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Market Crashes!


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#31 phatbubble

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 10:12 PM

"These models ... suggest that a currency crisis is brought on by a combination of high debt, low foreign reserves, falling government revenue, increasing expectations of devaluation, and domestic borrowing constraints."

St Louis Fed (Abbigail J. Chiodo is a senior research associate and Michael T. Owyang
is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.) Paper

The US won't surprise everyone by going tits up some sunny morning like Russia in 1998 (well, at least LTCM was surprised).

Managing the expectations IS the game. IMHO we're about 2-3 months away from the game shifting up to the Gnarly Level.

Hope Beavis & BenHead have cleaned the goo off their joysticks and are ready to go.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#32 BusKow

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 10:17 PM

[snip]The expectations game is everything. [snip]


"But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal. "
Jeffrey Rogers Hummel FEATURED ARTICLE | AUGUST 3, 2009
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

#33 phatbubble

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 10:34 PM

"But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal. "
Jeffrey Rogers Hummel FEATURED ARTICLE | AUGUST 3, 2009

Yeah. Sorry if I warn't clear. Pretty simply, whether & when this takes place is a function of the trigger mechanism of how many & how fast people come to think it's likely.

Unless of course there's a master plan to crash the currency. Then it's just a when.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#34 Jorma

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 10:47 PM

Doc, The podcast ends abruptly at 28:36. 13,416KB

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog


#35 DrStool

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 11:06 PM

Oops. Have to fix that.

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#36 K Wave Rider

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 11:40 PM

On Constitution Day, Audit the Fed HR 1207 hits critical mass....



#37 Rationalize

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Posted 18 September 2009 - 12:02 AM

no need to default, all the U.S. owes is "dollars", which can be printed for free in maSS quantities
so U.S. has no problem
let's print a few Trillion more tonight!
it's all free baby
it's all good

Butt .. doollars can be used to buy "things" yeah ?

So, with more doolars about, we can all have more "things" !

Like with the cash for clunkers.

We destroy working things, and replace them with new cash, so that we can all have new better working "things" yeah ?

Save the planet, destroy a "bad" productive aSSet, get cash!

Soooo, here's the plan -- destroy more and more working "things", print more and more doolars, then .. it's new and better "things" for all !!

Better standard of living. "Wealth Creation".

[* Don't check your premises.]
PARTY! NORTH KOREA! SATURDAY NIGHT! BYOF (bring your own food)

#38 shorty

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Posted 18 September 2009 - 01:54 AM

You sound like shorty. You feeling ok this evening?

hay I reamsemble that reamark :angry2:

anywayz I finally got a buy signal on the spoozer, I'm a patient gal butt I think I've detected an uptrend now, so I'm ready ta flip hole hog long right here at the markit and ride this big bad bull
sideline $caSSh momo gotta own it
hold longterm the recession is over
stimulus worked green shoots all 'round

Cynical Pontificator of Crock Stocktology

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#39 mdporter

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Posted 18 September 2009 - 02:21 AM

<h2 class="entry-title">Radio Free Wall Street 9/17/09</h2> Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and Russ Winter discuss the barbell trade, and why it will lead to no good end. Lee Adler discusses how Fed and Treasury actions are likely to impact the market. The unemployment data isn�€™t as bad as it sounds. It�€™s worse.

Not a subscriber? Click here to hear a free preview.

Listen to any podcast prior to April 22, 2009. Click here for archive. Be surprised!

Listen to the July 17, 2009 podcast in its entirety for free.

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Posted Image Radio Free Wall Street Podcast 9/17/09 [37:29m]: Hide Player | Play in Popup | Download
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Doc, this graphic brought my safari browser to its knees, this happened yesterday here too when something else was posted. It doesn't happen with normal pictures. Is it a script of some kind? Safari reports the script is running slow.
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