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#16 phatbubble

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:33 PM

My charts have been so accurate since 10/9 that it scares me.  Per my posts, I called the "bottom" on Fri., nailed the top on Tues. almost to the dollar, nailed the drop and retrace Wed. thru today (Phat will vouch for me here). 

That frightens me, because my charts are still telling me we make a new SPX low in the 600s.  The only thing I'm not sure of is if we go down to low-mid 700s, then back up to 1000, THEN down for the final IT bottom.

Well, I should say: I'm still not sure of any of it.  :lol:

But that's my best guess.

*Disclaimer:  No one should listen to me or attempt to trade based on my opinion.  :blink:

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Yo, I be vouchin.

Do you have a timeframe?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#17 Captain's Log

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:35 PM

Well I hope you are all wrong : I doubled up on my DIG before lunch.
Last time I did that, I lost 25%. :)

That will teach me to take afternoon off and not look at the ticker.

Oh well, my 1 day QQQQ calls worked out so that will pay for any splat the pan drop.

#18 cwd

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:39 PM

Funny article on Bloomberg....

Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success

``I was in this game for money,'' Lahde, 37, wrote in a two-page letter today in which he said he had come to hate the hedge-fund business. ``The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

``All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other sides of my trades. God Bless America.''




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Got a link? Thanks. :D

#19 cwd

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:46 PM

Funny article on Bloomberg....

Lahde Quits Hedge Funds, Thanks `Idiots' for Success

``I was in this game for money,'' Lahde, 37, wrote in a two-page letter today in which he said he had come to hate the hedge-fund business. ``The low-hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government.

``All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other sides of my trades. God Bless America.''




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I think Darrell Radigan must have had his money in a fund that was on the other side of this guy's trade. He is talking about putting the crooks in jail. :lol:

#20 cwd

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:50 PM

Richard Russell had this comment. :o

The negative span between Lowry's Selling Pressure Index and their Buying Power Index widened yesterday to a record 671 points. With the Selling Pressure Index only 3 points below its record high of Oct. 10. This is hardly news to cheer about, and it's enough to keep me on the sidelines. All of which is discouraging, but it's what I see at this time.

#21 capitall

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:53 PM

Got a link? Thanks. :D

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http://www.bloomberg...HKyw&refer=home

#22 capitall

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 05:58 PM

My charts have been so accurate since 10/9 that it scares me.  Per my posts, I called the "bottom" on Fri., nailed the top on Tues. almost to the dollar, nailed the drop and retrace Wed. thru today (Phat will vouch for me here). 

That frightens me, because my charts are still telling me we make a new SPX low in the 600s.  The only thing I'm not sure of is if we go down to low-mid 700s, then back up to 1000, THEN down for the final IT bottom.

Well, I should say: I'm still not sure of any of it.  :lol:

But that's my best guess.

*Disclaimer:  No one should listen to me or attempt to trade based on my opinion.  :blink:

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Hi, PrtzlLogic

I forget, what method do you use? (Ewave, Gann etc.)

I agree, the time frame makes a big difference. If we go back to 14K on the Dow before making this new low in the markets, it would be quite different than if we went straight down from here.

Of course all methods are sometimes wrong too. U mentioned your charts have been so accurate since 10/9. What percentage of the time has your method been accurate before 10/9? Just wondering, trying to learn others' ways here.

#23 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:29 PM

Hi, PrtzlLogic

I forget, what method do you use?  (Ewave, Gann etc.)

I agree, the time frame makes a big difference.  If we go back to 14K on the Dow before making this new low in the markets, it would be quite different than if we went straight down from here. 

Of course all methods are sometimes wrong too.  U mentioned  your charts have been so accurate since 10/9.  What percentage of the time has your method been accurate before 10/9?  Just wondering, trying to learn others' ways here.

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What percentage pre-10/9? Not 100%, that's fer sure! :lol: That's part of what scares me. :ph34r:

As to what I use: I analyze a combination of E-wave, traditional TA, and Doc's cycles (I let Doc do the cycle work. If you're not the best, you hire the best!). Basically, I look for the times when everything seems to be in agreement and trade accordingly. E-wave is hard to use by itself as a predictive measure, so I tap into it most when the situation seems like a no-brainer -- such as now. The recent decline was so obviously a wave 3 of 3 that the counts going forward near-term seem fairly self-evident (i.e.- still looking for 5 of 3 down to complete, assuming here that wave 4 of 3 completed Tues., and wave 1 of 5 of 3 completed yesterday). This count jives with Doc's "black Monday" since that would be wave 3 of 5 of 3, and should be a powerful down-thrust.

The main lingering doubt I have is that it's possible the "crash" was the end of c of (a), in which case we won't see new lows immediately and I'm completely wrong. The other uncertainty I have is that the larger wave 4 of the larger 3 could be playing out as a triangle, in which case 5 of 3 hasn't started yet.

These are some of the reasons why no one should listen to me. ;)

Phat: If my main count is right, things should get real ugly early next week.
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#24 DrStool

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:31 PM

IF this plays out and the charts say its a strong possiblilty,

i'll be buying DOW 7100 and equivalent DDM, SSO, UWM with both hands near the close on Wednesday...a pukefest like we haven't seen in a long time

again, i'm hoping it doesn't happen as a lot of good people will be hurt financially and are going throw in the towel at the bottom and will not be in position to buy back in

hoping for the best... :ph34r:

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A lot of good people have already been destroyed. And while there will be "a bottom" of sorts somewhere along the line here, it will not be THE BOTTOM. Not even close.

THE BOTTOM will come when everybody has stopped bottom fishing, and no one gives a damn about the market any more.

The market went down for 2 1/2 years after the 1929 crash. At the bottom in 1932 no one was trading any more. Just a handful of survivors were quietly accumulating stocks for the future.

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#25 phatbubble

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:32 PM

Looking at SPX on 1 min, 5 min, 15 min, 30 min, and 1 hr timeframes. The last strand of MA spaghetti on each is at 928-930. Below that is a giant void.

The stochastics on several of the charts have rolled over in unison.

Unless we get a McQueen on Sun night, Mon could be something.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#26 The End

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:39 PM

I'll be short until 750-650 area and entering long for a trade between 650 and 550. Sometime over the next week or two.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#27 phatbubble

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:47 PM

The recent decline was so obviously a wave 3 of 3 that the counts going forward near-term seem fairly self-evident (i.e.- still looking for 5 of 3 down to complete, assuming here that wave 4 of 3 completed Tues., and wave 1 of 5 of 3 completed yesterday).  This count jives with Doc's "black Monday" since that would be wave 3 of 5 of 3, and should be a powerful down-thrust.

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If so, if 3=1, that'd bring us to around 810. If 3=1.618*1, that'd be 700.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#28 phatbubble

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:48 PM

Hey TE, good to see you.

That's a pretty bullish stance you're taking...
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#29 DrStool

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:51 PM

Market update - http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=3259

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#30 T_Slim

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Posted 17 October 2008 - 06:57 PM

I got bearish divergence on the daily charts of YM and EP. Plus, the weekly charts are looking pretty bearish too. Monday could be a doozy. May post some charts over the weekend.





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