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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 05:04 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – January 31, 2003

Poor Semiconductor Queen AMAT tripped down the stairs in the PreMarket, sending torn thongs and frayed bra straps flying everywhere.

Buddha describes the action:

“The AMAT Whore is once again gang raped in the middle of the crowded village square after having been dressed up in disguise as a sweet 17 year old virgin for the umpteenth time. How many times have we heard from the Crook Conductors that the AMAT train is leaving the station? Every friggin earnings season we get an earful of the same shouting and whistling. This stock is endemic of the deceit and waste that litters the American landscape. I call it the Joe Millionaire Issue. Our favorite current T.V. character brings home his three top bitches to see momma. The selection process is arduous. The whole world is watching and judging. Then the show lays a giant egg. One of the three polished prom queens turns out to be a porn star who works the S&M Bondage circuit and has just come off her most recent San Fernando video, "Hog-Tied". I ask you. What is the difference essentially between the "AMAT" video and "Hog-Tied"? Semi Conductor anal cysts and porn producers? Anyone?”

Most would have expected a massive smoking to the downside. But not in Alice in Repoland. The January Barometer must turn positive by the end of trading or the sheep run the risk of heading for the exits. So Da Boyz get off the Bat Phone from Al Green and immediately started pumping the SMH futures and jamming MMM on the Dow.

That action got the Global Speculators really salivating, so the SOX was bid up heavy during the am. Why is that? Why so much propping and jamming? Why so much attention to stocks? Why the obession with the Supermodels?

Because the stock market is the economy.

Because the SOX is the primary Global Index of Speculation.

Because the entire fate of the U.S. Dollar, the Multilevel Marketing Pyramid, the JPM Derivatives Tower, and trillions of dollars of market capitalization is circuit cabled directly to the fortunes of AMAT.

Nowhere else do you see such maniacal speculation so narrowly focused on one sector.

It’s like the terminal bachelor in Los Angeles, whose sole life purpose is to hook up with a Pamela Anderson look-a-like. No other substitutes accepted. He will end up dead, broke, and impotent before he settles for a girl with less than DD sized breasts, pencil thin arms, and a sheetrock flat stomach.

Time and time again, we see these Superchicks get blown up, only to get bid up in a mad frenzy. Cannot underestimate the madness of the SOX. As Buddha would say, it’s no different than throwing a half eaten corn cob into a pen full of 350 lb. starving hogs.

Just utter the words “bottom” anywhere in the tech sector and you will see the ravenous speculators knashing and thrashing, 10 pigs vying for control of one dirty, half eaten, rotten husk.

Only in the 2000-2003 bear market will you find an environment where a company like AMAT, in a collapsing industry, selling at 5x sales and 50x earnings, announce lowered guidance and stage a miracle rally. As if one of their engineers accidently found that a semi fab robot arm could work as a substitute porno device.

As of yet, no real money has left the market. And the Nasdaq is about 200 points above the October lows. Notice how money left the homebuilders and piled into the “v-shaped recovery” stocks (aka Semismokers).

Notice how a war rally has already been front run, and that’s why no real selling volume has come in. Why sell now when much higher prices are just around the corner?

Note how this pattern of hoping and holding is identical to what was experienced last summer, where the fear gauges were held in check because some wild, hysterical bounce was always right around the corner, and nobody wanted to “miss out” on that being “the bottom”.

No new money is coming into the market either. Joe Sixpack’s 401(k) contributions are offsetting the light amount of redemptions. Just the same pile of leveraged cash rotating from this sector over to that sector, chasing the latest girlfriend of the week.

Today we got 7 hysteria TICKs at +1100 or better on the NYSE 10 minute chart. Just the usual Hog Run typically found at these bear market reversals.

Almost 36 months of lower lows and relentless squeezes, and nothing has changed.

We’ll get our answer on Monday to see if another intermediate low was made, or if this recent congestion is marking the halfway point of the move.

Thanks to Machinehead and Buddha for warning us of the time turn today.

My Dow barometer stocks are IP, DD, AA, and CAT. Today's move wasn't that impressive.

Also, watch JPM and C. Look like doji's today. No rally will start unless these two start moving.

Girlfriend of the Week

Vacations to Hawaii are necessary for maintaing a speculator’s sanity. Where else can you find hippie girls on welfare, dressed half naked, visiting one head shop after another, killing time, accumulating flowers? So much downtime. Totally unaware of the economy, Wall Street, wars, or other worldly events. Nothing to do but ponder and wonder. Check out the armpits and the bees nest hairdo.

Position Summary:

No changes.

We are 56% short, 32% long, 12% cash.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56
WHR at $56
INTU at $49
AMGN at $53
CSCO at $14
ORCL at $12
DELL at $25
SBUX at $23

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28
CFC at $55

Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
HMY at $16

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#2 machinehead

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 05:25 PM

"As if one of their engineers accidently found that a semi fab robot arm could work as a substitute porno device."

Bwa ha ha ha ha!

That'll be the best breakthrough product since left-handed mice.

http://toastytech.co.../billsucks.html
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#3 bubbadropping

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 05:46 PM

If Wednesday highs get taken out on Monday we have an intermediate low otherwise this was just criminal rectal painting by PigMen. One caveat is that my old friend and magician contrarian SmoothShot from ClearStation is now long unless 1320 is taken out on closing basis. This and the ClearStation Simpleton Stoch now turning up on the daily tell me we could get a bit more buying. Who the hell knows? In truth I probably envy the airheaded chick in the photo at this point. What cares does she have? Out shopping for a Rasta Man to do her well tonight. Maybe some good weed to take the edge off negotiating the two traffic lights in downtown Hilo. 'A mat' to her is something you roll out on the lanai and spread your lovely brown legs across to receive your nightly dividend. It ain't no friggin stock.

