Jump to content


Photo

GS sez it, it must be


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
51 replies to this topic

#16 BusKow

BusKow

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,361 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 09:21 PM

Another view of this oft-mentioned topic :wacko:
06AugSP_Bonds_Long.png
06AugSP_Bonds_Long2.png
06AugSP_Bonds_Mid.png
06AugSP_Bonds_Mid2.png
06AugSP_Bonds_Short.png
06AugSP_Bonds_Short3.png

EDIT: Decided I'd like the S&P price in there - BUTT I'll skip the total redo :rolleyes:
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

#17 phatbubble

phatbubble

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,331 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 09:29 PM

Chris Martenson spots the Fed's game of Hide The CUSIP. Zero Hedge & Karl D picked it up too.

Looks like the Fed waited a week, and then took half of last week's 'successful' 7-year auction off the PDs' books.

Are we already at this level of desperation with the shell games?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#18 byhiselo

byhiselo

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 767 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 09:46 PM

I'm callin' fer 550-600, which will teach mad dongers the meaning of "Depression".


will never happen...unless it does :unsure:

if we get that low, going to test the 1994-1995 range under 500...wailing and gnashing of teeth and assorted calcium deposits:

Attached Thumbnails

  • spx_monthly_aug2009.JPG


#19 quanta

quanta

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,150 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 09:53 PM

Chris Martenson spots the Fed's game of Hide The CUSIP. Zero Hedge & Karl D picked it up too.

Looks like the Fed waited a week, and then took half of last week's 'successful' 7-year auction off the PDs' books.

Are we already at this level of desperation with the shell games?


Makes you wanta puke, don't it?
Maybe those guys at HPH have a handle on what's coming down the pike?
Don't look too close...
The current Weatha
In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
We're all frinkin' doomed The Mogambo Guru
In the long run, we're all dead John Maynard Keynes
If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal Emma Goldman
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana G. Marx

#20 byhiselo

byhiselo

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 767 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:25 PM

now and then chart porn eye candy:

http://i27.tinypic.com/2zdwsuu.gif

#21 phatbubble

phatbubble

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,331 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:26 PM

Makes you wanta puke, don't it?
Maybe those guys at HPH have a handle on what's coming down the pike?

Dunno. But I have to say it's a little alarming to see the monetization done so plainly.....right in front of God & everybody. Only not enough folks have noticed. Yet.

I think in one of my astrojingles a couple years ago I mentioned there would be a challenge to or transformation of the Fed. Anyway, the heavy astro guns start pounding the US currency & bank (Fed) this fall, especially going into November. This is, oddly enough, the timing in the HPH report for the theme of dollar death.

In case anyone's missed it, there is in fact a significant amount of chatter around the web about a bank holiday / dollar devaluation / elite power consolidation this fall. The comments sections on some sites show the visible tip of a seething hotbed of pretty informed resentment.

Sad to say it, but those idiot wives mentioned in IDS probably have no idea that real danger may not be far off, depending on how things unfold.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#22 Charmin

Charmin

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,177 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:27 PM

1050-1100 by the end of the year?...bloody bold call... <_<


For gold that is a good call.

Bloody is being in a "death spiral". It goes like this:

Sales down leading to crashing budgets
Costs rising
Raise prices because costs rising
Sales down because of raising prices
Costs rising
Raise prices because costs rising
Sales down because of raising prices

Spiraling... faster and faster towards bankrupcty
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#23 Charmin

Charmin

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,177 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:29 PM

1050-1100 by the end of the year?...bloody bold call... <_<


Bloody call:

1930 to 1940 is ten years - and world war breaks out.
2008 to 2018 is ten years - and world war breaks out.
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#24 howard in nyc

howard in nyc

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 370 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:33 PM

you guys beat me to posting a link to that martenson piece. i wanna hear what doc has to say about this (and i'm gonna go read the latest fed report from the wall street examiner, in case doc has already addressed).
"He who sells what isn't his'n,
Must buy it back or go to pris'n."

