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#1 DrStool

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 04:06 PM

It's getting old.

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#2 Charmin

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 04:12 PM

4 dayz of being neutralized. Pigmen must have something in mind by now.

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#3 Bungster

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 04:32 PM

The buy/sell signals are getting weaker while the indecies are at resistance....VIX and USD rising......I'll take my chances with a small chort... :rolleyes:

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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
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#4 Bungster

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 04:36 PM

The buy/sell signals are getting weaker while the indecies are at resistance....VIX and USD rising......I'll take my chances with a small chort... :rolleyes:

beast_must_die.jpg


If it bleeds....we can kill it!

predator1.jpg

;)
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#5 mdporter

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 04:42 PM

Sprint on Wednesday revealed spring quarter results that show the Palm Pre having relatively little impact on its health. The company's losses widened to $384 million compared to $341 million a year ago and it reported losing about 257,000 total customers, shrinking to 48.8 million users. While it gained 938,000 prepaid customers on Boost Mobile, this and other gains were offset by losses across the board, including 393,000 of its core CDMA phone network users.


Cell Phone Madness


Those 6,000,000 people who are now unemployed are going to have to start dropping unneeded services, like cell phones costing $50 a month.
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#6 briarberrys

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 04:47 PM

Visa did OK but ... 8 losses / 12

LSI Corp. Q2 loss 9c vs 2c year ago
Varian Medical Q3 net income 68c vs 58c
Lincoln Financial Q2 net loss 62c vs earns 48c
Symantec Q1 net income 9c vs 20c
Visa Q3 Class A net income 97c vs 51
Royal Caribbean sinks on loss, outlook
Brookfield Homes Q2 loss 12c vs 33c year ago
Aflac Q2 net income 67c vs $1
Flextronics International swings to a loss
Tesoro Q2 loss 33c vs 3c EPS year ago
Hartford Q2 loss 6c vs $1.73 EPS year ago
Lam Research Q4 loss 70c vs 57c EPS year ago

#7 Jimi

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:02 PM

10 year yields have risen from 2.1% at the beginning of this year to 3.65% now. I believe that that's a direct result of the constant barrage of supply. Short term drops this year have only come when the Fed made a manipulative announcement (which resulted instantly in a major selling opportunity) and for a few weeks when supply was reduced.

From your comment, I deduce that you are arguing for a change in trend. I am wondering on what basis. Reduced supply? Increased demand? I see little likelihood of either, short of another stock market crash. So I'm curious as to your rationale.


I got busy yesterday and couldn't respond to the M2M, but really wanted to. I have thoughts on this, but apparently work is going to dictate that some wait.

But I want to say that I think you reveal an analytic vulnerability above. And it is the following.

You note that 10-year yields have risen from 2.1% to 3.65% now, as a direct result of the constant barrage of supply. I don’t dispute that. In the aggregate, what does that mean for the incremental costs the USG has paid for the net additional debt that's been issued in that time? I imagine quite a lot: incremental supply creates its own incremental costs. I assume that you would acknowledge, therefore, the implication that "They" can't control price over periods of time that stretch into weeks/months/years. Supply dictates price over those periods.

That leaves manipulation only available over very short time frames - which is essentially what you've maintained in that, on auction day, certain observations are made regarding fluctuation in equity markets, whose activity benefits the incremental pricing of debt issuance over periods of minutes/hours. I believe it is believed to have recurred today, and in fact, Speakeasy posted a very compelling two-day chart. Wash, rinse, repeat.

I lay this out in this manner, because I honestly do not want to misrepresent any claim, and thereby create a situation where I am disputing arguments that no one is making, and put anyone in a position to "defend" positions they never made. That's not my interest here - I am agnostic about all this stuff, but am a ruthless unforgiving empiricist who is only seeking compelling evidence.

Now, presumably, some Party somewhere is directing execution of a series of trades in public capital markets to create a momentary pricing advantage on pubic debt around auction time. On a relative basis, in terms of the acknowledged incapacity of this same Party to control the longer term trajectory of the yield curve and thereby (more) advantageous pricing, the incremental pricing advantage is actually a drop in the proverbial cost bucket... since the intra-day basis point advantage is frankly background noise to the inter-week basis point disadvantage that the supply itself creates.

That about right?

If I understand the hypothetical mechanism, it involves battering down of equity markets ahead of auctions to generate incremental fear and therefore incremental demand for the public debt being issued (under the theory that I do not dispute that liquidity must flow somewhere).

Now, as a tedious empiricist, let me say that the price behavior of the auction itself is not sufficient evidence of presumed manipulation – I think that is where I depart with someone like Patents here for whom price-patterns are sufficient evidence of manipulation. They are not for me. To some extent, I find that perspective akin to Creationists pointing to the variety of Life on the planet as sufficient evidence of a Divine Creator. That is sufficient evidence for some; similarly, price behavior evidence should be as abundantly apparent to everyone as the Lord’s creatures are of His existence to a Born Again.

It doesn't suffice for me.

“So, what evidence would convince you?” Well, first the Intervention Theory needs mechanisms – in this case, selling in equity futures markets has been floated. Okay. As such, on auction day, there should be some incremental volume to reflect the market-moving participation of the Party who otherwise is not around on non-auction days. That would be a useful indicator to me of that mechanism.

Here’s another question – empirical – that can be estimated: “What sort of avoided cost is the Party generating by this intervention?” That is, but-for the intervention of the Party, how many bps higher would auctions be clearing, and what then is the implied savings on financing? (Not to drag CWD/Zero Hedge into this, but there was a similar claim & exercise available regarding claimed manipulation in overnight equity futures markets a few weekends ago – I did the math and determined to my own satisfaction that despite claims that only a very, very large player could have been the party, in fact, its size was overstated and the representations of it did not hold water to my satisfaction).

