Jump to content


Photo

We Don't Need No Green Shoots


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
47 replies to this topic

#1 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,383 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 04:05 PM

When you have $20 billion cash from Uncle, you don't need no damn green shoots.




Wherefore Art Thou, Green Shoots – Professional Edition Fed Report


by Lee Adler, Monday, September 14, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Monthly tax receipts for August are out and the comparisons are ugly. Meanwhile, Treasury paydowns this week mean that there’s $20 billion floating around with no place to go in this little game of musical chairs. A few billion here and there to pump into stocks goes a long way, as we see by the tape action. Every selloff becomes a dip buying orgy. Ugly. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#2 jickiss

jickiss

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,716 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 04:14 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

Potentially a Giant Story,

unless all of, meaning each and every one, of the "Made Guys" is truly Untouch-able.

They are all Masters of the Soft Touch.

will the AG press on, to Re-Touch, or be Turned?

http://finance.yahoo...t...ml?x=0&.v=4
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#3 Bungster

Bungster

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,610 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 04:19 PM

Long BGZ at 22.08... :unsure:

bear_target_w.jpg
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#4 Jorma

Jorma

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,353 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 04:32 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

Potentially a Giant Story,

unless all of, meaning each and every one, of the "Made Guys" is truly Untouch-able.

They are all Masters of the Soft Touch.

will the AG press on, to Re-Touch, or be Turned?

http://finance.yahoo...t...ml?x=0&.v=4



There are higher courts. Years and years of litigation, subject to review again and again. The important thing is the institutions live on. This appears to be one of those times where all the liability wavers for corporate officers may fail and a few may walk the plank. Which in the end is a big so what. The system lives on. Countrywide and Merrill live on in different forms. Taxpayers will take many of the losses. So it goes.

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog


#5 jickiss

jickiss

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,716 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 04:51 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


yup. this land ain't the land of da peepole...

http://www.youtube.c...feature=related
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#6 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,383 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 05:13 PM

Weak 13 Week Cycle, No Problem – Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Monday, September 14, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Cycle based stock screening data was mixed, with 4 measures stronger and 5 weaker, suggesting that the rally should take a breather. 13 week cycle status is still barely neutral. While this may have slowed the rate of ascent it hasn’t stopped it, as the 6 month cycle indications have stayed strong. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#7 jickiss

jickiss

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,716 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 06:00 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and for sure, nobody Splains Why.

How is it possible for Nothing to Happen for so many long months, since the Lehman Take Down????

well, keep your Ring Side Seats and study the Secret jickiss doolar-Gold Indicator.

remember, lower is the key to dropping doolar and Gold advances.

Ready, Set, Hike!

Attached Thumbnails

  • 09_14_2009__secret_jickiss_doolar_gold_indicator_hangs.png

"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#8 Scully

Scully

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,251 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 06:30 PM

Doc: I continue to appreciate the Money and the Fed section of the WSE. It remains the best analysis of the Fed's actions on the internet. Regarding the Sept 12 edition and the graph on p. 28 showing the massive amount of $$ pushed to the Primary dealers: If we compare to the graph on p. 31 which shows Alphabet Soup, and in particular total Fed credit, it seems possible to draw the following conclusions:
- Total Fed credit is going sideways, not growing.
- Money to the Primary dealers is growing very fast
- The above two facts can only coexist because of the decline in Soup programs and the increase in Securities on p. 31.

Assuming total Fed credit continues sideways, the decline in Soup can only go so far (firm support at zero) meaning the growth in cash to the Primary Dealers on p. 28 must stop rising.

Stating it differently, TAF is the only program with any significant amount left outstanding (around $200B) so if Fed credit continues constant, then the cash to the Primary Dealers can only rise another $200B. But the rate of decline in TAF has slowed in the last 2 months to maybe $20B per month, hence the cash to the Primary Dealers can only rise by $20B/month - a vastly lower rate of increase compared to what has happened since, say, March 2009.

Restating this differntly again, the last $100B increase in cash to the Primary Dealers on p. 28 required total Fed credit to increase by roughly $100B as shown on p. 31.

So as I understand it, the continued growth of the cash to the Primary Dealers on p.28 means the Fed must continue to print money to purchase "securities" as shown on p. 31. But in its public statements, this is exactly the activity which the Fed has stated they will be scaling back. If their actions are the same as their words, this means the cash going to the Primary Dealers is about to top out. And in turn, that is bearish.

Maybe I am just "talking my book" regarding my current underwater SPY short position, but doesn't this add up to a potential top in the S&P500? In light of the massive stock market rally and the fact that TNX and hence mortgage rates are nicely under control, it would be tough for the Fed to justify initiating a whole new program of printing money right now, when they have made public statements to the contrary.

I read in this same WSE edition that the Fed is buying MBS from the banks, and the banks are using the new cash to buy short term Treasury bonds (hence the massive bid-to-covers for T-bills). But even assuming this continues, I don't believe it has any direct impact on the cash to the Primary Dealers graph on p. 28. I recognize that the MBS holdings are toxic waste so this Fed program is, in fact, improving the quality of the bank credits at the expense of the quality of the Federal Reserve credits. But correct me if I am wrong - I do not see how this would make any difference to the graph on p. 28.

