Jump to content


Photo

Yo Yo Yo Yo Yo


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
431 replies to this topic

#406 summoner

summoner

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,255 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 08:40 PM

perfect 4th wave would take us up into the election and then lights out with the crapitulation move lower....maxpain almost 700 on the RUT :ph34r: Could get a 15% assblast this week. Had a chitload of Dec rustys long at 475 on friday and got stopped out on a trailing stop loss after I was a few points ITM just before the rocket up into the close. Chit happens when you can t watch every tick. Trade Safe
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#407 4shzl

4shzl

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,365 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 08:52 PM

perfect 4th wave would take us up into the election and then lights out with the crapitulation move lower....maxpain almost 700 on the RUT :ph34r: Could get a 15% assblast this week. Had a chitload of Dec rustys long at 475 on friday and got stopped out on a trailing stop loss after I was a few points ITM just before the rocket up into the close. Chit happens when you can t watch every tick. Trade Safe

View Post

That really sux -- you had the perfect trade. :(

I've long believed that a rutty washout would mark the end of this leg down in schlocks. We had that last week, and the fact that it wound up 4.6% on the the day Friday is a significant tell -- at least IMHO.
The problem with Californians is that they think that death is optional. -- Aldous Huxley

The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us. -- Paul Valéry

#408 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,383 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 09:15 PM

We have a Gold Forum. THere's a link to it in the left column. It's reasonably active and there are some good people over there.

http://www.capitalst...php?act=SF&f=11

So ,use it.

The discussion about what gold represents may be fun and interesting for some of you, but the argument doesn't belong on M2M. Take it to Stool's Gold, please.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#409 Charmin

Charmin

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 34,177 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 09:34 PM

If we compare our current situation to a 1929 bottom, then the question I might have is will next year's price compare to 1930

Mike Swanson
http://www.wallstree...ntent/node/8254

Posted Image
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#410 BusKow

BusKow

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,361 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 09:41 PM

It was the second Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in as many days and the latest in a series of high-profile military exercises of conventional land, sea and air forces as well as strategic nuclear units.

Russia conducts ballistic missile tests
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.

#411 Sea urchin

Sea urchin

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 212 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 09:54 PM

Stoolies maybe be interested in the case of Japan when the government did the direct injection of Japanese taxpayers' money into banks:

In 1997, after Japan's RE bubble burst, Yamaichi, the biggest and oldest brokerage firm went down (I posted about this when I finally remembered the name of the brokerage firm, which took me several months!). :ph34r: :ph34r:

In the same year, Hokkaido Development Bank bankrupted. :ph34r:

In 1998, Japan Long-Term Trust Bank (Chogin) berried up, which really spooked Japanese people as well as the government because this was one of the major banks at that time. :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r:

Triggered by the bankruptcy of Chogin, the government decided the injection of taxpayers money. The government formed "Financial Revitalization Committee" and directly injected 124 billion dollars ($1=100 yen) to 37 banks including major and regional banks[COLOR=red]. Mizuho and Mitsui Sumitomo Financial Group were some of those gotten the injection. :huh:

One of the things that the Japanese government did was to cut the compensations of the executive officers and board members to clarify the responsiblity of the managements. (totally agreed!) :D :D

The banks being injected started writing off of bad loans, following the government's guidance.

As of September, 2008, 3 major financial groups returned the whole amount of the injected money to the government. The total amount returned is 92 billion dollars, which accounts for 70 percent of the total injection. :)

12 banks and financial groups have not returned the injected money yet, amounting 32 billion dollars. :mellow:

Source: 10/11 NHK news
---

I feel that direct injection with responsiblity to return money would be good. I don't know whether or not accrued interests are paid to the government. Probably not. :mellow:

Please note that Japanese executive officers and board members at that time (and probably today too) are NOT paid as HIGH as Wall Street executive officers and board members a.k.a. Mister Universe.

#412 4shzl

4shzl

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,365 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:06 PM

Stoolies maybe be interested in the case of Japan when the government did the direct injection of Japanese taxpayers' money into banks:

In 1997, after Japan's RE bubble burst, Yamaichi, the biggest and oldest brokerage firm went down (I posted about this when I finally remembered the name of the brokerage firm, which took me several months!).  :ph34r:  :ph34r:

In the same year, Hokkaido Development Bank bankrupted.  :ph34r:

In 1998, Japan Long-Term Trust Bank (Chogin) berried up, which really spooked Japanese people as well as the government because this was one of the major banks at that time.  :ph34r:  :ph34r:  :ph34r:

Triggered by the bankruptcy of Chogin, the government decided the injection of taxpayers money. The government formed "Financial Revitalization Committee" and directly injected 124  billion dollars ($1=100 yen) to 37 banks including major and regional banks[COLOR=red]. Mizuho and Mitsui Sumitomo Financial Group were some of those gotten the injection.  :huh:

One of the things that the Japanese government did was to cut the compensations of the executive officers and board members.

