[aussiebear]

http://www.engrish.c...y-was-on-board/

[aussiebear]

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

[aussiebear]

http://money.cnn.com...s/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com




http://www.kitconet....ase_metals.html

Energy futures

[aussiebear]

Posting this from my parent's steam-powered pc. Tellya there's a real danger of dozing off in between page loads...

An ebullient market so far. All Ords +2.3%, REITS way up there, +3.7% followed by Miners +3.5% and Materials +3.4%. There's only one red sector, Telecomms -1.8%.

[Rationalize]

...

[Rationalize]

Ok ok ok .. On Commod ETFs, futures rolls, and tending to zero...

Lets say I'm looking at a future on a commodity. [Gas / Earl / Gold / whatever.]

Contract nominal price is, lets say $100,000. [It is to buy $100,000 of the commod, in the future, at a price agreed today.]

Margin required is, let's say $10,000.

Now, as a buyer, I outlay 10,000 today, to settle the remaining 90,000 +/- in the future.

The douchebag on the other end ef the contract has, in theory, bought the commodity today at spot, and is storing it somewhere. [This is the way the stuff is physically hedged.]

So ... how much should I pay for the futures contract?

Well, the douchebag has to pay interest on the 100,000 he borrowed, and he has to pay to store the commod.

And, this is the premium above spot that I end up paying to him. Interest + Storage. [contango].

Now, if I am rolling from contract to contract, I get to pay this premium again! More interest cost. More storage cost. All of this is due to his additional holding tme.

...

So, there is no evil rip-off here with the Commod ETFs IMO. This is just the price one pays for buying commods forward.

Would you rather buy at spot, paying the full 100,000, and then paying to store the stuff?

[Please tell me I'm wrong about any part of this. Not stating absolutes here, just opening up discussion.]

p.s. This is pretty standard "no-arbitrage" pricing theory. The trouble with commods is you have to put them somewhere, and, in the mean time, they produce no cashflows. Yes, there can be backwardation at times, butt, net net, the above holds.

[Jetlag]

jickiss, on Aug 23 2009, 09:01 PM, said:

jickiss is back!

can some Model really be Defamed by an anon Blogger that says that the Model was a cheap Ho, or whatever, when the Model wants to look like one, maybe, or just does, naturally? come on, judges, get a new Bench cushion! In other words, If you want to live by Fame, well, just expect to die by it, but maybe Fame will make you rich.....what is the Big Deal??????

this case linked below is very interesting....Tyler, are they gonna Shake your Tree and make you fall onto the Lawn?

click, and read all about Poor Thing Innocent Sweet MODEL!

http://finance.yahoo...e...ml?x=0&.v=2

Yeah Jick the justice system is everything but justice

You cut up someone's face (arguably a model's money maker) you get 30 days slap on the wrist

"Liskula Cohen (born February 3, 1972) is a Canadian-born fashion model, based in New York, [...] On January 14, 2007, Samir Dervisevic, a New York City doorman, struck her in the face with a bottle. She was rushed to a hospital where she received 46 stitches. Derisevic pleaded guilty in October, and was sentenced to 30 days in jail and three years' probation, according to court records. He was arrested again in July 2008 and charged with a similar crime."

http://en.wikipedia....i/Liskula_Cohen


You exercise your free speech rights and you get snitched and thrown out to the lions. The blogger should sue Googler back, butt that's probably an exercise in frustration as the Googster can feed an army of top mercenary lawyers through any arduous battle campaign.

[Lemur]

Rationalize, on Aug 24 2009, 04:47 AM, said:

Ok ok ok .. On Commod ETFs, futures rolls, and tending to zero...

Lets say I'm looking at a future on a commodity. [Gas / Earl / Gold / whatever.]

Contract nominal price is, lets say $100,000. [It is to buy $100,000 of the commod, in the future, at a price agreed today.]

Margin required is, let's say $10,000.

Now, as a buyer, I outlay 10,000 today, to settle the remaining 90,000 +/- in the future.

The douchebag on the other end ef the contract has, in theory, bought the commodity today at spot, and is storing it somewhere. [This is the way the stuff is physically hedged.]

So ... how much should I pay for the futures contract?

Well, the douchebag has to pay interest on the 100,000 he borrowed, and he has to pay to store the commod.

