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#61 Jorma

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 05:47 PM

Those are the type of charts that I have been looking at. Futures continuation charts for the 30 and 10 year. Pretty bearish for the time being . . .



I've never actually seen one because the January 2000 contract began using a 6% rate as 100 instead of 8% so the price jumped that month in a quantum leap. Somebody went to the trouble of equalizing it. Note this is the entire history of the bond futures contract. The real beginning of exchange traded financial derivatives. Later came the stock index futures and stock options.

Ultra long term isn't of much use for trading.

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#62 briarberrys

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 06:47 PM

Has anyone got any insights into earnings ? I thought this was interesting...

Operating income for companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far has been almost 29 percent lower than last year, more than 80 percent lower than 2007, according to Standard and Poors.

Former United States Secretary of Labor Robert Reich had a very interesting blog post on Thursday about this very topic. Here are some of the key points,

“What’s pushing the stock market upward? Mainly, unexpectedly positive second-quarter corporate profits. But those profits aren’t being powered by consumers who have suddenly found themselves with a lot more money in their pockets. The profits are coming from dramatic cost-cutting — including, most notably, payroll cuts. If a firm cuts its costs enough, it can show a profit even if its sales are still in the basement.

The problem here is twofold. First, such profits can’t be maintained. There’s a limit to how much can be cut without a business eventually disappearing — becoming, in effect, a balance sheet in space. Secondly, when businesses slash payrolls to show profits, consumers end up with even less money in their pockets to buy the things businesses produce. Even if they hold on to their jobs, they’re likely to fear that they won’t have the jobs for long, which causes them to retreat even further from the malls…Operating income for companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far has been almost 29 percent lower than last year, more than 80 percent lower than 2007, according to Standard and Poors. Ouch…

Keep your eye on the real economy, where unemployment and underemployment keep rising. It’s not as much fun as cheering and investing right now, but it’s far safer.”–Robert Reich.


http://robertreich.b...ur-wallets.html

#63 cwd

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 06:50 PM

As Noland knows the Fed has no alternative but ease.

I do appreciate that the Bernanke Fed has spent considerable time contemplating how to remove the past year’s unprecedented monetization. In a normal environment it would matter. But extraordinary circumstances would seem to completely rule out the possibility of Federal Reserve tightening. The risk of bursting the government finance Bubble is too great - and will become only greater. With Treasury, agency and GSE MBS now accounting for the vast majority of system Credit creation, economic and Credit system “recovery” would be stopped dead in its tracks by a surprising jump in market yields. The Fed has, once again, delegated itself to the role of Bubble enabler.

http://www.prudentbe...ew?art_id=10253
===============

I'm still watching the missing deficit. The official target for fiscal 09 is still $1.84T. I don't know if the source of that forecast is the CBO or the White House but that number was almost the same in Jan. before the new administration. It just passed $1T two weeks ago and every news story said it would be $2T. It looks like after this weeks auctions $120billion has been added to tha $1Tt. There is no way the Treasury is going to come to the market for $700 billion in the remaining 8 weeks of the fiscal year.

With tax receipts still cratering why the real number is lagging the estimate is a mystery. It must be on the expenditure side and while the Stimulus has been very slow to be spent, 10% the last I heard, that can't account for all of it. I am starting to expect a sudden recognition that the deficit will fall significantly below forecast and although the number will still be absurd it could be at minimum supportive of the Treasury and stock markets if not the basis for a rally.

As I said the deficit projection when Bush was still in was about the same. From 02 through 07 however the White House at the beginning of each fiscal year would quietly put out a high number and then when it ended up lower they would tout it like mad. A classic dog and pony show which never failed to thrill the audience.




More on the same subject by Dr Frank Shostak, the professor Nolan studied under in Australia. B)
Shostak

#64 briarberrys

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 07:02 PM

Is China going to be the next bubble ???

Is the economic stimulus too much of a good thing?
From The Economist print edition

In the year to June fixed investment surged by 35%, car sales rose by 48%, and purchases of homes by more than 80%. After falling last year, home prices are now rising briskly in some big cities, and share prices have soared by 80% from their November low. Domestic spending has been spurred partly by the government’s stimulus package, but probably even more important was the scrapping of restrictions on bank lending late last year. In June new lending was more than four times larger than a year earlier (chart 2). Economist


Posted Image

And in Mauldin

"There is no better example of this speculative activity than what is being seen in the copper market. It is easy for global merchants, hedge funds etc to ship cathode into China and warehouse it outside the reporting system, so fuelling investors' sentiments that copper demand in China is soaring and at the same time draining copper from the rest of the market.

"It is not so much industry which is doing this buying in China, but individuals, financial institutions and even small companies divorced from the copper industry who are buying and holding the metal because copper is a store of value and prices will go up is the common response. We updated our numbers for the first half of this year. They are truly staggering. Over 1 million tonnes of cathode is sitting in China mostly outside the reporting system as a punt on rising prices." Mauldin


Money mop not working...

China - Failed Debt Sales

The central bank is using bill sales to drain cash from the financial system and push up money-market rates, countering record growth in money supply that threatens to create bubbles in stocks and property.

The finance ministry didn’t meet its target in a debt sale today, the third failure in two weeks. Demand for debt is cooling after new share sales resumed this month and as investors favor assets that benefit most from the recovery. Bloomberg



#65 briarberrys

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 07:17 PM

The headline spin made both Caterpillar & Intel Q3 outlook sound rosey but read what the firms actually said...


During a conference call with investors to discuss its results, Caterpillar warned that its third quarter would be "very tough" on sales and said it was conceivable that it would lose money in that period.