The banks being injected started writing off of bad loans, following the government's guidance.

As of September, 2008, 3 major financial groups returned the whole amount of the injected money to the government. The total amount returned is 92 billion dollars, which accounts for 70 percent of the total injection.  :)

12 banks and financial groups have not returned the injected money yet, amounting 32 billion dollars.  :mellow:

Source: 10/11 NHK news
---

I feel that direct injection with responsiblity to return money would be good. I don't know whether or not accrued interests are paid to the government. Probably not.  :mellow:

Please note that Japanese executive officers and board members at that time (and probably today too) are NOT paid as HIGH as Wall Street executive officers and board members a.k.a. Mister Universe.

View Post

Despite certain similarities between the U.S. today and Japan in the 90s, I am mostly struck by two key differences:

1) Japan had and continues to have a vast pool of domestic savings; and

2) The Japanese economy was and is based on an export model as opposed to domestic consumption.

I would much prefer to suffer through deflationary downturn in Japan's circumstances. The ST/IT prospects for the U.S. seem much grimmer. :(
The problem with Californians is that they think that death is optional. -- Aldous Huxley

The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us. -- Paul Valéry

#413 I_Am_Madness

I_Am_Madness

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,554 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:08 PM

Stoolies maybe be interested in the case of Japan when the government did the direct injection of Japanese taxpayers' money into banks:

In 1997, after Japan's RE bubble burst, Yamaichi, the biggest and oldest brokerage firm went down (I posted about this when I finally remembered the name of the brokerage firm, which took me several months!).  :ph34r:  :ph34r:

In the same year, Hokkaido Development Bank bankrupted.  :ph34r:

In 1998, Japan Long-Term Trust Bank (Chogin) berried up, which really spooked Japanese people as well as the government because this was one of the major banks at that time.  :ph34r:  :ph34r:  :ph34r:

Triggered by the bankruptcy of Chogin, the government decided the injection of taxpayers money. The government formed "Financial Revitalization Committee" and directly injected 124  billion dollars ($1=100 yen) to 37 banks including major and regional banks[COLOR=red]. Mizuho and Mitsui Sumitomo Financial Group were some of those gotten the injection.  :huh:

One of the things that the Japanese government did was to cut the compensations of the executive officers and board members.

The banks being injected started writing off of bad loans, following the government's guidance.

As of September, 2008, 3 major financial groups returned the whole amount of the injected money to the government. The total amount returned is 92 billion dollars, which accounts for 70 percent of the total injection.  :)

12 banks and financial groups have not returned the injected money yet, amounting 32 billion dollars.  :mellow:

Source: 10/11 NHK news
---

I feel that direct injection with responsiblity to return money would be good. I don't know whether or not accrued interests are paid to the government. Probably not.  :mellow:

Please note that Japanese executive officers and board members at that time (and probably today too) are NOT paid as HIGH as Wall Street executive officers and board members a.k.a. Mister Universe.

View Post


I don't think governments do these type of interventions to really save banks. It's more of a confidence game. I call it 'damage' control.
Stop the Madness

#414 Slappy

Slappy

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,491 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:19 PM

Got delivery on the bullion I ordered on Friday after the close. You really get a great price when you buy in the really large sizes....


See it hear! ( If that's even possible )


Posted Image

:lol:

#415 Slappy

Slappy

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,491 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:24 PM

OK, I'm just pulling your leg. That cube is a cube of chicken bullion, and for all you ESL folk, bullion is also a name for dehydrated soup base.

But seriously, I'm only buying the real thing as a hedge against a troubled economic and financial climate in the next few years...


And that ain't much of a gamble.

#416 roxy

roxy

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,978 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:41 PM

How much was an ounce of gold worth in 1933?
How much is an ounce worth today?
Sheesh, do the math!

View Post


Pretty much the same, if you don't count the last 2-3 years rally.

The gold chart is bearish, so eventually it will revert to the mean and we'll see it flat with 1933 levels.

#417 Jimbo

Jimbo

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,150 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:52 PM

THE JIMBO's BIRTHDAY RALLY

November will be an up month - rather strongly

The governments of the world are in a competition as to who can extend their credit ratings and balance sheet protection to the banks.

However this does not make the banks assets more valuable.

What it does do however is make the debt of the governments involved more risky.

A lot more risky. :ph34r:

The pressure has to escape somewhere.

And trasheries of all governments is where the pressure will be shown.

Long stocks short trasheries now the slam dunk the play.

Money will come flooding out of trasheries into stocks like a giant coiled spring.

