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IDS World Markets Fri 27th February 09


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#1 aussiebear

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Posted 26 February 2009 - 07:38 PM

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

#2 aussiebear

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Posted 26 February 2009 - 07:39 PM

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http://money.cnn.com...s/morning_call/


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http://www.kitco.com


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http://www.kitconet....ase_metals.html

Energy futures

#3 aussiebear

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Posted 26 February 2009 - 07:48 PM

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A plunge on open with bullz & bearz head to head at a very important support level. All Ords -0.6%, Telecomms leading the way down, -3.3% followed by Consumer Staples -2%. There's a couple of greens, Energy +1.5% and Gold +0.6%.

#4 Rationalize

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 12:59 AM

Still not sure I'd be chorting to hard at this point.

Looks like a saggy aSSed up-turn forming. :ph34r:

Short term OR long term -- not sure ...
GMTFO2a.GIF
PARTY! NORTH KOREA! SATURDAY NIGHT! BYOF (bring your own food)

#5 Charmin

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 03:23 AM

SPX closing the month below 768.63? The low back in 2002.

http://www.StockShar..._1235719291.png
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#6 aussiebear

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:05 AM

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Another bouncy day and all we achieved was a flat close. Telecomms remained in the dumps, -3.2%, Healthcare -2.7% and Consumer Staples -2.1%. Energy was top gainer, +2% with Gold next, +1.8%.

Reasonable day for the miners: BHP +0.8% and RIO +2.1%. Golds did ok too: Newcrest +3.3%, Newmont flat and Lihir +0.9%.

A good one for most the oils: Woodside -0.5%, Santos +3.1% and Caltex +2.2%.

Mostly dipping in Asia: China -1.8%, Honkers -0,1%, India -2.1% and Nikkers +1.5%.


Over to UK/Europe:

Footsie

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DAX

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CAC 40

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http://finance.yahoo.com/

#7 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:15 AM

Still not sure I'd be chorting to hard at this point.

Looks like a saggy aSSed up-turn forming. :ph34r:

Short term OR long term -- not sure ...
GMTFO2a.GIF


This is an interesting chart, although I have never used a Fisher Transform (sounds like a Playskool toy). But...

could you run those same indicators using the SPX cash market?

I find that incorporating ES overnight futures into my charts screws them up badly. Partially because of the leverage in futures. And also because when the SPX is closed, the ES futures have absolutely zero basis in reality -- it's mainly just 800,000 people trading against trendlines and their pet indicators, with a touch of reaction to Europe's moves mixed in for good measure. It almost feels like trading against machines sometimes.

But I'd be very curious to see what those indicators look like when run on the pure cash market. TIA
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#8 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:25 AM

Gov't on verge of deal to aid CitiCorpse


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government is on the verge of closing a deal to significantly boost its ownership stake in Citigroup. In return, it will demand changes be made on the troubled banking giant's board and other conditions, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions.

The increased stake in Citigroup Inc. will not require additional money from taxpayers and the bank will still have to undergo a "stress test," such as those that banking regulators started conducting this week on the nation's biggest banks, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a deal hasn't been officially announced.

An announcement is anticipated later Friday.

The government would convert some of its preferred shares in Citigroup to common shares only if the bank can get private investors to do the same, the source said. If that were to happen, the government's stake in Citigroup could jump to 40 percent, from less than 8 percent now, the source said.



So, does the "announcement" that the gov't isn't actually doing this come out at just the right time to spook the shorts, or what? Tell us your plan, oh Forces of Evil. Not that I'm getting paranoid. :ph34r:

I'm just getting tired of the constant manipulative crap from the Ministry of Truth.
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#9 aussiebear

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:35 AM

Japan Recession Deepens as Factory Output Plunges

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s manufacturers cut production by a record 10 percent in January and household spending plunged, adding to evidence that the economy in its worst recession in 60 years.

The month-on-month decline in factory output exceeded December’s record decline of 9.8 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Household spending fell 5.9 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in more than two years.

#10 aussiebear

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:44 AM

U.K. Bankers See Limits on Cash Bonuses in a Year

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. bankers expect the cash part of their bonuses will be restricted within the year, after the government bailed out the industry with taxpayers’ money, according to an online survey.

More than 60 percent of U.K. bankers say their bonuses will change, with limits on cash and payments in stock the most likely measures to be introduced, EfinancialCareers.com said in a report today. A third of bankers expect cash bonuses will be capped and more of their pay will be made in deferred stock. Seven out of ten bankers with six to ten years’ experience said they might move overseas to escape cash limits.

I suspect most western countries will be expecting bonuses in the financial sector to be capped in the not-so-distant future. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.

----------------------

Five Million Britons May Face Negative Equity in 2009

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. housing-market slump may push more than 40 percent of British mortgage holders by the end of this year into negative equity, where their loans exceed the value of their homes, GfK NOP said.