Caterpillar said worldwide sales of its machines were down 47 percent in the three months ended June 30, compared with a decline of 43 percent in the three months ended May 31 and a decline of 39 percent in the three months that ended April 30. (getting worse in other words)

...
Intel executives acknowledged that the enterprise (business) computing market remains weak. In fact, "in terms of enterprise, we are not planning for a big refresh this year," said Paul Otellini, Intel's CEO.

...
UPS, the world’s largest package-delivery company, reported a second-quarter drop of 17 percent in sales to $10.8 billion, its biggest quarterly decline since the company went public in 1999. Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said UPS doesn’t “have any confidence” in a near-term pickup in demand.


www.bloomberg.com


Standard and Poors were recently estimating that SPX Q3 GAAP earnings will be negative - twelve-month
trailing
http://www.decisionp...AC/SWENLIN.html

#66 Charmin

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 07:34 PM

The headline spin made both Caterpillar & Intel Q3 outlook sound rosey but read what the firms actually said...


anything better than zero on paper is worth "better than expected" hype. BUT I guess it all matters who is driving the market - it appears that the Primary dealers are as reported in the Fed report.

Feel the warm hand of the fed on that bottom
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#67 quanta

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 07:38 PM

Interesting Article on Managing Leveraged ETF's

You could also try something like only rebalancing when the (IYF price / initial IYF price / SKF price) ratio changes by a certain threshold percentage since the last rebalance. With a 10% threshold, this method only required 20 new trades since the SKF inception in February 2007. Below we see the results of an initial $10000 position which such sporadic end-of-day rebalancing, including fees. There will also be bid/ask slippage, but you get the idea.


threshold_rebalance.JPG
Don't look too close...
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In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
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#68 jickiss

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 08:16 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and,

for a long time your jickiss has wanted to visit "The Lost World" which was the story by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, but is, of course, a real mountain in Venezuela.

Click and read about a trip to the Lost World, but, come to thimk about, we have been trading in a Lost World for quite a while, so why bother to go see the real McCoy?

http://travel.latime...ela26-2009jul26
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#69 Jetlag

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 08:51 PM

"Sarkozy, 54, was taken by helicopter to the Val-de-Grace military hospital in Paris, where he stayed overnight after feeling unwell following an “intense, 45-minute physical exercise,” his office said in a statement yesterday."

http://www.bloomberg...id=aD_Mf_QHcQ7s

It worked!

Posted Image
http://www.france24....t-ruling-france

:lol:

#70 Jetlag

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 08:57 PM

"The highest inflation-adjusted yields in 15 years are helping provide the Treasury with record demand at auctions as the U.S. prepares to sell $115 billion of notes this week. "

http://www.bloomberg...id=asvejtieUyRc

:lol: Twisted perspective

#71 DrStool

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 09:10 PM

Bullish and Bullisher – Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Sunday, July 26, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Cycle based stock screening data was mixed, with a slight tilt to the plus side on Friday. The most important change was that 6 month cycle status now has a majority on the buy side, confirmation of an up phase in that cycle. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

To discuss this, or any issues pertaining to the economy and the financial markets, visit our forums.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#72 Plantagenet

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 10:03 PM

"Sarkozy, 54, was taken by helicopter to the Val-de-Grace military hospital in Paris, where he stayed overnight after feeling unwell following an “intense, 45-minute physical exercise,” his office said in a statement yesterday."


His mistress is in stable condition.
Facinus quos inquinat aequat: crime levels all whom it defiles.

#73 quanta

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 10:51 PM

I am trying to identify, craft, or find some sort of objective indicator that in essence would reflect where/when a fractal would likely either compress or expand over that of a normal fractal. In other words, it would indicate whether a cycle would be longer or shorter than the typical periodicity. Or yet in other words, whether, like now, low probabilty events are happening more frequently that a period whe a normal distribution of probabilty events happen. (12 up days in a row in the Nasdaq, or an abnormal run of days with SPU lows set before the daily high is set, for example.) (Another example would be an indicator that correlates to times when prices are more likely to remain either above or below a Bollinger band for an extended period of time. Yewt another example would have the indicator correlate to those times when certain indicators will remain overbought or Dover Sole longer than normal.)

At this time I know of no objective indicator and have been depending on my observation of intraday market action to see if there is either less or more selling pressure than usual. It seems to me that what drives the market is not buying, but either the absence of selling or in less frequent situations the overwhelming selling. The market seems to generally go up absent active selling (for instance the saying to not short a dull market is one example of the common wisdom).

It is hard to clearly articulate my concept, but I would appreciate any thoughts whatsoever on this issue. Does anyone know of such an indicator? Does anyone have any idea what variables may or should go into such an indicator?

The various fractal mathematics books that I have do not seem to help.

What prompted this was all the talk about "gravity" intraday on Friday. Is there some sort of indicator to measure "gravity" in the stock market?

Thnx.


Have you looked at ARIMA models?
Don't look too close...
The current Weatha
In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
We're all frinkin' doomed The Mogambo Guru
In the long run, we're all dead John Maynard Keynes
If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal Emma Goldman
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana G. Marx

#74 phatbubble

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 10:52 PM

Twould be strange, but imaginable, that if in 2010 the greatest recession/depression since the 30s was accompanied by stock prices preposterously off the lows set earlier this year.

Imagine if JP Morgan hisself could have dropped a little digital bomb into the futures pit whenever it suited.

Taint granddaddy's market no more.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#75 psyche doctor

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Posted 26 July 2009 - 11:25 PM

For any of you late-night lurkers, I have posted some interesting charts of AAPL over on IDS.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving





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