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#1 DrStool

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 04:07 PM

In Denial – Professional Edition Fed Report


by Lee Adler, Wednesday, September 16, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit $20 billion in Treasury paydowns and $1.8 billion in Fed purchases of Treasuries on Wednesday will all settle tomorrow. $22 billion sloshing around will go a long way toward sending short term rates to zero and boosting the speculative mania for stocks. That euphoria could abruptly shift tomorrow… Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#2 Bungster

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 04:18 PM

I know what I'm doing tonight! UFA!

AA_lunch.jpg
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#3 mdporter

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 04:27 PM

November will start the two month Christmas push for overconsumption. This Christmas season will start earlier than ever as desperate retailers will attempt to sell.

The battle for holiday sales is about to erupt in the toy aisle.

Toys R Us announced Tuesday that it will open 80 temporary stores next month in shopping centers across the country, an aggressive maneuver by a company that just a few years ago was nursing its wounds after a brutal price war with Wal-Mart. This season, the retailer seems determined to take the offensive. It will also open toy shops in more than 260 of its Babies R Us locations and has bought the rights to its defunct rivals KB Toys and FAO Schwarz.

"We're energized by the opportunities this holiday season for those who are aggressive," Toys R Us chief executive Jerry Storch said.

But it's not the only retailer ramping up toy operations before Christmas. Sears has already installed permanent toy shops in 20 stores in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Chicago. Behemoth discount retailer Wal-Mart said it is planning exclusives with popular licensed brands such as Bakugan and Transformers.

"I think every lever that can be pulled will be pulled," said Anita Frazier, senior industry anal cyst for the market research firm NPD Group.


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The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

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#4 phatbubble

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 04:33 PM

Here's that gold chart from Jesse's crib that cwd mentioned on IDS.

Would be surprised if we don't tag 1033 again here short term, whether or not that's followed by a pullback/finger/whatever.

Long a couple contracts as an overnight scalp.

No no, cut the blue wire...

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Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#5 Goldmember

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 04:55 PM

I know what I'm doing tonight! UFA!

AA_lunch.jpg



A fine idea...might I suggest this brand: :P :lol:

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Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#6 Charmin

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 05:20 PM

All that "Helicopter Ben" cash sloshing around for stocks will be amortized for another 50 years. Let's party now while we kick the can further down the road.

Just think what kind of cash the government will have when they get to create their own hedge fund, like an insurance company, in the new healthcare industry.

Loads of cash will be at their disposal that we will all pay into. I doubt premiums will go down. They'll probably make sure you get the idea that it's your "duty to die" when it comes time.
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#7 Jorma

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:07 PM

Doc, was the Fed accepting anything other than Treasuries in its open market operations before the March 18th buying program?

Well even if they don't take non Treasury stool, just because the special program is ending doesn't mean they can't feed the beasts need for newly printed cash. Ordinary open market operations have always done that just fine.

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#8 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:12 PM

the Min pin pump stock tonight..PPG

Re iterated his apple pump but failed to mention Oracle is lobbying for the same accounting hocus pocus because it's dog poo
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#9 DrStool

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:23 PM

Doc, was the Fed accepting anything other than Treasuries in its open market operations before the March 18th buying program?

Well even if they don't take non Treasury stool, just because the special program is ending doesn't mean they can't feed the beasts need for newly printed cash. Ordinary open market operations have always done that just fine.


OMO as we formerly knew them essentially ended on December 31. They started the Permanent OMO for GSE paper in... January??? I'd have to look it up. I think they announced in November and started buying in late December. They stopped doing Temporary Ops in December. Before that is was virtually the only tool used in monetary policy operations. The MBS buys are not part of OMO since they are handled in negotiated deals through Ass et managers. The MBS program also started late last year.

Temporary Repos outstanding were never more than $40-50 billion. I don't see Temporary OMO being able to replace the expanded permanent ops.

God knows WTF they're going to do. Having tracked these assholes every day for the last 7 years, I'd bet my last dollar that they don't even know what they are really going to do. This is ad hoc, pull it out of your ass policy making at its worst. They keep throwing shit at the barn door hoping some of it will stick, but most of it is hardened and bounces right back at them.

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#10 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:24 PM

next op ex front run...NITE

just pumped it through a 52 week high
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#11 Scully

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:39 PM

God knows WTF they're going to do. Having tracked these assholes every day for the last 7 years, I'd bet my last dollar that they don't even know what they are really going to do. This is ad hoc, pull it out of your ass policy making at its worst. They keep throwing shit at the barn door hoping some of it will stick, but most of it is hardened and bounces right back at them.


But please keep calling it like you see it. I took a big loss today on a SPY short because I underestimated the inflating impact of the government debt bubble. In my defense, I never imagioned that the lenders to the US federal government would have allowed them to do this. Whatever happened to the bond vigilantes? It boggles my mind that major institutions, from PIMCO to the People's Bank of China, continue to lend to the Treasury, while they gotta know full well that the Treasury is on the way to bankruptcy.

The party can and will continue in denial as long as the lenders are willing to continue to lend. It appears that $2.5T of new debt per year doesn't discourage the lenders, other than the fact that they are leaning more toward short paper now instead of long. Nothing to stop the Treasury from issuing and rolling over exclusively short paper from now on - especially with the bid to covers as they are.

All bubbles burst eventually. But this one could run for a long time still.

#12 mdporter

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:45 PM

But please keep calling it like you see it. I took a big loss today on a SPY short because I underestimated the inflating impact of the government debt bubble. In my defense, I never imagioned that the lenders to the US federal government would have allowed them to do this. Whatever happened to the bond vigilantes? It boggles my mind that major institutions, from PIMCO to the People's Bank of China, continue to lend to the Treasury, while they gotta know full well that the Treasury is on the way to bankruptcy.



This is the problem with thinking about funnymentals while participating in the market. It is my #1 weakness.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#13 DrStool

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:46 PM

There are no bond vigilantes. The Treasuries are just trading vehicles, like everything else. No one intends to hold to maturity. The rising prices of Treasuries are strictly due to the fact that the banks simply have no other options at the moment.

Those bid/covers will start coming down next week. This looks like the final blowoff to me. We are about to cross the Rubicon. The Treasury market will have its day of reckoning.

Speaking of Rubicon... :lol: You gotta love it.

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#14 DrStool

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:53 PM

I feel that I can assure you that the world's ability to absorb an ever increasing supply of Treasuries is finite. Economies which do not generate profits do not create capital. Without new capital, the spreading Fungus Federalis Goofermentus will eventually consume the whole pie.

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#15 T_Slim

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Posted 16 September 2009 - 06:55 PM

So much for a reversal on nat gas . . . good thing i only play breaks of lows and highs :blink:

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