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Bears Long Weakend


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#31 Charmin

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 11:17 AM

my gut tells me that it kinda looks like an IT top...


I'd confirm it when 3 elements are below the 50dma.
Price and two other moving averages - (agressive and not so agressive ma's)

http://www.StockShar..._1254583209.png

and weekly test
http://www.StockShar..._1254583731.png

I believe weekly price will come back to meet the 50 bar ma (red line) through either a price correction or moving sideways and the 50 coming up to meet it.
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#32 Charmin

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 01:06 PM

I might add another VIX confirmation when the two ma's (blue & green) are above the 50ma (red) and price comes back down to retest the 50ma and holds it. We've already seen braking action on the stochastic

http://www.StockShar..._1254589585.png
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#33 Jimi

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 01:08 PM

A little baseball talk.

Dumbass Dodgers.

And then, there's this bit of UFB from the baseball world:

Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
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Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
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YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
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#34 Jimi

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 01:20 PM

Great recap this weekend in the second hour of the Big Picture of the Inflation/Deflation debate Financial Sense News ran the past month or so.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#35 mdporter

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 01:36 PM

A little baseball talk.

Dumbass Dodgers.


:rolleyes:

Gotta wonder what they are thinking. a magic number of 1, yet they go on a five game losing streak. Management should suspend the player's paychecks until they win a game.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#36 mdporter

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 01:37 PM

Just three months into the new fiscal year, several of San Francisco's largest departments are warning they will run out of money unless the mayor and Board of Supervisors find extra cash during one of the worst financial times in city history.

Already, the jails are housing 300 more inmates each day than planned for in the sheriff's budget. The public defender's office is declining five major felony cases a day, forcing the city to hire private defense lawyers instead.


And the fire, police and public health departments have told the controller's office they have concerns about their funding, too.

The calm that came after the mayor and board brokered a summertime compromise over this year's $6.6 billion budget could soon be over as they grapple with requests to restore funding to some departments while also bracing for an expected deficit of several hundred million dollars in 2010-11.


Budget woes

And it will only get worse as tax revenues continue to collapse.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#37 K Wave Rider

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 02:11 PM

Mauldin has a pretty good read in his latest email.

http://www.frontline...asp?ref=reprint

A few tidbits that kinda nail it....

So, where are the fingers of instability today? Where are the fault lines that could trigger another crisis? Are there any early warning signs? I see two possibilities, one positive and one negative.

Chad Starliper sent me the following graph. It shows the debt-to-GDP ratio for the US, adding in various levels of debt. For instance, the ratio of debt to GDP for all levels of government debt is 87%. But if you add household and business debt along with the GSE (government-sponsored enterprises) like Fannie and Freddie, the ratio rises to 331%. If you add in future benefits of Social Security and Medicare, the number becomes more like 1,000%.

The Obama administration tells us that the government deficit is going to be well over $1 trillion a year for at least ten years. And that does not take into account the outlier years in the 2020s when the really heavy lifting of Social Security and Medicare kicks in.

There is a truism that goes a little like, "If something can't happen, then it won't." Let me make a prediction. We won't have a trillion-dollar deficit in ten years. Why? Because it can't happen. The market will simply not allow it.

As I have written, we can run large deficits almost forever, as long as the deficits are less than nominal GDP. While it may not be the wise thing to do, it does not bring down the system.

But when you start adding to the deficit in amounts significantly larger than nominal GDP, there is a limit. Each dollar, like the grains of sand, adds to the potential instability of the system. Is it $2 trillion more? $3 trillion? No one can know, but the longer it goes, the worse the ensuing financial earthquake will be.

The current political class and their intentions are dangerously close to killing the golden goose. It is one thing to steal the eggs; it is an altogether different thing to kill the goose through ignorance of the consequences. And the size of the deficit, for as long as they plan to have it, will most assuredly kill the goose.

Just as I was writing in 2006 about the potential for a crisis, and yet the party went on for quite some time, I think the party can limp along now. But there will come a point when the party is over. Interest rates on the long end will rise precipitously, forcing mortgages up and making the deficit even worse. It will be an even worse crisis than the one we have just gone through. And there will be fewer options for policy makers, and none of them will be good or pleasant. And it will take most people unawares. They will see the current trend and project it into the future. And they will be hit hard.


#38 Lemur

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 02:16 PM

Great recap this weekend in the second hour of the Big Picture of the Inflation/Deflation debate Financial Sense News ran the past month or so.


Did it change your mind at all?

#39 ChickenLittle

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 03:31 PM

Did it change your mind at all?

I listened to all of it - very interesting stuff - but I increasingly find this debate not very useful. Why? Well I guess the reason folks are debating this is to try and get a handle on what markets might do - right? Well - I think it may be more productive to directly try to get a handle on what stocks, Dollar, Gold, Oil etc will do and while ofcourse this is very difficult to do - it is no more difficult than trying to figure out "deflation"/"inflation" - because even the definitions of those terms are not clear.
I als find analogies to prior periods interesting but possibly very misleading - I dont think the world has ever experienced quite this type of situation before.
For what it is worth I am leaning towards a sharp selloff in equities going longer and deeper than most - starting now. Also a selloff in oil and gold and a substantial and sustained rally in the dollar lasting a few months. Why?
1. Equities were artificially pushed up so a lot of financials and others could raise new equity to bolster capital. But there is a limit to how high and the timing may be opportune to let the air out. The big banks will pay big bonuses but mostly in stock( and make a big public show of saying th Cash bonuses have been slashed) - so having much lower stock prices would be beneficial.
2. Treasury auctions - who will buy? Fed is supposedly slowing down. So perhaps FCBs will be persuaded to buy dollars/print their own currencies and buy treasuries. If a strengthening trend starts in the dollar - this might create attractive returns to FCBs - at least for a while!
3. I think after a 3 month pop in the economy it is now been heading down since Aug/Sept. Cant imagine earnings will be good. Lots of toxic debts to be written down. Banks and other companies may take the opportunity to take a "big bath" for 3Q .
4. Political cycle - it migt be better to take a bath now and then create a more sustained bull run sometime next year. Not sure about this.

