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Will the bulls go for 3/3?


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#1 anotherone

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 04:31 PM

Do ya think the Japanese people pushers have crammed enough sheeple into the tram cars or is there one more up day ahead?
"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#2 anotherone

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 04:33 PM

Oops. lost count. Was looking at bases on the ID charts rather than days. That should be 4/4, though Tuesday was kind of Neutral.
"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#3 DrStool

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 04:46 PM

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by Lee Adler, Wednesday, July 15, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Mortgage applications rose last week, but the devil is in the details. Only refis increased in response to lower rates. Purchase apps fell sharply again, with the index still refusing to break a 19 month downtrend line. Meanwhile, the Treasury market has had another vicious turn. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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#4 mdporter

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 04:48 PM

SRS clubbed for -7% today. Perhaps we revisit the $16 and change low.

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#5 Scully

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:03 PM

According to the funny mentals, fair value for the S&P 500 is about 550 to match the level of dividends currently being issued against the historic levels.

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#6 Scully

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:05 PM

But the fundamentals really do give a funny mental number when comparing the fair value of the S&P500 to earnings. That is because according to the estimates created by Standard and Poor, earnings are about to go negative for the first time in the history of the index. Certainly not bullish information, anyway.

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#7 Brick Stoolhouse

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:08 PM

Oops. lost count. Was looking at bases on the ID charts rather than days. That should be 4/4, though Tuesday was kind of Neutral.

Nope. Tomorrow at this time Chunky Sue Hererra
will be saying "Profit takers came into the market today"
Every day the market goes down they trot that one out.
The scam week damage has already been inflicted.
When the market was trading at 870 a couple of weeks
ago one of the Lost Money guys said that someone
with deep pockets came in and bought 100000 880 Calls
on the S and P. Tip of the cap to that guy. He'll have
the nicest rental at the Hamptons this summer. :rolleyes:
“A million seconds is 11.5 days. A billion seconds is about 32 years. A trillion seconds is 32,000 years."

#8 Scully

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:17 PM

The funny metals approach to the price of gold supposes a global return to the gold standard. If it was based on global M1 the price of gold should be about $1,400/oz, and if it was based on M2 it should be about $7,800/oz. On the chart below, the next resistance line corresponds to about $3,000/oz and a 1980 style blowoff to the top of the channel corresponds to $5,000/oz.

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#9 shorty

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:21 PM

another routine that-time-o'-month scam week option jam bohnar-fest bear-reamin' CONtest
never anything new under the sun
the same dreary sordid machinations, reampeated ad nauseum

Cynical Pontificator of Crock Stocktology

Tiger's Wood, Anthony's Weiner, Barney's Frank, Herman's Cain, Harry's Reid, Elliot's Spitzer
 


#10 Scully

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:24 PM

The ratio graph below is based on monthly average prices. A move to the red oval is a SP500/gold ratio of 0.28. If we retest the SPX lows of 666 and post that price on average for a month, this ratio equates to a gold price of about $2,400/oz. On the other hand, if gold only gets to the M1 fundamental price of $1,400/oz, then this ratio equates to an S&P 500 value of about 400.

The ultimate price low for the S&P500 depends on the maximum deflation point; and the price high for gold depends on the maximum inflation point. Both depend on how much the Fed prints. But the ratio graph should look the same regardless.

I am currently long GLD and SLV, and short SPY. My price target for gold is a minimum of $1,400, and for SPY it is a retest of the lows already seen. Gold could go higher (inflationary outcome) and SPY could go lower (deflationary outcome) but that is harder to target.

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#11 Scully

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:34 PM

The price of gold relative to oil reached an extreme back in February, but it has since corrected to the middle of the channel which is often a reversal point. If we assume oil stays about where it is ($70) which is reasonable from a consumption/production viewpoint, then this suggests we are at a reasonable point for gold to resume climbing.

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#12 Scully

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:38 PM

If you are long-term bullish on gold, then you should be more bullish on silver, which is relatively low compared to gold.

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#13 Bungster

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:42 PM

It pains me to show these next two charts...I hope I'm wrong....I really do....bearz :ph34r:

namo.png

nymo_1yr.png
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#14 byhiselo

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 05:59 PM

don't think its safe for the bears until the traditional sept/oct panic or SPX close under 900, whichever comes first

lots of bear tragedy on boards this week...

place your bets...something for both bears and bulls...from sentimentrader.com:

There have only been six other days since 2002 that the STEM.MR Model has dropped under 10%. Those were:

* 01/03/03 (the market dropped soon afterward)

* 12/18/03 (a kickoff to a major thrust higher)

* 10/27/04 (a kickoff to a major thrust higher)

* 07/08/05 (the market rallied for another couple of weeks before rolling over)

* 12/26/07 (the market rolled over immediately)

* 01/05/09 (the market rolled over almost immediately)

There wasn't much in-between about these occurrences - either the market rallied strongly without much of a blip over the next couple of weeks at least, or it rolled over within a day or two and suffered pretty hefty losses.

#15 Jimi

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Posted 15 July 2009 - 06:36 PM

Nice perspective, Scully.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian





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