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IDS World Markets Fri 10th October 08


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#46 Trader Joe

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 07:58 AM

Trying desperately not to buy AWP this AM!!

Fund Quick Facts
As of 10/09/2008 
Closing NAV: $5.61    Current Distribution Rate: 38.30%
Closing Share Price: $3.97    Premium/(Discount): -29.23%

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I would be mucho careful about buying any REITS or CEF's that are real estate focused.....many REITS will fold before this thing runs its course

#47 hokahay

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:00 AM

Trader Joe "Quote of the Day"

....from a guest on CNBS this AM

"The market will have to stop going down at some point, we can only have 12 more days like yesterday and the Dow will be at zero"

...friggin' hilarious  :lol:

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Kernan asking about "buy Rosh Hashana, Sell Yom Kippur."
:lol: :lol:

#48 DrStool

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:06 AM

I have a personal question to ask.  I really respect the collective intelligence on this board and have greatly appreciated advice in the past.  I’ve been wrestling with this decision and believe I know the answer, but would like to hear any thoughts you might have.  I have a deadline to meet tomorrow, and obviously I am not sleeping with this and everything else that’s happening right now.

I have stock in a private family business.  The company does $700m selling kitchen sinks, cabinets, and drinking fountains.  Obviously, the company just had some of the best years ever in its 80+ year history, but now it will have to endure the downturn in the housing industry.  It has very little debt and is cash heavy (assuming they can get their cash). 

I sold half my stock last year in the 3rd quarter.  I sold it to help finance a new business, but those plans are on the shelf right now.  Needless to say, selling stock in a family business was/is not well received (not that I care at this point).

I think I’m fairly well positioned at this point, being in 1/3 paper cash, 1/3 electronic cash (trading accounts), and 1/3 bullion/GLD.  I think (hope) I will weather this storm and am salivating over some of the fixed income opportunities if the markets survive.  I had felt pretty comfortable holding the remaining stock from a diversification standpoint. 

However, there are some very real doubts about their chances of survival.  There will be zero new homes built in the foreseeable future, just about everyone who wanted to remodel their kitchen has done so through the home equity ATM (which is also dead for the foreseeable future), and the financial catastrophe we are witnessing will only serve to exasperate this industry downturn.  I really doubt that they can weather a depression.

So, would you sell the rest of the company stock, or let it ride?

FWIW, there is zero chance they will ever try to sell the company.  The majority shareholder has made this abundantly clear year after year.  As their #1 company value states: “we are in business forever.” 

Anyway, here’s the quandary.  If I sell and get cash, I would have to park it in a bank(s) and ensure the accounts are under FDIC coverage.  No problem, unless the whole banking system collapses.  I doubt the FDIC could cover all accounts in the country, even if they insured all deposits (like they are talking about now).  A systemic collapse would threaten the whole enchilada (except for the bullion).  Of course, a systemic collapse would also threaten the viability of the company, so it looks like a lose/lose either way.

But, if by some miracle the financial system survives, this becomes a choice between riding out the downturn in the industry, or having a huge chunk of change available to invest.  I’m really salivating over some of the yields out there, especially on those close-end funds.  If the markets survive, I could be looking at the investment opportunity of a lifetime.  15-20-25% fixed income from here on out would blow away any kind of possible return that might come from the company, not to mention the investment opportunities that will be present if/when the next bull market starts.

As I boil this down, it seems like the smartest move is to sell the stock and pray that they save the financial system.  Would anybody disagree?  Why? 

TIA – I deeply appreciate any insight.

BTW – headline just flashed on CNBS said:  “Japan government bonds dumped by dealer rush to cash.”  Could this be a canary?

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If you have already taken care of your nuclear family's needs, then the question is do you care about your extended family? Everybody's different, but if it was a choice between having a little more money or the love of brothers, sisters, cousins aunts, and uncles, then it's a no brainer.

It bothers me that the responses to the question started and ended with money. If it were me, once I had taken care of my inner family I would not risk breaking or injuring the relationships I have with my relatives, especially if they are headed for tough times. Family first.

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#49 DrStool

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:07 AM

Kernan asking about "buy Rosh Hashana, Sell Yom Kippur." 
:lol:  :lol:

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He has it backwards. It's "Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur."

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#50 DrStool

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:09 AM

Good Morning!

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#51 Lemur

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:10 AM

I'm long YM at 8303 real early this morning.
Stop at 8240 area.

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Stopped out (1 pt above breakeven). Looking to get back in now.

Queues at the bank (normal size). Did not want to wait so have my money out another day. Hopefully, it will still be there Monday. Have lots of bullion anyway.

#52 Pacific

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:10 AM

I would be mucho careful about buying any REITS or CEF's that are real estate focused.....many REITS will fold before this thing runs its course

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Agreed, Been short anything RE related and looking out my window in downtown MIAMI still see far too many cranes, but not sure everything goes to zero.......AWP is interesting because it is not leveraged and is diversified internationally......also down 80% from the peak...scheduled to pay 10% in divys by Xmas.....here are some of their holdings:
Holding Dollar Value % of Total Portfolio
Unibail - Rodamco N/A 4.47
Segro PLC N/A 2.53
Accor SA N/A 2.45
PIK Group N/A 1.93
Immofinanz AG N/A 1.92
Orient-Express Hotels, Ltd. N/A 1.77
Hammerson PLC N/A 1.7
Hypo Real Estate Holding AG N/A 1.65
Kowloon Development Co., Ltd. N/A 1.6
CapitaCommercial Trust N/A 1.57

#53 hokahay

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:11 AM

He has it backwards. It's "Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur."

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I messed up. It's just that I saw it first here. I figure they must be surfing for material.

#54 psyche doctor

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:19 AM

Donged NQ earlier. Will probably dump it from these levels and observe till the stock market opens. NQ at 1258, but by the time you read this it could be many points away. I've never seen such volatility in my entire life. 10-20 point handles in minutes. Had to cut my normal position size down to minimze risk. No sense in getting reamed.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#55 Lemur

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:20 AM

Well glad I did not hold on to those energy trusts (and indeed made money trading the bounces). They look like bankruptcy charts. so much for div. yield.

#56 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:21 AM

MS prints new low at 9.50 in prehour
Stop the Madness

#57 psyche doctor

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:26 AM

Naz100 futures apear to be in a triangle on a 5 min. chart.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#58 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:26 AM

Up well over 100 Dow points and 18 rut points on my longs, and have never been so scared that that kind of gain could evaporate in 2 minutes flat... :lol: :lol:

#59 psyche doctor

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:28 AM

Up well over 100 Dow points and 18 rut points on my longs, and have never been so scared that that kind of gain could evaporate in 2 minutes flat... :lol:  :lol:

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I know the feeling!
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#60 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 October 2008 - 08:28 AM

Rut futs back to UNCH by the way





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