#40 ChickenLittle

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 03:58 PM

A couple more thoughts:
. The increasing angst in congress re the Fed. More anziety on the dollar weakness and the Fed's balance sheet. Calls for an audit etc. So strengthening the dollar amy take a bit of pressure off. Also many FCBs have been squaking about the weak dollar lately- Canada, Swiss, Euros and lately even Japan(toyota). This also fits with financing the Huge Treasury issuances coming.
. Oil has historically traded at about 7-8X nat gas. So should be around 35 on a btu equiv basis. Plenty of inventory and demand shrinking . Wild card is Iran - but I doubt anything precipitous will happen on this in the near term - too risky.
. Gold - lots of hot money seems to have piled in - hedgies in particular. Easily shaken out - particularly in this period when year end beckons.

. Treaury yields - dont know how the push/pull at the auctions work out - no reason to take risk in longer durations - although probably up to 2 years probably aint going anywhere for now. Would not be shocked to see 10yr go towards 2.5% - but I am not tempted to play this.

#41 ChickenLittle

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 04:24 PM

On the Puplava show today:
1. Russell Napier claimed that corporate cash flws very very strong based on corporate taxes??? From what I have seen - as of August corporate tax payments are DOWN som 55% yoy!! Any thoughts from anyone?
2. Mr. Puplava seems to believe the shadow banking system can create money! Only the Banks can create money - and with bank credit declining precipitously - money growth is very slow and aint nuttin the shadow banking system can do. There is just less money around and imploding debts - I dont feel safe in any debt other than short term treasuries because risks are increasing of a collapse in credit instrumrnts of all stripes. I think the microscopic yields on treasuries are telling this story quite well.
3. The overall US strategy is to export losses. The best way is to keep the furriners in bonds - longer the duration better. Because ultimately this will be defaulted on. Meanwhile create opportunities for domestics to buy up all the equity - because long term this is a claim on the businesses of America - which will have value even if the dollar goes away and is replaced in the future.

#42 mdporter

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 06:05 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An "avalanche" of large U.S. businesses will need to be restructured over the next 12 to18 months, said Rob McMahon, head of General Electric Corp's (GE.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Restructuring Finance Group.

McMahon told the Reuters Restructuring Summit in New York on Thursday that the recent slowdown in bankruptcies and restructurings was partly due to the easy terms of loans extended prior to the credit crisis.

"The only thing keeping more companies from filing right now is all the convenant-lite deals," said McMahon, whose unit is one of the leading providers of debtor-in-possession or DIP loans to bankrupt companies, "We're still heading for an avalanche of deals over the next 12 to 18 months that will keep the restructuring world quite busy."


link
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#43 cwd

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 07:52 PM

I got a message from chrome that I had a virus on my laptop. A Symantec search turned up this message. C:\U.exe is infected with Infostealer.Ldpinch
I would appreciate any help on how to get rid of this problem. Thanks in advance.

#44 quanta

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 08:07 PM

Mauldin has a pretty good read in his latest email.

http://www.frontline...asp?ref=reprint

A few tidbits that kinda nail it....

...


KWave,

Thanx for the post. I really like Mauldin as he is one of the few forward thinkers who can accurately assimilate from current trends.

From the article:

Can we avoid this calamity? Yes, we can wrestle the US budget deficit back under some kind of control, close to nominal GDP or on a clear trajectory to get there within a reasonable time (say, a few years). As noted above, we can run deficits close to nominal GDP almost forever. But there is no political willpower to do that now. And so, the market will at some point force the hand of the political class. That investor in St. Louis, or China or (????) will decide not to buy government debt at such low rates. The avalanche will start. And everyone will be surprised at the ferocity of the crisis. Except you, gentle reader. You have been warned.
Let me re-emphasize that point. If we do not get our act together, the results could be truly serious. And it is not just the US. Japan, as I have written, unless it changes, will hit the wall in the next few years. There are some really sick actors in Europe.


Who really believes that the US budget will get back under control? Obviously not Mauldin. So we are most certainly faced with his near future “avalanche”. After that happens, and it will pale in comparison to the coming October crash, things will be very, very different.
Don't look too close...
The current Weatha
In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
We're all frinkin' doomed The Mogambo Guru
In the long run, we're all dead John Maynard Keynes
If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal Emma Goldman
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana G. Marx

#45 T_Slim

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Posted 03 October 2009 - 08:20 PM

10-year Note:

Will this stupid piece of garbage obey and give some back this time? I think it's time to see if there is support . . . when zoomed out, it sure stopped at an interesting pivot zone . . .

Attached Thumbnails

  • 10_year_daily.gif
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