And, this is the premium above spot that I end up paying to him. Interest + Storage. [contango].

Now, if I am rolling from contract to contract, I get to pay this premium again! More interest cost. More storage cost. All of this is due to his additional holding tme.

...

So, there is no evil rip-off here with the Commod ETFs IMO. This is just the price one pays for buying commods forward.

Would you rather buy at spot, paying the full 100,000, and then paying to store the stuff?

[Please tell me I'm wrong about any part of this. Not stating absolutes here, just opening up discussion.]

p.s. This is pretty standard "no-arbitrage" pricing theory. The trouble with commods is you have to put them somewhere, and, in the mean time, they produce no cashflows. Yes, there can be backwardation at times, butt, net net, the above holds.

So the claim that these ETF's will grind towards zero is ...... incorrect?

[Rationalize]

Lemur, on Aug 24 2009, 07:33 PM, said:

So the claim that these ETF's will grind towards zero is ...... incorrect?

If the spot price does not move up more than the interest and storage cost across the life of the forward contract then yes, each roll will move the NAV lower.

The point is more along the lines of "did anyone expect otherwise" in a flat or declining underlying merkit ?

E.g.

Q: If I get a bohner for physical gold, buy a bunch, and rent it a room, will it all end well if the price of gold is flat or falling?

A: Hell no. At best, I'm out for room rent, and opportunity cost on the cash deployed.

The appreciation in the underlying must be greater then the storage and opportunity cost just to break even.

[Rationalize]

Isn't karma a b*tch.

"Madoff is also making new friends at the prison complex through another unlikely clique -- the homosexual posse, although the relationships are purely platonic, according to the sources. "

http://www.nypost.co...jail_186175.htm

[Jetlag]

The ETF's do as advertised. The CFTC is either dumb because they should've known the ETF's worked this way or they're being disingenuous to get the individual investor out of the gravy train just when it was about to leave.



This whole thing about limiting speculation (AKA intervention in the markets) in commodities is going to end badly as most interventionism does.

Higher prices today make producers invest more and in fact it can be argued that selling future production based on the current higher price will help them finance the capital investment necessary to get the commodities off the ground.

By intervening they'll be risking making prices today artificially lower while China's buying the crap out of commodities in 'merging countries for pennies on the dollar (the buttwipes they're trying to get rid off, 'memba?). Then we'll have that 1000xsuperspike Goldham Sacks was advertising and no paper amount of dollah's will buy you anything.

[Rationalize]

Less big commodity positions = less liquidity = more volatility = more fun for small speculators?

[Jetlag]

"Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus. "

http://www.bloomberg...id=aXbZZWXPR5mw


Investors left out of the bull run off the March lows are also exasperating for a dip.


Permabear McHuge is purportedly looking for a breakout to 1230 and only then a lower leg down below 666.

"Stocks Rise Friday. Has wave (3) up started, or is another leg lower coming? Also, we see a major move in Gold dead ahead. "

https://www.technica...com/Default.asp
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=110308

Perma? Bull Bikinyi calls for 1700 in 2 to 3 years and makes a three month forecast based on the linear continuation of the current ROC.

"Birinyi predicted on May 20 that the S&P 500 will climb to a record 1,700 in the next two or three years, a 66 percent gain from its current level. The index has rallied 14 percent since he made that forecast. The benchmark index for U.S. stocks may rise another 5.9 percent to 1,087 within the next three months “if it continues to progress at the rate it’s been progressing,” Biryini said. "

[Jorma]

Do the leveraged, or non leveraged commodity ETF's or ETN's perform any worse than the stock ones? I have no clue, just figured they were equally bad with the leveraged ones being, as someone said here, are functions that trend to zero.

On principal I think all should be eliminated.

Also the NY Times is ringing a little bell about tax advantaged retirement plans. If one was paranoid it could lead to the idea that there is going to be a move coming to make it even harder to make early withdraws.

http://www.nytimes.c...ion/24mon1.html

[DrStool]

Professional Edition Precious Metals Update 8/24/09

by Lee Adler, Monday, August 24, 2009, in Precious Metals, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Today’s gold stock screens and data, along with cycle conditions and projections for gold and HUI index, and Chart of the Day picks for swing trades. Indispensable daily information for gold and precious metals stocks traders. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers).Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.