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A start, is it the beginning or the end?


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#16 Goldmember

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 09:35 PM

ES fell today to its 15 min 900MA and its 30 min 500MA.

The next obvious pasta shport, ES 30 min 900MA, is around 973...which is also a couple pernts from the hourly 500MA at 970 (both rising).

Broadly speaking I'd like a bigger drop here, then a retrace to a lower high in later/end Aug, riddled with neggy Ds.

Then we could put another log on the fire.



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#17 Rationalize

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 09:54 PM

Details for me, too. Thanks for them. Never traded futures contracts (yet...).

Jimi -- if you're out there..

Just remember that the futures are levered at about 97%, or about 30:1. [Varies a bit on different contracts.]

They're a little like the crack cocaine [or so I'm told]. So very good and so very very bad.

If there's any gambling instinct in you, futures may be a trigger, so be careful.

64 tick moves on the 10 year futures do happen from time to time. That's about $1000 per contract.

Be aware or beware. :ninja:
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#18 Jorma

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 10:16 PM

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped the most in a month, led by financials, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said credit losses may overwhelm capital at MBIA Inc. and anal cyst Dick Bove said bank earnings won’t improve in the second half of the year.

MBIA, the biggest bond insurer, tumbled 13 percent after JPMorgan cut the company to “underweight.”


http://www.bloomberg...id=axQzK3rGdcSw

What can you possibly say? There are thousands of fiduciaries that think that MBIA is a good or at least a viable investment. JPM said underweight now? We used to sit here at the Stool in Windy's days 5 years ago and marvel at this piece of shit holding 60. Underweight now? Just shoot me.

I saw something the other day about a guy called in to discuss and advise government people on some issue I won't bother to mention. Now his summary of this isn't meant to point a finger at government but his comment was that he came in and they told him they were going to drive off a cliff. Their question was should they wear a seat belt? 'No no' he says, "Don't drive off the cliff". Oh, no, they were going to drive off the cliff, should they wear the seat belt, they kept asking. 'I suppose so, WTF'. That's what the whole world feels like.

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#19 Charmin

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 10:59 PM

If your a full fledged bear here, you'd want the market to repeat what happened after Aug. 11, 2008
http://www.StockShar..._1250045990.png
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#20 byhiselo

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 11:25 PM

hang seng down 2.5%...its a start

#21 byhiselo

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 11:31 PM

i posted the following on another board in response to someone's query about what one's profit goals are on a daily basis...on a daily basis for the love of money and all the things it can buy!...just copying it here on the chance a young stoolie might benefit...i've paid much to grok this paragraph:

$400-500 per day if/when i daytrade which is only 1-2 times a week, but that is a bloody tough nut to crack and often just a trade around an existing position...hey i've watched this (fill in your symbol) for a while so generally have a feel for its moves...more of a swing trader with a goal of a very satisfying 5-10% per month which pretty much everyone on the planet would/should kill for...doesn't happen every month, 2-3% per month is huge if you have some capital behind it...one is king of wallstreet if you can make 15-20%/year consistently, the money will find you without doubt...5% month with 10K is no big deal, with 100K i'm impressed, with 1mil you are one in a million, with 1bil you are one in a billion or less...i try to ritually avoid having more than 5-10% of my capital in any single position although i can get up to 40-50%% of my port in a directional short/long speculation over multiple instruments...its served me well...one of the most important points i've learned is you don't have to be in the market every day or even every week...trying to profit daily is pretty much a fools endeavor imho....its ok to be wrong, staying wrong gets expensive...fwiw and in interests of disclosure, i trade appx 75K account ex. 401k/IRA but anything over 75K is regularly siphoned off into a savings account and this money does not go back into the market except in very rare instances...and with this winded disjointed reply, i bid you good trading and cheers

#22 phatbubble

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 11:33 PM

If your a full fledged bear here, you'd want the market to repeat what happened after Aug. 11, 2008
http://www.StockShar..._1250045990.png

An angle of descent similar to earlier declines this year would bring us to that next lower trendline (& heavy shport) around 810-820 by mid-Sep...
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#23 byhiselo

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 11:36 PM

An angle of descent similar to earlier declines this year would bring us to that next lower trendline (& heavy shport) around 810-820 by mid-Sep...


and that would be an even lovelier potential inverse H&S...assuming of course that it inverses from there...

#24 byhiselo

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Posted 11 August 2009 - 11:41 PM

If your a full fledged bear here, you'd want the market to repeat what happened after Aug. 11, 2008
http://www.StockShar..._1250045990.png

i'll take bear eruption for $800

#25 phatbubble

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Posted 12 August 2009 - 12:06 AM

and that would be an even lovelier potential inverse H&S...assuming of course that it inverses from there...

If so might be an XXcellent entry point for the miners.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#26 Rationalize

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Posted 12 August 2009 - 12:20 AM

i posted the following on another board in response to someone's query about what one's profit goals are on a daily basis...on a daily basis for the love of money and all the things it can buy!...just copying it here on the chance a young stoolie might benefit...i've paid much to grok this paragraph:

$400-500 per day if/when i daytrade which is only 1-2 times a week, but that is a bloody tough nut to crack and often just a trade around an existing position...hey i've watched this (fill in your symbol) for a while so generally have a feel for its moves...more of a swing trader with a goal of a very satisfying 5-10% per month which pretty much everyone on the planet would/should kill for...doesn't happen every month, 2-3% per month is huge if you have some capital behind it...one is king of wallstreet if you can make 15-20%/year consistently, the money will find you without doubt...5% month with 10K is no big deal, with 100K i'm impressed, with 1mil you are one in a million, with 1bil you are one in a billion or less...i try to ritually avoid having more than 5-10% of my capital in any single position although i can get up to 40-50%% of my port in a directional short/long speculation over multiple instruments...its served me well...one of the most important points i've learned is you don't have to be in the market every day or even every week...trying to profit daily is pretty much a fools endeavor imho....its ok to be wrong, staying wrong gets expensive...fwiw and in interests of disclosure, i trade appx 75K account ex. 401k/IRA but anything over 75K is regularly siphoned off into a savings account and this money does not go back into the market except in very rare instances...and with this winded disjointed reply, i bid you good trading and cheers

Very different here.

Trading futures almost exclusively, and some currencies.

Generally looking for 4 to 8 ticks per day, on ES, ZN or similar. Equity index futures, bond futures, some currency futures, and spot currencies.

Day trade mainly. Very rarely hold overnight.

Compounding is the key.
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#27 byhiselo

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Posted 12 August 2009 - 12:23 AM

If so might be an XXcellent entry point for the miners.

i'll take GDX under $30, for well err....under $30 alex?

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  • GDX_weekly_08_09.JPG


#28 byhiselo

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Posted 12 August 2009 - 12:25 AM

Very different here.

Trading futures almost exclusively, and some currencies.

Generally looking for 4 to 8 ticks per day, on ES, ZN or similar. Equity index futures, bond futures, some currency futures, and spot currencies.

Day trade mainly. Very rarely hold overnight.

Compounding is the key.

time frames different, strokes most likely the same... :)





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