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#16 Bungster

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 06:20 PM

Black boxes programmed for mean reversion going bust? :unsure:
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#17 sandy beach

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 06:28 PM

Spoke to one of my friends yesterday, he's been mentioned here before, him and his wife have both received pay chops and his son didn't get his $12k grant at USC this year. Money is getting quite tight for him now.

His employer just chopped their entire India office/sweatshop so my bud no longer has 5+ people reporting to him. He's doing their work now in addition to other stuff. If his firm goes under his finances will implode quickly.

Financial distress in California is growing and spreading, though maybe not in southern ca yet.


July 20th - and still no budget agreement in CA to close the $24 billion shortfall in our ~$100 billion budget. The state is getting very near default. (Rumor is now Oakland, CA, will go into default soon). Now a possible strike by CA state workers:

5:04 PM Eastern - July 20, 2009
California state workers will vote to strike; protest Governor Schwarzenegger
By Kate Thomas

As the governor and legislators continue to battle over the budget in California, leaders of SEIU Local 1000 have issued a strike authorization vote to the union's 95,000 members beginning today, July 20. SEIU Local 1000 President Yvonne Walker sent a letter to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last week , declaring the union "will fight" his latest proposal to pile on a fourth furloughed work day for more than 230,000 state workers.

No end in sight: The Governor must've decided he was on a roll, because just days after issuing the latest pay cut threat, he ordered state department heads to eliminate 2,000 s jobs on top of the 5,000 positions he wants to cut as part of his budget solution. "Governor, we've sacrificed. And we've now reached our limit," said Walker.




http://www.seiu.org/...warzenegger.php

#18 Bungster

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 06:28 PM

TXN profit drops 56% but beats estimates! :lol:

http://tinyurl.com/l58h6x
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#19 DrStool

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 06:46 PM

Just fyi- the board automatically shortens long urls. No need for the extra step of using tinyurl.com. Just paste the url and the board will handle it.

Comme ca-

http://finance.yahoo...u...ml?x=0&.v=3

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#20 The End

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 06:54 PM

Does any stoolie have an answer to the question; How long does it take you to get your money back from an investment in a CD where the bank gets taken over by the FDIC?

Tanks
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#21 snorkels4

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:01 PM

why is the VIX increasing as SPX rises?

that's already been answered as it relates to last weeks action: VIX... today however, it looks like (from eyeballing the quote screen), that IV is increasing as a result of the High OTM call volume today (and increasing premium for otm calls) in SPX Aug options. (for example, about 30% of the open intrest in Aug 1000 calls were traded today). FWIW.

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=108834

true/not true

#22 Jetlag

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:02 PM

My 2 cts.
Then come the earnings and economic "surprises", which I suspect will be the trigger for putting the Fear of God into under-invested managers.


:lol:

"I shall smite your underperforming ass, saith He."

#23 Jetlag

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:07 PM

why is the VIX increasing as SPX rises?

that's already been answered as it relates to last weeks action: VIX... today however, it looks like (from eyeballing the quote screen), that IV is increasing as a result of the High OTM call volume today (and increasing premium for otm calls) in SPX Aug options. (for example, about 30% of the open intrest in Aug 1000 calls were traded today). FWIW.


Shorts scrambling to hedge their positions?

#24 Jetlag

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:18 PM

The Inspector General says 23Trillion
The treasury says 2 trillion. 21 Trillion
difference. is that a lot?


I have long been a Faber fan, but when he recently insisted that it was 100% likely that the U.S. would suffer Zimbabwe hyperinflation, he lost a lot of credit with me.


Just keep the change

Posted Image

#25 Jimi

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:20 PM

My 2 cts.

Risk assets continue to deliver. There is only one trade in town, and that's long or short the global reflation theme. Longs are winning for now. Today, EEM broke to a new high for the move, following the Naz, EM debt, and other assets of late.

Dow comes next, then S&P, then you name it... all else will follow to new highs for the move as financial assets recover. Then come the earnings and economic "surprises", which I suspect will be the trigger for putting the Fear of God into under-invested managers. Then, after that, it will be a good time to take some dough off the table. But for the moment, I still see things aligned to the upside.

Still long BVN and PCU

My buddy at Morgan Stanley said over the weekend that their global risk demand index - which measures global appetite for all risk assets - is breaking out to new highs, simply confirming what you say.

I don't like it.
I don't understand it.

But I don't matter....
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#26 quanta

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:24 PM

Completely OT

Just some music, hope ya'll like it...

Frank Foster and The Loud Minority


Don't look too close...
The current Weatha
In mathematics you don't understand things. You just get used to them. Johann von Neumann
We're all frinkin' doomed The Mogambo Guru
In the long run, we're all dead John Maynard Keynes
If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal Emma Goldman
Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana G. Marx

#27 Jimi

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:27 PM

In reference to my Faber thing above, I really have to say that if in 2006, you were to have told the Weirmarians that the Fed would expand its balance sheet by $XX trillion dollars, and that it would begin direct purchase of Treasurys, and that the deficit would balloon to $1.5 trillion (or whatever it is now) and all the rest of the past 18 months, and then asked:

"Under this scenario, where do you think the dollar index will trade, gold will trade, and U.S. 10-year interest rates will be?"

They'd have had a cow, and said, something like, "Dollar index at 40, Gold north of $2,000/oz, and double digit 10-year rates."

Which would have been reasonable, arguably, ceteris paribus.

Except, this ain't ceteris paribus... which I think is creating blindspots for Faber.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#28 DrStool

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:30 PM

Grinding Gears- Professional Edition


by Lee Adler, Monday, July 20, 2009, in Professional Edition, Today's Markets | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit This rally looks pretty good on the surface, buy when you tear the veneer off and look at the inner workings, it’s pretty clear that not all gears are meshing. As the engine is spinning uphill it is losing momentum. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#29 MrHanky

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:38 PM

Does any stoolie have an answer to the question; How long does it take you to get your money back from an investment in a CD where the bank gets taken over by the FDIC?

Tanks

Just a few days,at least that's what they claim.

Nothing


#30 mdporter

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 07:39 PM

As the governor and legislators continue to battle over the budget in California, leaders of SEIU Local 1000 have issued a strike authorization vote to the union's 95,000 members beginning today, July 20. SEIU Local 1000 President Yvonne Walker sent a letter to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last week , declaring the union "will fight" his latest proposal to pile on a fourth furloughed work day for more than 230,000 state workers.


Bring it on union boyz. My anti-strike megaphone is ready for you.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat





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