A total of five million people will be affected by the end of 2009, GfK said in a statement today, citing a survey of 60,000 people. About 3.8 million already have loans worth more or close to the value of their homes. There are 11.7 million mortgages in the U.K., according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower said this week Britain’s recession will probably deepen “significantly” and predicted more than 3 million people will be unemployed by the end of the year. House prices fell the most in at least 18 years this month, Nationwide Building Society said yesterday.

#11 swordfish

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:45 AM

Dont have time today to follow the market:(

EURUSD is 1.2641
ES.F hit overnight 748

Will stay short, since Tuesday, with stop loss 800 (ES)

Have a good one!

BTW, DAX is falling 1,42% now,

you may follow the indice (in polish) here:
http://stooq.pl/q/?s=dax

1d means 1 day, 3d means 3days ...
Jail, not bail!

#12 aussiebear

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 04:49 AM

Arsonists Torch Berlin Porsches, BMWs as Recession Fuels Anger

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- When Berlin resident Simone Klostermann returned from vacation and couldn’t find her Mercedes SLK, she thought it had been towed. Police told her the 35,000- euro ($45,000) car had been torched.

The 34-year-old’s experience isn’t unique in the German capital. At least 29 vehicles were destroyed in arson attacks this year, most of them luxury cars, according to police. The number is already about 30 percent of the total for 2008. The latest to go up in flames was a Porsche, on Feb. 14, two days after a Mercedes was set alight in a public car park.

A group calling itself BMW -- the initials stand for Movement for Militant Resistance in German -- has claimed responsibility for several attacks in left-wing magazines and Web sites, police spokesman Bernhard Schodrowski said.

One-third of the incidents are classed as “political,” prompting officers to assign a special unit to investigate, Schodrowski said. No arrests have been made. Schodrowski attributed the arson to “a protest against the world economy and rising rents.”

#13 Rationalize

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 05:13 AM

This is an interesting chart, although I have never used a Fisher Transform (sounds like a Playskool toy). But...

could you run those same indicators using the SPX cash market?

I find that incorporating ES overnight futures into my charts screws them up badly. Partially because of the leverage in futures. And also because when the SPX is closed, the ES futures have absolutely zero basis in reality -- it's mainly just 800,000 people trading against trendlines and their pet indicators, with a touch of reaction to Europe's moves mixed in for good measure. It almost feels like trading against machines sometimes.

But I'd be very curious to see what those indicators look like when run on the pure cash market. TIA

SPX below.. Still looks like a saggy up-turn to me [even without Monica]. Will be using shorts as pants only, for a while.

Fisher transform is roughly a inverse natural log of a stochastic.

Code:
def maxHigh = Highest(high, length);
def minLow = Lowest(low, length);
rec value = if maxHigh - minLow == 0 then 0 else 0.66 * ((close - minLow) / (maxHigh - minLow) - 0.5) + 0.67 * value[1];
def truncValue = if value > 0.99 then 0.999 else if value < -0.99 then -0.999 else value;
rec fish = 0.5 * (log((1 + truncValue) / (1 - truncValue)) + fish[1]);

GMTFO3.gif
PARTY! NORTH KOREA! SATURDAY NIGHT! BYOF (bring your own food)

#14 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 05:34 AM

SPX below.. Still looks like a saggy up-turn to me [even without Monica]. Will be using shorts as pants only, for a while.

Fisher transform is roughly a inverse natural log of a stochastic.

Code:
def maxHigh = Highest(high, length);
def minLow = Lowest(low, length);
rec value = if maxHigh - minLow == 0 then 0 else 0.66 * ((close - minLow) / (maxHigh - minLow) - 0.5) + 0.67 * value[1];
def truncValue = if value > 0.99 then 0.999 else if value < -0.99 then -0.999 else value;
rec fish = 0.5 * (log((1 + truncValue) / (1 - truncValue)) + fish[1]);

GMTFO3.gif


Thanks!

Looks a little different on the cash market -- definitely less saggy w/out Monica.

Check out the indicator postions on and around Sept. 19th, as well as before the green line in July -- very similar crossovers and turns as the current action, although from a higher level.

It looks like it leads the price low somewhat, which jives with my count which says we're entering wave i of v of 3 of 5 here, so when that larger wave 3 completes, we should get a decent wave 4 bounce -- and this bounce is most likely no more than a week off. Wave 2 took weeks, so wave 4 could last for several weeks as well, which would reconcile w/ your indicators. Whaddo you think? I'm certainly no expert on these Fisher Price Transformers featuring Optimus Prime.

I of course have my own systems, and hence my own market bias right now... but I must say, the chart you put up of the ES the other day got me thinking and wondering. Thanks for sharing this.
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#15 Jetlag

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Posted 27 February 2009 - 06:16 AM

The servitude of Debt, the definite indication that Russia is losing its grip on the "eastern block". Not tanks rolling in, not troops marching uncontested along the main streets a simple IOU is the lion piss marking the turf.

"The World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank will provide up to 24.5 billion euros ($31 billion) to help central and east European banks and businesses cope with the global financial crisis. "

http://www.bloomberg...6...&refer=home





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