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Market Crashes!


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#1 DrStool

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 04:17 PM

Well, down 3 sure feels like a crash. Everything is relative.

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#2 phatbubble

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 04:20 PM

My 4 year old just learned what a skidmark is.

I'm not sure how strong a topping indicator that may be.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#3 Sudaca

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 04:31 PM

Stock action is nothing compared to what I'm seeing in EM bond land. The buying frenzy has gotten to a point where it no longer looks like there's no tomorrow, but instead as if there's no next five minutes. The street has little to no inventory, and the buyers just lift offers from the dealer screens as if they were Nasdaq stocks. New issue junk deals that no one would touch just a couple of months ago are now being repriced before they even settle, and then gap up 2 or 3 points in the grey market. Argentine defaulted debt has rallied 50% in the last month alone. Short term sustainable? Yes, the flows are there. Money is still pouring into bond funds like mad, and into EM bond funds like crazy. Long term sustainable? I would guess not, but anyone who has even dared to short a bond in this environment has gotten their teeth kicked down their throat so hard they have to eat and chew out of their arse now. Would I buy one of these bonds for my grandmother? No. But if I am a benchmarked bond investor, I have to try and get the biggest allocation possible to the filthiest piece of garbage I can get my hands on in the primary market, ´cause the secondary is always and already a couple of points higher.

Loco, loco, loco, but hey.... it is what it is.
Thanks, David

#4 Sudaca

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 04:35 PM

Still riding BPZ... it's right at resistance, but I will resist the temptation to sell.

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Thanks, David

#5 shorty

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 05:35 PM

Stock action is nothing compared to what I'm seeing in EM bond land. The buying frenzy has gotten to a point where it no longer looks like there's no tomorrow, but instead as if there's no next five minutes. The street has little to no inventory, and the buyers just lift offers from the dealer screens as if they were Nasdaq stocks. New issue junk deals that no one would touch just a couple of months ago are now being repriced before they even settle, and then gap up 2 or 3 points in the grey market. Argentine defaulted debt has rallied 50% in the last month alone. Short term sustainable? Yes, the flows are there. Money is still pouring into bond funds like mad, and into EM bond funds like crazy. Long term sustainable? I would guess not, but anyone who has even dared to short a bond in this environment has gotten their teeth kicked down their throat so hard they have to eat and chew out of their arse now. Would I buy one of these bonds for my grandmother? No. But if I am a benchmarked bond investor, I have to try and get the biggest allocation possible to the filthiest piece of garbage I can get my hands on in the primary market, ´cause the secondary is always and already a couple of points higher.

Loco, loco, loco, but hey.... it is what it is.

who are the buyers? where did they get the money?
people fleeing money markets for bond funds? I think of lot of that "wealth" will be destroyed when rates go up, but I guess if the dollar totally collapses then bond funds in other currencies will be a good hedge right?
butt if Ben starts jackin' even a little, the dollar could pop and them folk what bought the EM bondfunds could lose 1/3 their money right quick, dubble whammy ratejack plus currency whack

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#6 itiswhatitis

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 05:40 PM

My 4 year old just learned what a skidmark is.

I'm not sure how strong a topping indicator that may be.


The one car tires make or the stool related one?

#7 phatbubble

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 05:41 PM

Somehow this seems relevant


Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#8 phatbubble

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 05:42 PM

The one car tires make or the stool related one?

#2

So to speak

Heh heh, heh heh
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#9 shorty

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 06:07 PM

$caSSh is a position, even my 0.28% money market, maybe not a bad position right now either

too bad so many folk aren't patient, they want that current yield return on their principal and don't think about the reamturn of their principal

$caSSh will still be king when all the B.S. gets flushed

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#10 itiswhatitis

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 06:17 PM

I've been thinking about Armstrong's thoughts on the possibility of a huge run up in the indices based on the concept of capital concentration. Very briefly and simplistically, it is possible to have a melt up in the indices as money flees government debt and goes into the market, gold, silver, etc...(not sure how difference this is from Mises crack up boom).

What I am trying to get my head around is how would this be possible if the US defaulted on it's debt? Wouldn't the cash, which is mostly credit at this point, basically evaporate?

I don't see anyway out of the debt situation other than print or default. If you were a Central Banker, what other creative option can be implemented?

How would the mechanics of a default occur; wouldn't people on the other side of the transaction only take something physical like gold (or whiskey, food, etc..), which would crash the prices of everything in dollars? In other words, if I had something for sale, I would pull my asking price in dollars and not take dollars at any price if I couldn't do anything with them

I need to think more about this... is it possible to compare anything historically to get an idea?

#11 itiswhatitis

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 06:19 PM

$caSSh is a position, even my 0.28% money market, maybe not a bad position right now either

too bad so many folk aren't patient, they want that current yield return on their principal and don't think about the reamturn of their principal

$caSSh will still be king when all the B.S. gets flushed


Only if you can get it out when the time comes.

#12 Charmin

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 06:30 PM

SPY gap resistance - red alert
http://www.StockShar..._1253226529.png

IWM gap resistance - red alert
http://www.StockShar..._1253226621.png
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#13 quanta

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 06:41 PM

Widget sez - restest or die...

Posted Image
Don't look too close...
The current Weatha
In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
We're all frinkin' doomed The Mogambo Guru
In the long run, we're all dead John Maynard Keynes
If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal Emma Goldman
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana G. Marx

#14 TenaciousG

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 06:42 PM

Somehow this seems relevant

http://www.youtube.com/v/MYEYbmgp0bY.swf



Too damn funny! :lol:
Cynically optimistic

#15 MrHanky

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 07:24 PM

Stock action is nothing compared to what I'm seeing in EM bond land. The buying frenzy has gotten to a point where it no longer looks like there's no tomorrow, but instead as if there's no next five minutes. The street has little to no inventory, and the buyers just lift offers from the dealer screens as if they were Nasdaq stocks. New issue junk deals that no one would touch just a couple of months ago are now being repriced before they even settle, and then gap up 2 or 3 points in the grey market. Argentine defaulted debt has rallied 50% in the last month alone. Short term sustainable? Yes, the flows are there. Money is still pouring into bond funds like mad, and into EM bond funds like crazy. Long term sustainable? I would guess not, but anyone who has even dared to short a bond in this environment has gotten their teeth kicked down their throat so hard they have to eat and chew out of their arse now. Would I buy one of these bonds for my grandmother? No. But if I am a benchmarked bond investor, I have to try and get the biggest allocation possible to the filthiest piece of garbage I can get my hands on in the primary market, ´cause the secondary is always and already a couple of points higher.

Loco, loco, loco, but hey.... it is what it is.

Muni's gapping up big the last 2 days (and the last 6 weeks for that matter),I will miss much of it now but still in the game with less holdings.I was as much as 150% long until a few days ago,now about 80% long..... but somehow I feel naked missing out on the extra profits I could have had. :unsure: :unsure:

But I have been sticking with "quality"....Nothing less than A+ ratings in my holdings,most are at least AA.....FWIW

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