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#31 DrStool

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 10:30 PM

Danger! Entering Parabolic Blowoff Mode- Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Wednesday, September 16, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit There’s absolutely no sign of any weakness in the 6 month cycle numbers, as that cycle continues to drive the rally. Also, 13 week cycle status finally edged to the plus side. If this measure strengthens from here, the market could be going into the kind of parabolic blowoff where shorting could be hazardous to your financial health. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#32 DrStool

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 10:34 PM

It is amazing that in a metropolitan area of 24 million people the Yankees do not sell out every home game in new Yankee Stadium. New York is a suckass sports town. Really. How could you not sell out Yankee Stadium? Shame on you New Yorkers!

The Muts I can understand. :lol:

What a pathetic franchise. Let's go Muts!

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#33 mdporter

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 10:39 PM

City News Service

LOS ANGELES (CNS) -- Unable to reach a deal with employee unions, the City Council voted unanimously Wednesday to move ahead with a budget-cutting plan that would eliminate 926 positions and require thousands of unionized employees to take furlough days beginning Sept. 28.

Council members insisted, however, that they would continue negotiating with the Coalition of Los Angeles City Unions in hopes of reaching a deal on an early retirement program that might eliminate the need for layoffs and furloughs.

The vote came after a marathon closed-door negotiating session that stretched over two days, with city officials and labor leaders trying to forge an agreement that would help close the city's $405 million budget deficit while minimizing layoffs and furloughs.

Meetings that began at 11:40 a.m. Tuesday continued until midnight, then resumed at 9 a.m. Participants included members of the City Council, representatives from the mayor's office, budget anal cysts and leaders of the coalition.


L.A. headed for inferno.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#34 mdporter

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 10:39 PM

It is amazing that in a metropolitan area of 24 million people the Yankees do not sell out every home game in new Yankee Stadium. New York is a suckass sports town. Really. How could you not sell out Yankee Stadium? Shame on you New Yorkers!

The Muts I can understand. :lol:

What a pathetic franchise. Let's go Muts!


Is the new stadium there any good?
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#35 shorty

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 10:49 PM

looks like it's over, S&P ready ta break down hard here :unsure:

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#36 phatbubble

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 11:08 PM

If we close that gap to 1100, at LT trendline & fib resistance, in the thick of an astro turn cluster, on an opex Fri....I will short the piss out of it. The downmove should last at least until Monday.

Ol Yeller holding steady AH.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#37 Dr.Correll

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 12:14 AM

I've said enough over the past few days. Speaking to those of you who do not subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition, if I haven't aroused your curiosity by now, you're hopeless, and I give up. :lol:

To those of you who are subscribers, thanks for your support! I feel that I have revealed too much of the themes of our current analysis, so I am now going to Shut the F up. :lol:

If you have more specific comments or questions, feel free to email me via the on site contact form, or give me a call at 561-839-3726. I'd be happy to speak with you if time permits. Your feedback is always helpful to me in better understanding and communicating the issues we face.



Doc,

I think its about time I become a member. About a year ago I subscribed for a month, so I think it would be criminal of me to get another month free. Is there anyway to start the subscription without the free month? The true analysis comes from this board and I plan to be around for some time. ;) Just keepin on learning what they wont teach.

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#38 howard in nyc

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 12:21 AM

ticket prices in the new yankee stadium are obscene. then there are all the other ways to suck money from the fans. they probably sold more tickets last season than the phillies last season or this; old yankee stadium had a capacity of over 60k. the ticket prices were high, probably the highest in the majors, but considering new york, not unreasonable. now, greed is their only concern when it comes to the fan base. and they have lots of empty $300 and $500 seats.

mets prices are only slightly lower. i love baseball, and i can afford it, but i refuse to pay these prices.

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#39 nymphcaster

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 01:43 AM

Liquidity.
Foreclosure abeyance on many levels. (quite popular in times of trouble where banks don't want to move an account to distressed because the bank is distressed and can't move the account there without fessing up).
New funny bank rules designed to lessen populace anxiety by pretending about accounts.
Dollar problems, as in how many can the issuer continue to issue.
Running into commodities to attempt to hedge/thwart dollar other currency issues, even though commodities probably actually suck.
Which sucks more is the question?

A bunch of commodities as companies I think are worthless over the long haul, versus intra-day or year gaming. Yet people race to these becuase they have more fear of money being devalued (generally proven to be a truism for decades).

What comes after commodities? You can't project another 100 years on money printing and commodities especially with all the warnings about ecological tipping points. When my child was little he used to ask me: What comes after man? I ask a similar question of the market, because you have to ask it. What comes next (in the really long run).

One might be complete derangement. Another might be some global order on less consumption. We're not there yet, but "less is more" might be a new cry, which would include all governments in all areas cutting expenses. We see the beginning now with furloughs that are even affecting the court system and judges. Even the stalworts of excessive spending have dramatic cut-backs in mind. What happens when unemployment insurance payments run out and states and muni's run through any "rainy day" money?

If you look at the debt model, it is failing in industrialized societies. The idea that the savior of industrialized societies should be to spread it to peasants in China and India is silly. For one, China could do it first and presumaby better than the like of Citicorp due to better understanding of their own culture and populace.

Getting people into debt is great in the short term. Getting people to save and conserve is also important versus continuing as a giant throw away society of the 80's and 90's. Imagine if everyone threw away what we did. Using used stores (value village or goodwill) is considered okay/responsible, though not trendy. People are teaching their children how to use these because they are teaching their children how to budget when the spigot is foreseeably cut off via dramatic increases in tuition and costs.