I am reading a bearish signal in your data. Would love to hear your comments on this.

#9 shorty

shorty

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,938 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 06:49 PM

night session pain fer bully!
spoozer down a full pernt already
comin' off the rails, this could git fugly faSSt
550 by EOY
git out
run

Cynical Pontificator of Crock Stocktology

Tiger's Wood, Anthony's Weiner, Barney's Frank, Herman's Cain, Harry's Reid, Elliot's Spitzer
 


#10 MrHanky

MrHanky

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,306 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 06:55 PM

I think what we need to get going is a huge gap up...2 or 3%,then a red close.Flush out the rest of the shorts,if there are any :unsure:



But My best guess is we start lower before the week is out one way or another..........this topping process is brutal.



:wacko: :wacko: :wacko:

Nothing


#11 shorty

shorty

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,938 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 07:02 PM

“The green shoots are certainly out there – the question is what kind of fertiliser is being used on them,” said William White, the highly-respected former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements.

Worldwide, central banks have pumped thousands of trillions of dollars of new money into the financial system over the past two years in an effort to prevent a depression.

Meanwhile, governments have gone to similar extremes, taking on vast sums of debt to prop up failed industries from banking to car making.

These measures may already be inflating a bubble in asset prices, from equities to commodities, he said, and there was a small risk that inflation would get out of control over the medium term if central banks miss-time their “exit strategies”.

Cynical Pontificator of Crock Stocktology

Tiger's Wood, Anthony's Weiner, Barney's Frank, Herman's Cain, Harry's Reid, Elliot's Spitzer
 


#12 mdporter

mdporter

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,191 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 07:17 PM

A growing number of homeowners in the Bay Area and around the country are finding themselves unable to borrow against the equity in their home, as beleaguered banks take away a financial safety net many homeowners had counted on.

And now some of those homeowners are fighting back.

Cupertino homeowners Jeff and Jenifer Schulken filed suit this summer against JPMorgan Chase, charging that the bank unfairly terminated their home equity line of credit even though the couple provided documents showing that they could repay the money.

"They weren't even interested in verifying whether I could pay it back. They just want these things off the books," Jeff Schulken said, adding he had $160,000 available on his credit line in March when he got a letter from Chase asking for tax documents. He sent them immediately, and was told when he called the bank that the inquiry was only a formality and his equity line was not in jeopardy.

"The next morning, I got online and we had zero available credit," he said.


Cancelled Credit

That's gonna leave a mark in the Bay Area. People will have to keep their cars for a few more years, the horror.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#13 psyche doctor

psyche doctor

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,301 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 07:41 PM

I think what we need to get going is a huge gap up...2 or 3%,then a red close.Flush out the rest of the shorts,if there are any :unsure:



But My best guess is we start lower before the week is out one way or another..........this topping process is brutal.



:wacko: :wacko: :wacko:


Personally, I too think we are topping. I think we get a gap down again tomorrow, so I guess we can try this again.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#14 jickiss

jickiss

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,716 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 07:45 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

For Sure, the Bankers (Thimk China and Asia) have told the Bonkers in the USA to cut off da Sheeple (Joe 6 or 12 or 18) as in the Kali $160,000 example above.

The Bonks in the USA are already bankrupt, when Marked to Market....Joe 6 wants cash.....Joe 6 would like to HOLD CASH, a la Mr. Prechterd thimking.

Guess What? Their Bonkers are going to hold it for them, and they will hold it FAST!

let's see....if overnite monie is less than 1%, but credit card revolver interest is (for them with excellent credit scores maybe around 11%, (and all the way up to 29.99 for the rest) )

one might imagine that this type of lending would be a good business.

but alas, the Bonkers now would rather Sit on the Money.

Can anyone see where this is all heading? OK, your jick says thimk like this.....10 dollars exist.....with interest, 11 has to be repaid to close the deal out to -0-.

where does the eleventh dollar come from? If it can not be borrowed, then, Defaults loom, bigger than you can imagnie......

Doom, in other words.

Doom.

Massive Defaults and Bks Loom.

only Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners Related will shine.

Thimk!
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#15 shorty

shorty

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,938 posts

Posted 14 September 2009 - 08:05 PM

10 dollars exist.....with interest, 11 has to be repaid

guess a lotta folk like that San Fannycrisco fellar gonna hafta sell their AAPL and GOOG common
ta git $caSSh
laSSt out the door git double-digit fills
them what hold all the way down, them what drank the Kool-Aid, git nuthin'
no bids
markit holiday, shut down
and the knee cappers and thumb breakers gotta make a livin' too :ninja:
pay up

Cynical Pontificator of Crock Stocktology

Tiger's Wood, Anthony's Weiner, Barney's Frank, Herman's Cain, Harry's Reid, Elliot's Spitzer
 






Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart