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Will the bulls go for 3/3?


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#31 Rationalize

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 11:29 PM

...
That's the advantage of TA and other types of analysis that win more often than they lose-- a big advantage over insider info. TA is far more consistent in its outcome. Inside info givers can turn against you or me or Trader Joe or anyone in a minute. They can start giving the opposite of the correct info-- in order to reel in the fish that they have caught. They seduce you with initially correct info, and then later when you have been lulled into a sense of false security-- boom--they start giving you "info" that will seduce you into taking the opposite side of their own winning trades.

Ah .. most of the standard TA I have back tested actually net net loses most of the time.

Yes, some great trades, butt, as said net net, the small losers reduce the big winners to below zero :ph34r:

And if you're scapling, then the reverse. Small winners get totally F'd in the A by the bigger losers. Worse with stops. :ph34r:

[Blah blah blah, not using the right timeframe blah blah cycles blah. OK. I get it.]
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#32 Jorma

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 11:36 PM

Posted Image

Another interesting picture. :rolleyes:





From IDS today, this chart. I got to wondering about the dif between to $6+trillion outstanding Treasuries and the well reported $10+ trillion total debt. I sort of figured it was SS and other intergovernmental IOU's and that is the source of the difference. You have to hand it to Greenspan and the politicians to pull this one off. When the annual deficit is announced it includes the SS surplus but doesn't count the IOU's. The next day the IOU's get included in the total debt.

I still don't get that bar for July saying near $700 billion is expiring this month. How can that be right? Doc?

One other thing. If Greenspan and the pols would have stipulated that the SS surplus was to be used to purchase ordinary run Treasury securities, fungible notes and bonds, then this whole "SS is a Ponzi scheme" meme would look a bit different. The intergovernmental IOU"s which Treasury gives SS can be spun as not actual "full faith and credit of the United States" constitutionally ordained liabilities. Instead they can be treated, rhetorically, as fake liabilities. These IOU's have in fact been declared by Federal courts (I cannot site the cases) as actually being absolute liabilities of the Treasury of the US, but I'm sure when push comes to shove this Supreme Court will say not so.

It will be nice for the Treasury to dump 40% of it's liabilities but that still does leave the other 6 trillion soon 7 then 8 trillion.

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#33 Jimi

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 11:40 PM

keeping it simple: SPX broke thru a weekly downtrend line in June (grey circle) and then rode it down four weeks,
unless this market turns dow pronto the next target is the green circle and higher downtrend line

after that, new highs in our lifetimes... :D

your mileage may vary, lets see

Nice chart - even a simpleton like me can understand it.

Trading it, of course, is an entirely different proposition....

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#34 Jorma

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 11:49 PM

I am noticing we are seeing yet again how useless inside information can be. Buffet has reportedly said "With enough inside info and a million dollars, you can go broke in a year."

Who woulda thunk that less than 2 weeks after TJ posted his last post on the board and gave us his inside info from his Pig Man connections-- a market trading range for the rest of the year of 7500-8800 Sow-- that the market would be less than 200 points below the very top number of that range? As we go forward we find out whether TJ's Pig Men connections were literally lying about this, or whether they were telling the truth in a way intended to deceive. Even if that info was true, it was certainly the most outright deceptive piece of info to a trader that an insider would know at that point in time. I hope TJ & his supposed 700-mil-a-year-earning boss are OK in this recent market action.

That's the advantage of TA and other types of analysis that win more often than they lose-- a big advantage over insider info. TA is far more consistent in its outcome. Inside info givers can turn against you or me or Trader Joe or anyone in a minute. They can start giving the opposite of the correct info-- in order to reel in the fish that they have caught. They seduce you with initially correct info, and then later when you have been lulled into a sense of false security-- boom--they start giving you "info" that will seduce you into taking the opposite side of their own winning trades.



I've cited his comment and it did fit with other such supposed insider things floating about. I would never bet the ranch on them because I don't believe anyone really knows. Never mind if such info is really disinformation and why in the hell would anyone be trying to spin the few poor souls on this board anyway?

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#35 Charmin

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 11:49 PM

Today did a wide price bar like May 29 on the spy
http://www.StockShar..._1247716166.png
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#36 capitall

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 12:55 AM

Ah .. most of the standard TA I have back tested actually net net loses most of the time.

Yes, some great trades, butt, as said net net, the small losers reduce the big winners to below zero :ph34r:

And if you're scapling, then the reverse. Small winners get totally F'd in the A by the bigger losers. Worse with stops. :ph34r:

[Blah blah blah, not using the right timeframe blah blah cycles blah. OK. I get it.]


I think U may be confusing me with Doc. I myself do not believe that all TA works if U use the right time frame. My hat is off to U and to anyone else who takes the time and trouble to test these methods. Cassie's system was not standard TA, and it seemed to work most of the time and come out with net profits. I think it is likely that very few TA methods net more gain than loss. Objective research and backtesting is where it's at. Good for you, Rationalize!

#37 shorty

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Posted 16 July 2009 - 04:42 AM

CONsider the source:

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