I have no idea what people were thinking with NINJA loans, other than collapse of currency, which appears to be pretty much the issue no one addresses in the government. If you are a NINJA loanee, you are counting on collapse of the dollar and wanting an asset (like shelter). If you are a slice and dice grantor, maybe not so good. Of course, I am sure nearly every little guy didn't realize what that supposedly safe bond or fixed income fund held. When you have an aging (boomer) society there is a lot of interest in "safe things." I can't imagine who thought that that "insurance" they had for all invesments might seem like naught. They were told they were insured. Hence some heartache over some AIG and ilk ills.

With commodities, I don't think there is any insurance even proffered. (Maybe someone has developed such a market by writing credit default swap type things in excess of the amounts, but I don't know about that. Likewise I don't know how "squared", "tripled" or "doubles" are done and get solved each day. If you have to clean up the ecological mess left, I don't see where the profit margins are unless one truly needs the commodity and the company has restoration costs baked in.

#40 howard in nyc

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 01:52 AM

Andrew Gause - Aug. 12 the inflation money of 1.75 trillion was unleashed.


the fed press release from august 12th says this:

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October.


doc, i have to admit, in the last weeks of august, i did not read your fed report every night. sorry, teacher. and i apologize if i am asking a subscribers' only data question. but is this something important? has the trend of weekly fed purchase of crap agency mbs and bonds shifted since this announcement?

thanks.

eta: nevermind. it is all there in the back of your reports. i guess i haven't been reading thoroughly enough. i was just focusing on the treasury auctions data.

dr. correll, you are in for a treat. as well as other new subscribers.

doc, a bigger thanks for all the work. now if you can download it directly into my brain, so i don't have to actually read it.
"He who sells what isn't his'n,
Must buy it back or go to pris'n."

#41 DrStool

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 08:08 AM

the fed press release from august 12th says this:



doc, i have to admit, in the last weeks of august, i did not read your fed report every night. sorry, teacher. and i apologize if i am asking a subscribers' only data question. but is this something important? has the trend of weekly fed purchase of crap agency mbs and bonds shifted since this announcement?

thanks.

eta: nevermind. it is all there in the back of your reports. i guess i haven't been reading thoroughly enough. i was just focusing on the treasury auctions data.

dr. correll, you are in for a treat. as well as other new subscribers.

doc, a bigger thanks for all the work. now if you can download it directly into my brain, so i don't have to actually read it.



Howard- I understand. I have no time to read anything except the Philly sports pages. :lol: But yes it's all there in the report. Covered it extensively at the time of the announcement and since. It's at the heart of the issues we face.

I realize the report is very long, which is why I break the text up into black, brown and blue. Black is the stuff that's updated in today's report. Brown is the stuff that comes out... uh.... weekly or monthly, yeah that's it, and is therefore updated once a week or once a month. Blue small font is more or less the historical boilerplate and background, which is infrequently updated but gives new readers the context of what came before.

I try to write in a way that anyone can understand, and hopefully make the story as much fun to read as possible. It ain't easy, and I don't have nearly enough time to do the job as well as I would like to! The important thing is that I try to stay at the cutting edge of the research in this area and to keep subscribers ahead of the crowd with as clear a picture as possible of what's really going on and how it fits together in the overall scheme of things. At that, I think I have succeeded very well over the 6-7 years that I have been writing the Fed Report.

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#42 howard in nyc

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Posted 17 September 2009 - 12:21 PM

Howard- I understand. I have no time to read anything except the Philly sports pages. :lol: But yes it's all there in the report. Covered it extensively at the time of the announcement and since. It's at the heart of the issues we face.

I realize the report is very long, which is why I break the text up into black, brown and blue. Black is the stuff that's updated in today's report. Brown is the stuff that comes out... uh.... weekly or monthly, yeah that's it, and is therefore updated once a week or once a month. Blue small font is more or less the historical boilerplate and background, which is infrequently updated but gives new readers the context of what came before.

I try to write in a way that anyone can understand, and hopefully make the story as much fun to read as possible. It ain't easy, and I don't have nearly enough time to do the job as well as I would like to! The important thing is that I try to stay at the cutting edge of the research in this area and to keep subscribers ahead of the crowd with as clear a picture as possible of what's really going on and how it fits together in the overall scheme of things. At that, I think I have succeeded very well over the 6-7 years that I have been writing the Fed Report.

you have succeeded very well, and your writing is very clear and understandable. the color coding is a great technique. for over a year, i was reading each report slowly and thoroughly. if i missed a day or two, i would catch up on weekends. i literally approached my learning about the economic situation as schoolwork. your reports, the message board discussions, and various other internet sites and a couple of dozen books on econ and finance were my study materials. sometime in the spring, i kinda burned out. combination of disgust and resignation. and i really slacked off on reading your fed reports. looking at the first page, and peeking on the treasury action, and just keeping in mind the curve of pd liquidity provision, w/o worrying about the details.

also, i don't actively trade, so i am lacking that motivation to keep up with the details. my only investment decision in the past six months has been deciding what percentage cash/bullion in my portfolio is best (if a mattress and a wall safe can be called a portfolio).

but last night, after the giants' game, i went back and read. yep, all there. amazing, hundreds of billions, tossed about, and no one in the main stream even mentioning it, much less jumping up and down screaming. mind boggling.

i'm getting burned out, disgusted, and resigned again. i really need a giants/phillies wild card matchup, to cheer me up.
"He who sells what isn't his'n,
Must buy it back or go to pris'n."





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