#4 Mr. Beal

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 05:55 PM

This story was posted earlier. Here it is in the NYT.

http://www.nytimes.c...ogy/31LEGA.html

I heard this rumor yesterday but couldn’t confirm it. This is a significant event in the Bay Area. This was a widely loathed and feared gang with a reputation for sandbagging in the extreme. Truly another grand example of hubris precipiating a deserved demise. Who could have imagined, “We bilked them on the way up and have been bilking them all the way down handling these bankruptcy’s. How could we possibly have predicted in the end they won’t pay our fees?” - Dickheads

#5 Slothrop

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 05:59 PM

"...criminal rectal painting by PigMen..."

Buddhadropping, that's brutal. Funny, but brutal.

#6 Tig 'Ol Bitties

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:01 PM

I hope somebody else took the OSUR I mentioned Tuesday night.

http://www.capitalst...f=7&t=915&st=60

#7 wndysrf

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:04 PM

Remember that guy Thomas Kurlak at TheStreet.com who told everyone to load the boat with Supermodels last October?

Did he recommend selling at the December highs? Nope.

He's still holding:

"Capital-equipment spending always lags the primary semiconductor sales cycle, which has already bottomed and is turning up. The most important trend for equipment stocks is the sales by semiconductor manufacturers. With excess capacity a normal condition for semiconductor makers at cycle bottoms, cutbacks in their orders for new capital equipment will typically last well past the bottom in their chip sales."

"What am I doing about AMAT's news? Nothing. I'm holding AMAT. I expect it to participate in the long-term growth of the consumption of semiconductors, and at today's valuation it should provide a return that will be well above average. The company's orders, sales and earnings will track its top customers with a lag. That being well known, its stock tends to move with the chip stocks."

Hey Good Luck, Kurlak. I'll be buying AMAT when it reaches $4/share. I'll sell it when it reaches today's price of $12.
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#8 morass

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:05 PM

The squeeze on RAmBS must be one for your record book Mark. And on the same day AMAT tells us all how things are starting to stink real bad in the chip bag.

#9 MrHanky

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:17 PM

I'm absolutely exausted...the longer support holds here,the worse it's gonna be when it breaks.I work in the atlanic city casino's,i think I feel more confident taking all my cash and throwing it on black,than putting a dime long in this market.filthy criminals everywhere and they will get what's comin to them.

this week blew out a ton of shorts too...it should not be long till the day of reckoning.

that being said,I'm still up on the week..and no options to worry about.

next week is gonna be just as fun...i can't wait

Nothing


#10 MrHanky

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:26 PM

I just checked and my drcvx and it was down only .03 today(.62%)....damn good considering the action today

bring it on bully

Nothing


#11 longOnUranus

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:36 PM

I can't remember the last time the usual EOM paint party sustained/ accelerated a bounce off an intermediate low. If the party was mixed today with a larger cycle (war related, methinks), then the front-runners might be able to push it up 'till Colon Poowell dumps his load on the Untied NayShits. I'm 100% with Bontchev and other TA guys on this, it's just chop on the high seas as Fantasy Island shrinks in the rear-view mirror.

Not saying I saw it coming, but went to a 50% cash position on a high-ball ask on SPX puts at the close yesterday, which was executed, thankfully. My wife just said she needed the money. She has become my best market timer, no joke. This is the third time she has correctly called a reversal.

I'll letchall know in the future when my wife needs money. 'weekend, y'all.

#12 soup

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 06:57 PM

Mark: do not kid yourself, kurlack's cost on amat is a hell of a lot higher than 12 bucks. How about jumping john joseph? How many " you got to buy these semi cap ex guys " before the cycle turns. Never have I seen such a dislocation as the furor over the "supermodels". Incredible, and yet none of these idiotic morons ( both the fund managers and the sell side shills) are ever held accountable for their past calls!
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#13 soup

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 07:03 PM

The fact of the matter is if biz doubled for these guys (klac,amat) tommorrow the stock prices are still absurd. How long until the word valuation comes back into vogue? As a small biz owner, I only wish some idiot would bid up my stock based on a "good" year. What the hell is a good year? AS fleck sez, and it seems so GD obvious, stocks are nothing more than fractional interests in ongoing biz. Everything at a PRice!
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#14 soup

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 07:06 PM

I may regret it, and I am starting to second guess myself, but I did Not cover my klac short this a.m. Had my finger on ther cover button, but could not pull the trigger given the insane valuation. Oh well, even if it gaps up Monday, I should still be profitable on this postion, and klac has been very, very good to me from the short side.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#15 BigWave

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Posted 31 January 2003 - 07:46 PM

Looks like she left her tits in San Francisco.

Fred Hickey called bullshit on the AMAT upgrade on Wednesday. He listed the capex cuts by the chip makers, and basically, AMAT's puke will probably be followed by KLAC and NVLS. Of course the stocks will probably be bid up, but eventually they'll crack to digits.

Let that f*cking CDWC get away again. That stock is my own albatross.

Great work this week stoolies.

TE, I thought you weren't your usual self last nite. Everybody is entitled to a bad day.

BW





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