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#31 Charmin

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 10:39 PM

So, it's all up to IBM tomorrow huh
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#32 Charmin

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 10:44 PM

Is there a bad tick for the Q's? I got 37.01 close but price looks higher on the chart.
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#33 Charmin

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 10:56 PM

"Google Doesn't Get the Global Economy
July 16th, 2009

After reporting earnings, Google‚€™s stock is down in the post-market, while IBM‚€™s is up. Google just doesn‚€™t get the global economy like IBM does.

Note to Google: the global economy is about running a John Deere combine through your programming staff, slaughtering your expensive American workers, and replacing them with cheap Indians. Don‚€™t you get it? That‚€™s the whole purpose of the global economy. In short, you must learn to be evil. I suggest taking evil lessons from IBM, and one day, you too can have fabulous, fabulous profits from the ‚€œExport The American Economy‚€Ě trade. " http://www.trivisonno.com/

:o

"IBM To North American Employees: To Keep Your Job, Move To India"
http://www.businessi...ve-to-india-ibm
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#34 psyche doctor

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 10:59 PM

I've been running this board for more than 8 years and have watched a number of people trade successfully using TA, in some cases for the entire time. It is not an easy discipline to master. Neither is playing the violin or composing music. But that does not mean it can't be done, and there are some who become virtuosos. The idea that you can build a simple rudimentary mechanized system that fails, and that that represents TA, is just idiocy. Rationalize is clueless about TA, so he's going to get a time out. Maybe he'll take the time to actually learn something, rather than just bloviating.



I never much cared for mechanical trading systems. My brother insists that I use my knowledge to help him create an advanced mechanical trading system. He is very good with writing code, software etc. Actually, over the years, he has done alot to help develop the Linux operating system. He now works for himself as a consultant for big companies but has little knowledge when it comes to TA or trading. I often tell him that I have little interest in developing a mechanical trading system. I can tell by his responses that he doesn't understand. Chart reading is definitely an art and does take years to develop. You just can't plot a chart and throw a simple macd on it and wait for the crosses etc. I look at the markets using many techniques, such as regression. I also incorporate a lot of elliot wave which is really an art and extremely subjective, but I have seen a few people master it and be really successful traders. Also, being a great chartist does not always mean that someone will be a great trader. For years I have been able to read a chart with clarity, but only in the past 3 years or so have I been able to translate that into successful trading. In the right hands, TA definitely works. They can take their mechanical trading systems and toss em, if you ask me.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#35 psyche doctor

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 11:12 PM

** Regular vanilla moving average trend following TA is not working in the backtests.

All I can say is that the inherent lag in MAs / EMAs means that you always miss the move.

And on a shorter timeframe, you catch the move, then whipsaw out too early.

So, no win either way.

The danger is that EMAs especially, or SMAs in spaghetti mode look freeking great on a trending chart.

The reality of trading with them mechanically -- entering every time the average say, and exiting every time they say -- is an average loss.

Now, if they are not being used mechanically, the WTF are they for?

How is the trading decision being made?

The line between analysis and gambling is crossed at that point IMO.



I use moving averages most often as a form of regression, depending on the time frame and period of the moving average. If price is "extended" away from the average, I start looking for other clues that price may reverse and revert back to that average. It is simple but also kind of hard to explain in words, but it can be effective. If you ask me, using them mechanically is a waste of time and money. Try using them in other ways; there are so many ways to skin a cat.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#36 Charmin

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 11:16 PM

It's 1991 all over again, Cramer said during Thursday's Mad Money :lol:
and

"Nouriel Roubini, the economist whose dire forecasts earned him the nickname "Doctor Doom," said after markets closed Thursday that earlier reports claiming he sees an end to the recession this year were "taken out of context."

Hype and Rumor for a LiquidNation
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#37 No Einstein

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 11:36 PM

She might think less crazy of you if you would put some clothes on first! :lol:

LOL.. but thats the only for me to see my secret indicator...tells me if the market is going up....or down :rolleyes:
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#38 shorty

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 11:40 PM

IBM's net tangible asset value per common share is ______________ .

Look it up.

It ain't purty.

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#39 howard in nyc

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Posted 17 July 2009 - 12:10 AM

IBM's net tangible asset value per common share is ______________ .

Look it up.

It ain't purty.

that includes goodwill. $18 billion in goodwill. so they got that going for them.
"He who sells what isn't his'n,
Must buy it back or go to pris'n."

#40 Bungster

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Posted 17 July 2009 - 01:46 AM

Don't look now - butt futures are leaking a little earl.... :unsure:
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
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#41 Jimbo

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Posted 17 July 2009 - 03:44 AM

THE GREAT TA DEBATE

I never much cared for mechanical trading systems. My brother insists that I use my knowledge to help him create an advanced mechanical trading system. He is very good with writing code, software etc. Actually, over the years, he has done alot to help develop the Linux operating system. He now works for himself as a consultant for big companies but has little knowledge when it comes to TA or trading. I often tell him that I have little interest in developing a mechanical trading system. I can tell by his responses that he doesn't understand. Chart reading is definitely an art and does take years to develop. You just can't plot a chart and throw a simple macd on it and wait for the crosses etc. I look at the markets using many techniques, such as regression. I also incorporate a lot of elliot wave which is really an art and extremely subjective, but I have seen a few people master it and be really successful traders. Also, being a great chartist does not always mean that someone will be a great trader. For years I have been able to read a chart with clarity, but only in the past 3 years or so have I been able to translate that into successful trading. In the right hands, TA definitely works. They can take their mechanical trading systems and toss em, if you ask me.


The TA relevance debate will never end - but I think some like K wave are very good at it.

His sugar call was brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!

And you need to be very good to make money.

The rest say the other 95% who arnt good at TA dont make any money.

TA needs to be considered as an element in the overall "context field" of the market

eg along side other elements such as psycologicals, news, fed, interest rates, debt levels, prices etc etc .

It just increases the probability of being right - it doent make you right.

It seems that TA mechanical trading systems are too crude to consistently make money without the secret recipe that lies within the expert TA traders head.

Of course that secret recipe it secret - for obvious reasons.
timoleon





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