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#31 Jetlag

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 08:34 PM

Yeah, I sort of remember them, using alGoreRhythms, like our intelligence agencies, to analyze "internet chatter", key words& phrases, repitition, etc. to predict inflection points and future phenom. I don't know about their track record but higher costs for what you need to live and deflation everywhere else, sounds about right to me.


I read a bit more on their site and I think I've got that stamp somewhere over here... ah! here it is!

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#32 Jimi

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 08:38 PM

I don't know about their track record but higher costs for what you need to live and deflation everywhere else, sounds about right to me.


I posted a chart of negative y-o-y income.

Negative real income growth creates "higher costs for what you need to live" for individuals.

On a macro scale, it can result in asset deflation since: 1) the higher relative percentage of annual (shrinking) income going to service existing debt will tend to result in greater incremental defaults, and 2) lower nominal annual income reduces the available household leverage base, diminishing the incremental capacity to finance levered assets.

Those assets will fall in price.

I think this is our future for the next several years. Perhaps as many as 10.

That's why I think that Rothschild guy's purchase of government bonds may prove very smart.
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#33 Speakeasy

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 08:40 PM

I read a bit more on their site and I think I've got that stamp somewhere over here... ah! here it is!

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:o :lol: :lol: :lol: Very likely. Who does know what's going on these days, besides Doc of course? hmmm? :D Have you checked out the Aden Sisters? I hear they're ahead of everyone.
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#34 Speakeasy

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 08:57 PM

I posted a chart of negative y-o-y income.

Negative real income growth creates "higher costs for what you need to live" for individuals.

On a macro scale, it can result in asset deflation since: 1) the higher relative percentage of annual (shrinking) income going to service existing debt will tend to result in greater incremental defaults, and 2) lower nominal annual income reduces the available household leverage base, diminishing the incremental capacity to finance levered assets.

Those assets will fall in price.

I think this is our future for the next several years. Perhaps as many as 10.

That's why I think that Rothschild guy's purchase of government bonds may prove very smart.

Yep, I knew what you meant. Return of as opposed to Return on. Thee and me, the last deflationist stoolies. Buy! Buy! :lol: :lol:
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#35 cwd

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 09:07 PM

I read a bit more on their site and I think I've got that stamp somewhere over here... ah! here it is!

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:lol: :lol:

#36 Jetlag

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 09:23 PM

:o :lol: :lol: :lol: Very likely. Who does know what's going on these days, besides Doc of course? hmmm? :D Have you checked out the Aden Sisters? I hear they're ahead of everyone.


The Aden Sisters don't have that Madoff-consistent-returns BS smell, they're better than say 90% of newsletters out there. Does that mean they're very good or are the 90% very bad?

One trait that stands out is their gold buginess (and dollah bearishness) and that alone might be a good reason to explain much of their outperformance over the last ten years. I also wonder if they've been like this since the inception of their newsletter back in the early 80's or if they successfully recognized this move into hard assets in 2000 and bailed out of stocks into commodities, foreign currencies and foreign stocks. That's what makes great long term investors, they recognize the change in the longer trends and jump wagons at the onset of the big moves and ride them out til it's time to jump again.

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But they're probably not as stellar and consistent as it would seem at first glance:

"And it's been doing well in the new gold bull market that began in 2001. Over the last 5 years, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, the Aden Forecast is up an annualized 14.78% vs. 9.65% for the dividend-reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. See Dec. 11 column.

But over the last 12 months, as gold has staggered and stocks surged, the Aden Forecast is up only 2.99% vs. 14.52% for the dividend reinvested Dow Jones Wilshire 5000"

So they were underperforming and jumped back into the market in May 2007...

http://www.marketwat...s-rising-higher

Anyway on paper they seem to be doing better than outperformance legends like Billy Miller, Buffet and Madoff :lol:

#37 Charmin

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 09:36 PM

You know the state of the real economy when Lumber Liquidators breaks out
http://www.StockShar..._1249521914.png

and on another note company STOOL happily reported to their stock investors a month ago that margins were down, sales were down and the debt to equity ratio was higher than it's ever been. The STOOL was also happy to announce they were in the best financial situation since they invented the modern day plunger some 70 years ago. Tests were even conducted on this plunger and they say it still has 70% of it's life expectancy remaining.

Today, company STOOL is in crisis. They gathered up employees to tell them they needed to find another 3 million in cost cutting measures, even after slashing the budget in prior months. Employees will be expected to receive no cost of living this year and it needs suggestions on how to force older employees to either retire or get booted. A free plunger will be given out to the best cost cutting suggestion.
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#38 Brick Stoolhouse

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 09:57 PM

Judge Tells California to Let Loose 40,000 Inmates to Prey on a Frightened, Defenseless Populace

SAN FRANCISCO -- U.S. judges on Tuesday told California to prepare to release more than 40,000 of its 150,000 inmates to reduce overcrowding in state prisons, which suffer from massive healthcare problems.
That would clear up to 37,000 beds over two years, estimated California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation Secretary Matthew Cate.


the sad part of this is, accordin' my figgers, it gonna break up 3,000 perfectly good romances

:D :lol:
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#39 Jorma

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 10:25 PM

It's probably just me but things seem awful spooky. This AM they saved bonds, almost certainly in the futures pits so that meant a stock sell off, check. Then the bonds sink and sink and sink some more as TJ's buddies executed short squeezes on all manner of absolutely crap stocks. I don't think this is what they, whoever 'they' are, had in mind.

And the dollar index is in suspended animation for 60 hours. What's up with that?

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#40 DrStool

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 10:29 PM

Pacman Market- Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Wednesday, August 5, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit The market continued to try to chew through massive overhead supply, with short term indicators mixed and 13 week cycle indicators still in positive structures. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#41 phatbubble

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 10:37 PM

I read a bit more on their site and I think I've got that stamp somewhere over here... ah! here it is!

Posted Image

LOL
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You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#42 dharma

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 10:43 PM

I couldn't agree more about it ending badly.
The question is how long can they keep the wheels on
and will it end in inflation,deflation or stagflation.

i agree this will end badly
if i had to guess i would think this ends in a stagflation.
however w/the size of the debt and the dollar being the linchpin for the financial universe. i can only think that having real assets is the way to go. dharma

#43 phatbubble

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 11:07 PM

The euro looks overcooked here nearing multiyear resistance @ $1.45.

Either those are some neggy Ds forming, or this thing is just getting warmed up.

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  • XEU_daily_090805.png

Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#44 phatbubble

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 11:18 PM

Shank High down 2.8% so far.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.





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