#25 BusKow

BusKow

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,361 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:38 PM

I just had to do one more...truly hysterical chart...yields inverted to portray price

Attached Thumbnails

  • 06AugBonds_Price_Long.png

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

#26 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,487 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:38 PM

Chris Martenson spots the Fed's game of Hide The CUSIP. Zero Hedge & Karl D picked it up too.

Looks like the Fed waited a week, and then took half of last week's 'successful' 7-year auction off the PDs' books.

Are we already at this level of desperation with the shell games?



I got an email on this from a subscriber worried about what he was reading from the hysteria mongers. Actually a couple of emails-

Below are my responses

1.

It's hogwash. Where's the evidence? Fed did nothing different from what they've been doing since they announced the program in March. I'm not a fan of that kind of hysterical, non-analysis. I think that you know how careful I try to be in understanding the data and connecting the dots.

Then in response he sent me the link to the Martenson (Fuzzwah) piece.

I resonded-

Thanks again for forwarding this material. As you know, I have been tracking this stuff daily as it occurs for a number of years, so I am very familiar with the data. I analyze and write about it extensively in my reports to you. The Fed has been doing this since March. The schedule is prepublished. There's just nothing new, or sinister, or hidden here. We have known since March 18 when the Fed openly and loudly announced it to the world that it would be monetizing longer dated Treasuries. They bought $14 billion of the $62 billion in notes that settled this week. We knew in March exactly how much they were going to buy, and over what period- $300 billion over 6 months. That's $50 billion a month, which averages out to $12 billion a week. They have been pretty close to that amount week in and week out. The purchases are a bit heavier in weeks when the Treasury is doing note sales. How is this a shell game? The Fed told us exactly what they would do, and now they are doing it. How the media interprets the auctions is the media, not the Fed. They don't know what the hell they are talking about, so I pay no attention to it. The media is noise. Like I said, I don't go for the hysterical approach preferred by Martenson, Denninger, and Zero Hedge. It's great for building a readership, but it's not my style. I see it differently than they do. That's all. Thanks for your support!
subscriber-

Is why I subscribe to your Fed report for a "sounding board". Excellent reports btw. But doesn't this materially overstate reported demand at the initial treasury. Basically the PDs are flipping almost half of the purchase back to the Fed with the result being a vastly distorted perception of demand for Treasuries.


me-
Right. That's the perception. That's where traders earn their keep. By fading the perception. We have the data on the PDs debt holdings through trailing 10 days. They are holding near record amounts of longer dated Treasuries. In the past they were normally heavily short. Just doing a quick calc in my head the Fed bought about 30% of what the PDs took down last week. That's very bullish for stocks, but it didn't help the bond market much. We continue to note that yields have surged since the Fed began QE. I have been unremittingly bearish on Treasuries. Given the volatility and manipulation, they're tough to trade from the short side, however. My objective is to keep you whole and in the game. I will attempt to address your concerns in future reports. Thanks for writing!


him-

Thanks. I find the Fed report and podcasts with yourself, Aaron and Russ very useful. To all, great work gentlemen.




If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#27 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,487 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:41 PM

Your Long Term updates are my favorite. Giant context. They're super.


Thanks Jimi- I know you're a tough critic, so I take the props as a supreme compliment.

Context is everything.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#28 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,487 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:43 PM

No! Wait!

Liquidity is everything!

But context sure beats whatever comes turd. :lol:

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#29 phatbubble

phatbubble

    Associate Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,331 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:47 PM

Thanks Doc. We know (and know more, thanks to you) that they've been monetizing bonds.

I guess the big question was how unusual (or not) it is to have such a quick and specifically identifiable pass-through from an auction that 'went well'.

Maybe this is often the case. Which would be more and not less worrying.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#30 howard in nyc

howard in nyc

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 370 posts

Posted 06 August 2009 - 10:59 PM

thanks doc. kitty is no longer afraid, and can get some sleep.
"He who sells what isn't his'n,
Must buy it back or go to pris'n."





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart