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#31 MrHanky

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:08 PM

Market update -  http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=3259

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Thanks for scaring the cr@p outta me again Doc :unsure:





Also Thanks for everyone's input here.Definately a big help even though there are so many downside targets to consider! B)

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#32 T_Slim

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:26 PM

I got weekly support on the Dow at 7400. Anyone else seeing that?

#33 capitall

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:27 PM

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#34 byhiselo

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 07:55 PM

lot of things pointing to Oct. 22/23 and 50% off sale on the DOW as some kind of a low, Carl Swenlin's latest:

http://www.decisionp.../081017_os.html

Bob Hoye is also looking for some kind of bottom in later half of October:

"Our work a few months ago suggested that the decline could climax by late October. Monday's ChartWorks suggests that if the "Capitulation" is registered on Friday then the bottom could be accomplished in the latter part of October.

In January we looked to the patterns in the 1973 and 1937 bears. As the year developed, the common items to both called that upon the hard break in May the decline from the October top would be around 25%, which was the case. The overall decline could amount to 49%, but need not be limited to that."

http://www.safehaven...ticle-11571.htm

#35 Jetlag

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:02 PM

A friend of mine has a subscription to Swenlin's decisionpoint.com  Says Swenlin's methods indicate a high probability of a sizeable rally, coming out of a low of some kind around the middle of next week.  Of course, given recent volatility, the Dow could drop several thousand points before that low occurs, so that expectation could dovetail with Doc's Black Monday probability.

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"Finally, I am compelled to show you a chart of the 9-Month Cycles. My current projection for the next cycle low is October 22. As you can see, it is highly likely that the cycle low is already in as of last week, although we can never be sure except in hindsight. Nevertheless, the cycle chart is one more piece of evidence that we could be getting a sustainable rally at any time."

http://www.decisionp.../081017_os.html

#36 Jetlag

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:07 PM

You think this bear market is tough?

"Iceland's benchmark stock index plunged 77 percent, the biggest decline on record, as trading resumed after a three-day suspension and the nationalization of the country's largest banks."

http://www.bloomberg...id=a6_D.jvgUmFA

#37 byhiselo

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:20 PM

You think this bear market is tough?

"Iceland's benchmark stock index plunged 77 percent, the biggest decline on record, as trading resumed after a three-day suspension and the nationalization of the country's largest banks."

http://www.bloomberg...id=a6_D.jvgUmFA

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patience, we're getting there...gulp...DOW/SPX off 70% from top should do it

DOW 4000/SPX 500 getting more mindshare for me a least and not enjoying it one bit... :(

#38 byhiselo

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:21 PM

Another nice piece by Hoye on the current contraction:

http://www.safehaven...ticle-11576.htm

#39 byhiselo

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:28 PM

some nice 1929 charts from alphatrends.net:

http://alphatrends.b...arch?q=1929 dow

#40 seamus

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:39 PM

Credit Market Update

Actually started to loosen up the past two days though cash is at its wides and individual cds and index cds are just off their wides. Trading flow has been picking up with the declines in funding rates and libor so that is a good thing for now.

We have taken off our underweight in credit the past few weeks through the utilization of the new issue market (CAT, UNP, IBM) but have started selling positions the last few days using any liqudity provided in the secondary markets to lighten up on bonds that have some hair for whatever reason (off the run/smaller deals etc.).

Interesting to note that we have not utilized a primary dealer to transact but for new issues....using smaller broker dealer counterparties in customer bid/offer wanted situations for the most part and not pushing stuff off the cliff into down bids. Patience is a bond investors greatest virtue.

Liquidity even in the Treasury market is very limited and we are having a tough time transacting in coupons or strips - disconcerting and speaks volumes about the lack of balance sheets out there.

On a good note - our firm just got ranked in the top decile for our core bond product among all investment managers over the 1/3/5 year time period. Thank God I knew I was never smart enough to try and understand the garbage that was produced in the last five years.

:lol:

#41 MrHanky

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:49 PM

Another bank (Credit union) blows up....
High Desert Federal Credit Union Placed Into Conservatorship



http://www.ncua.gov/...8/MR08-1016.htm

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#42 DrStool

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:53 PM

seamus- we're proud of ya!

Now could you just give us a glossary for all that bond guy jargon. :lol:

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#43 BusKow

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:53 PM

watching for a shift in short term pricing trend

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Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

#44 seamus

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 08:56 PM

Doc - I'm still learning!

Something in particular?

#45 lineup32

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 09:01 PM

A lot of good people have already been destroyed. And while there will be "a bottom" of sorts somewhere along the line here, it will not be THE BOTTOM. Not even close.

THE BOTTOM will come when everybody has stopped bottom fishing, and no one gives a damn about the market any more.

The market went down for 2 1/2 years after the 1929 crash. At the bottom in 1932 no one was trading any more. Just a handful of survivors were quietly accumulating stocks for the future.

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could be very mistaken but it seems there is plenty of time to choose a bottom so to speak, just looking at CSCO as an indication of what many of these stocks could look like for years after this sell off. Kinda like Japan!

csco.gif





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