Very bad for trasheries long term.

The new safe haven for the mountian if hot capital - STOCKS!!!!!! :lol: :lol:

The irony of it all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


PS because of the collapse in the Aussie my gold holdings have appreciated 30% in the past 3 weeks!!!!
timoleon

#418 Forrest

Forrest

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 69 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 10:52 PM

Doc wrote:

The discussion about what gold represents may be fun and interesting for some of you, but the argument doesn't belong on M2M. Take it to Stool's Gold, please.



On the other hand, M2M to me is tossing around a lot of ideas from various people. Especially on the weekend, when there's no trading pressure, it's nice to hear what people are thinking on a wide variety of subjects; I know I like to think about where my DGP might be heading, and posters' input is carefully weighed by me. I guess I don't really know what M2M is supposed to consist of, if not general market discussion, including talk of AU. I thought the Stool's Gold site was more trading-specific gold discussion.

Just one subscriber's opinion...

#419 stevieo

stevieo

    Bachelor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 581 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:12 PM

Doc wrote:
On the other hand, M2M to me is tossing around a lot of ideas from various people. Especially on the weekend, when there's no trading pressure, it's nice to hear what people are thinking on a wide variety of subjects; I know I like to think about where my DGP might be heading, and posters' input is carefully weighed by me. I guess I don't really know what M2M is supposed to consist of, if not general market discussion, including talk of AU. I thought the Stool's Gold site was more trading-specific gold discussion.

Just one subscriber's opinion...

View Post


From Dr. Stool's post on the message board on WallStreetExaminer.com
http://wallstreetexa....php?topic=2.15

Thanks for your thoughts John!

You mean Capitalstool.com? There the topics with the most recent posts are at the top of the topic list. The most recent posts are at the bottom of each thread. The setups are the same here. The primary difference is that there, as the board evolved everyone tended to gravitate to one thread, and that's the way it has remained with IDS during the day and M2M at night, so that the most recent topic is the current thread in each of those.

As the number of users build here (hopefully), we'll see how this one evolves... if it evolves. I thought that Russ's posts would be the basis for a good daily discussion, but there are just too few users so far. Russ has many more posting directly in his comments sections. My hope is that some of those folks would like the board format and would emerge as discussion leaders here. But at the same time I don't want to try to divert people from posting on the blog comments either.

I'll continue to work this, and I appreciate all thoughts and suggestions!

For people new to this forum, the LOB forum here at CapitalStool.com used to be pretty active. The big difference is that the LOB forum (and the others like the gold forum--there were others that are just gone) had named topics, so we had discussions that spanned days, weeks, and months. You didn't have to read the forum that day to respond and contribute. The topics here and on intraday are based on days. If you broach a subject here or intraday, people can only respond that day. It works for trading, but not for anything else. As Doc says, people slowly abandoned LOB for whtever reasons. Doc tried to get that stuff going on WallStreetExaminer, but it hasn't caught on. In fact, the last 3 posts there are very sad.

I might start posting there instead of here, since a lot of my posts are about economics, not trading. Noone much responds to me here anyway--not in the way it might go in an LOB type forum--although I know people listen a lot more than they respond. I'm not worth a blog, but maybe a little posting on that site will start something or someone else going.

#420 Jimbo

Jimbo

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,150 posts

Posted 12 October 2008 - 11:27 PM

THE CDS MARKET AND THE EXPLOSIAN OF THE FALSE CONSTUCT

Wansn the CDS market all about reducing risk???

No its was all about betting on default.

There are $128bn of defaulted Lehman senior bonds outstanding, but no one knows the gross sum of related derivatives, with estimates ranging from $200bn to $440bn.


So only $128 billion in bonds but $440 billion paid out on default!!!!!!!!!

Some people getting very very rich indeed by "breaking the bank" in this casino.

So LEHMAN was actually worth MORE DEAD THAN ALIVE!!!!!

Why bother with a measly $128 billion return on your bonds when you can get $440 billion from a bankruptcy?????

The CDS market is in reality just a giant insolvency casino.

Because the big payoff in the CDS market is if a company defaults - like Lehman.

Indeed you could insure against default even if you owned no underlying debt.

Isnt that gambling.

If Lehman had gambled against itself and loaded up on credit protection in its own debt, then it wouldnt have gone bankrupt, it couldnt have gone bankrupt. :ph34r:

This is what Goldman and Morgan should do - load up on credit protection on their own debt with other counter parties!!!!

So the more their assets fall in value, and the greater the risk in insolvency, then the more valuable are the CDS they own - the risk is transfered to others!!!!

Its like a free and unlimited capital injection with no dilution to shareholders funds.

Beats having to pay warren 10% any time
timoleon





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart