get it done here?

Boy does that look like 3 divergent drives to a top...
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#56 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 03:09 PM

I think I can make an assumption that this is one big bias shift against the downtrend going on now for 10 year treasuries. A bounce from the 50 day and stochastic turning up from here would be a continuing development against the bias.
http://www.StockShar..._1255199682.png


As long as that kinking upward 200 day holds, I am bearish on bonds and bullish on yield, especially if we climb back above the 500 MA..

IF the 2 hundie fails, I aint gonna rule out new lows in yield. HUGE pivot just set.

#57 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 03:28 PM

along the lines of the BIDU chart before...

Here are the 10k and 20K tick looks at ES.

After dipping below the 10K line in July, ES bounced right on the 20K, and once back above the 10K, did a shuttle launch after the move over 900.

Now we have bounced off the 10K, and if we can get thru on the downside after this leg up finishes, the 20K is most likely first big target downside. If after a bounce there (am guessing around 990-1000), the 20K fails, then I believe the 200 day MA on SPX will come into play, and maybe even fill that July gap at 906. Would have to happen fairly quickly for the gap fill, as 200 MA just starting to rise above 900, and I doubt this coming down leg, if it materializes, would be able to take out that 200.

But first we gotta get back below 1060, and more importantly 1050.....

#58 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 03:38 PM

Note that a breach of the 10K tick 900 line would also breach both major trend lines on the daily chart, thus making the bear scenario quite a bit more likely.

#59 swordfish

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 04:37 PM

this is amazing, falling taxes surprised them. One time event? what a joke.

California Budget Is Already in the Red 10 Weeks After Passage

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will know within a month whether a $1.1 billion drop in revenue collections is part of a growing budget shortfall or an isolated event, his budget spokesman said.

Revenue in the three months ended Sept. 30 was 5.3 percent less than assumed in the $85 billion annual budget, state controller John Chiang reported yesterday. Income tax receipts led the gap, as unemployment reached 12.2 percent in August.

“The culprit here appears to be estimated quarterly personal income tax statements,” H.D. Palmer, the governor’s budget spokesman, said yesterday. “The numbers are cause for concern, but the issue now for us is to determine if this is a one-time event or whether it has more long-term implications.”

The latest figures show that California is facing resurgent fiscal strains brought on by the U.S. recession. Since February, Schwarzenegger and lawmakers have cut $32 billion from spending, raised taxes by $12.5 billion and covered $6 billion more with accounting gimmicks and borrowing. Even with those actions, state budget officials predict an additional $38 billion in deficits in the next three fiscal years combined, including $7.4 billion in the year starting July 1.

http://www.bloomberg...id=ahpLpu9sKLyY
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#60 DrStool

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Posted 10 October 2009 - 04:46 PM

Nationwide delinquency map....

http://www.huffingto...e_n_315547.html

Disturbingly, there are only a handful of counties across the nation where mortgage delinquencies are actually improving over last year. (Kudos to Beaverhead, Montana and Red River, Texas!)


Look out in the Wild Wild West.....


K- While you were in Africa, I posted the link to this tool.

http://data.newyorkf...editconditions/

This should keep you out of trouble for a while. :lol:

Have fun!

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