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IDS World Markets Fri 27th February 09


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#16 alceringa

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 07:48 AM

I have never used a Fisher Transform (sounds like a Playskool toy).


Fisher was a farmer, (actually an agricultural scientist.) He made major contributions to both genetics and statistics and was one of the most important scientists of the 20the century.


Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher, FRS (17 February 1890 – 29 July 1962) was an English statistician, evolutionary biologist, and geneticist. He was described by Anders Hald as "a genius who almost single-handedly created the foundations for modern statistical science" and Richard Dawkins described him as "the greatest of Darwin's successors".
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill

"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson

#17 unSane

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 08:43 AM

Today is the last day of the quarter.

The extreme lows of the last crash (Nov) had been mitigated when the last quarter ended, so many investors looking at their quarterly statements probably never realized just how much they were down at one point.

This quarter is going to end low. Maybe they will paint the tape to try for a less-terrible-close, but at this point they're fighting traffic.

Next time their clients open those envelopes, there's going to be a wave of selling IMO.

Now is a pretty good time to get short I think.

(That ES short and the FAZ I was holding looking pretty good given the futures... ES at 743 right now, down about 10)

#18 swordfish

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 08:50 AM

Just found couple minutes to check the indices. Its all good. ES.F hit 741.30 the move to 743.50. German DAX is falling, with 3,28% now.

USDJPY and EURJPY falling, jpy geting stronger. there should be a nice gap today and the break of the november's low at S&P500

Yeah OPEN THE HELL GATE:)
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#19 unSane

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 08:53 AM

Fisher transform is awesome.

It replaces stochastics, MACD and RSI for me. It's pretty much the only indicator I use apart from price (duh).

Fisher changing direction with a TL break is a great signal.

I like to stack them up with different periods.

The reason it works is that it transforms the non-gaussian movements of the market into a roughly gaussian distribution.

The market tends to spend most of its time at gaussian extremes and very little of its time moving between them.

The Fisher smooths that out and makes it more gaussian, which makes the signals much easier to read.

It is very similar to the sigma function you use as the input to a neural network so the little brain cells can figure out what's going on.

#20 Jorma

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 08:59 AM

Angry Bear reads the smoke signals from the Citi rescue bunker. Dilute and cramdown and pray are the latest features.

http://angrybear.blo...citi.html#links

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
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#21 swordfish

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:14 AM

Citigroup to Get U.S. Investment as Treasury Plans $25 Billion Stock Swap
http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home

ES.F 740!!!!!!!!!!!
Good morning America!!!! it's gonna be a nice day!
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#22 DrStool

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:20 AM

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#23 DrStool

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:22 AM

http://wallstreetexa...s-update-22709/

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#24 Rationalize

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:23 AM

Fisher transform is awesome.

It replaces stochastics, MACD and RSI for me. It's pretty much the only indicator I use apart from price (duh).

Fisher changing direction with a TL break is a great signal.

I like to stack them up with different periods.

The reason it works is that it transforms the non-gaussian movements of the market into a roughly gaussian distribution.

The market tends to spend most of its time at gaussian extremes and very little of its time moving between them.

The Fisher smooths that out and makes it more gaussian, which makes the signals much easier to read.

It is very similar to the sigma function you use as the input to a neural network so the little brain cells can figure out what's going on.

:) :) :)

I guess you can see from my charts above, that I also like the fisher, & stack them one above the other.

Here’s a couple of serious questions though:

Which chart time interval to choose? A fixed time period, or a number of ticks?

On how many intervals do you see the fisher working best?

I am setup mostly at 133 tick intervals, with the fisher input as 5, 10, 50 & 100 intervals.

I change back to 1m intervals some times also.

Any ideas?
PARTY! NORTH KOREA! SATURDAY NIGHT! BYOF (bring your own food)

#25 DrStool

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:25 AM

spy 3 day cycle projection looks 73.40-72.60 which I guess equates to about 739-731 on the SPX.

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#26 DrStool

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:26 AM

That would be a huge gap which, if not filled within relatively short order, say a day or two, could be a breakaway gap to the downside.

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#27 unSane

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:26 AM

ES futures just dumped about 10 points to 733. Could be a 20 point gap down. Not sure I would fade this one.

(short ES from EOD yesterday!!)

#28 BusKow

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:28 AM

US - GDP (Q4:08) 8:30 AM
US - NAPM-Chicago (Feb, 2009) 9:45 AM
US - Consumer Sentiment (Feb, 2009) 9:55 AM
US - Farm Prices (Feb, 2009) 3:00 PM
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

#29 unSane

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:30 AM

:) :) :)

I guess you can see from my charts above, that I also like the fisher, & stack them one above the other.

Here’s a couple of serious questions though:

Which chart time interval to choose? A fixed time period, or a number of ticks?

On how many intervals do you see the fisher working best?

I am setup mostly at 133 tick intervals, with the fisher input as 5, 10, 50 & 100 intervals.

I change back to 1m intervals some times also.

Any ideas?


I like to use roughtly geometrically increasing periods. So 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and so on.

On the longer timeframes, you can pretty much trade the slope. A double bottom or double top on the Fisher is one of the most reliable signals I know.

I coded a trading system based solely on the Fisher which worked well!

#30 swordfish

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 09:35 AM

US GDP -6,2% (est.-4,9%)

WOW
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