So, to give an example, here is a snip from Bloomberg today:

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury notes fell after a government auction of a record amount of notes drew higher-than- forecast yields for a second consecutive day, renewing concern a deluge of U.S. debt will overwhelm investor demand.
The $39 billion in five-year notes yielded 2.689 percent, more than 2.635 percent median forecast of eight primary dealers surveyed by Bloomberg News.

http://www.bloomberg...id=ax1OllrFe9fc

Okay, a little math with my TI BAII+

N = 5 (years - ignoring biannual coupon payments)
PMT = 1.11891 (i.e., ignoring biannual payments, 2.869% coupon rate times the $39b offering)
PV = -$39
FV = $39
I/Y = ?

Calculating I/Y = 2.869 (but then, I have simply demonstrated a truism about coupon rates and discount rates for bonds selling at par).

However, now, let’s presuppose that in the absence of intervention, the true coupon for the offering would have been 3.0%. (If you want a higher assumption, I will accommodate it.) How much was saved by intervention from the Party?

Well, the difference is 0.131% of annual coupon on $39B = $51,090,000/year in avoided coupon payment. What’s the present value of that coupon stream given the I/Y discount rate of 2.869% estimated above? $234 million. That’s a lot, right? Not really – it constitutes “savings” of less than 1% on the issuance (i.e., $234m/$39B). It is 0.006 of present value savings on issuance value.

Now, I am to understand that the Party is exposing the larger credibility of debt issuance itself to the advantage of less than 1% of present value savings, in an environment where the Party must recognize that supply itself limits its ability to control rate movements of larger scale (and financial impact) over longer time periods?

If the gain was enjoyed privately, I might buy it – but unless I am missing something, it constitutes a public “savings.” Further, however, it must be offset by the costs of executing the markdown in futures and other capital markets (unless the Party is so adept, that it is able to reverse all its futures positions to execute the smackdown in a manner that avoids any cost of the smackdown).

I’m out of time for now, but I utterly invite comment.
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#8 Bungster

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:02 PM

Visa did OK but ... 8 losses / 12

LSI Corp. Q2 loss 9c vs 2c year ago
Varian Medical Q3 net income 68c vs 58c
Lincoln Financial Q2 net loss 62c vs earns 48c
Symantec Q1 net income 9c vs 20c
Visa Q3 Class A net income 97c vs 51
Royal Caribbean sinks on loss, outlook
Brookfield Homes Q2 loss 12c vs 33c year ago
Aflac Q2 net income 67c vs $1
Flextronics International swings to a loss
Tesoro Q2 loss 33c vs 3c EPS year ago
Hartford Q2 loss 6c vs $1.73 EPS year ago
Lam Research Q4 loss 70c vs 57c EPS year ago


So the only one we'll hear about will be VISA...next :D
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#9 Jorma

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:10 PM

Sham what?

NY: NBC the parent company of market channel 'CNBC' announced today the addition of Vince Shlomi to their team of economic and market experts. Asked today about the recent stock market performance all he could say was wow.



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#10 jickiss

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:16 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

first of all, here is the
auy Yamana Chart......it is sitting on support. Buy it. Target is $18.

da Sheeple are out of their miners, da Boyz are long.

wait, but not for long.

Attached Thumbnails

  • 07_29_2009__auy__on__support.png

"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#11 DrStool

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:20 PM

The Juggernaut Wobbles – Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Wednesday, July 29, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit We got more vague hints today that maybe this bull move isn’t the juggernaut that it appeared to be just a few days ago. True, maybe this is just a pause that refreshes, but a few ominous little cracks are appearing in the façade. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#12 jickiss

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:24 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

In the More information for the Suckers category,

Why work when you can merely BILL?

read about the sleazy underbelly of Medicine in the USA.

"duhh, Mr. Prosecutor, it must have been my Billing girl clicking too many times on the Billum Key."

http://finance.yahoo...s...ml?x=0&.v=2
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#13 briarberrys

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:51 PM

Illinois downgraded by Fitch Ratings

NEW YORK (Marketwatch) -- Fitch Ratings downgraded the state of Illinois' general obligation bond rating on Wednesday to A, down two notches from AA-minus. anal cysts cited the failure of the state to enact a budget that addresses its spending needs and structural deficit

#14 Bungster

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:51 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

first of all, here is the
auy Yamana Chart......it is sitting on support. Buy it. Target is $18.

da Sheeple are out of their miners, da Boyz are long.

wait, but not for long.


Jickiss,

I see support/resistance lines at 7.5, 8, 9.5, and 11. One might want to initiate a position around $8 - butt I'd keep one eye peeled on the dollar chart - it's doing higher these dayz.... :) Acres of diamonds my friend...
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#15 Jorma

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Posted 29 July 2009 - 05:58 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

In the More information for the Suckers category,

Why work when you can merely BILL?

read about the sleazy underbelly of Medicine in the USA.

"duhh, Mr. Prosecutor, it must have been my Billing girl clicking too many times on the Billum Key."

http://finance.yahoo...s...ml?x=0&.v=2


Here is a story which is a little more subtle and shows how things work in subtle ways. The story does not say much about his decision to reallocate the portfolios asset allocation strongly towards stocks. If he got that done before the crash I don't know.

http://www.nytimes.c...ml?ref=politics

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog

 

The Treasury

could burn down

We jammin still

Full Extreme   Ultimate Rejects






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