IDS World Markets Wed 8th October 08
412 replies to this topic
Posted 08 October 2008 - 01:51 AM
agree with you, mrhanky. our bear profits aside, the times are getting crappier for the majority of folks. i'm quite saddened when i think about what the future holds for not only my children and the USandA, but for just about everyone else on this rock.
as jimi said, we're losing an opportunity to create a better path. who amongst our leaders has the courage to do more than prop up a financial system that's proven itself unworthy of deliverance and preservation?
i have no doubt that something better will emerge from tough times. but the tough times were not only needlessly birthed, they're being needlessly extended by thoughtless action.
Posted 08 October 2008 - 01:56 AM
we've had five consecutive down days on the ass'n'pee. the last time this happened was in january. i don't have the stats at hand, but i remember reading that six, seven, and eight consecutive neg days are fairly rare. then again, the mahkit is now bearing witness to extraordinary circumstances and could easily become curious and curiouser.
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:10 AM
not quite what i was looking for after a hasty search. . . instead of discussing how frequently n consecutive down days occur, these pieces discuss the magnitude of the bounce after severe downdrafts.
". . . covers the period from the April 1998 highs to the bottom in October. After 9 consecutive down days the index rallied for about 3 weeks before falling to its final low in October."
"Stocks that closed down exactly five consecutive days, on average,
outperformed the benchmark 1-week later (+0.63%).
"Stocks that closed down exactly six consecutive days, on average,
outperformed the benchmark 1-week later (+0.82%).
"Stocks that closed down exactly seven consecutive days, on average,
outperformed the benchmark 1-week later (+1.06%)."
it'll serve us well to keep in mind doc's warning (paraphrased) that the last days of a plunge will rip the face off prices. under normal circumstances (i.e., short-selling allowed), we bears would be greeted as liberators.
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:16 AM
Overseas is ugly.Nikkei being taken apart.....
No words to describe the destruction....
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:25 AM
Sheesh, I go out to do some shopping and all hell breaks loose...
All Ords made another new recent low and closed -5% for the day. We are now sitting on support way back in 2005 but there's no reason to think that that will hold in the medium (or even short) term.
There were massive falls across most sectors: IT -8%, Energy -7.1%, Miners -6.6% and Financials -5.1% to name a few. Utilities dropped the least, still a fairly sizeable -2.4%.
The big miners crucified: BHP -5.7%, RIO -7.6% and in the golds, Lihir squeaked out a gain, +0.4% with Newcrest -4.3% and Newmont -6.1%.
Oils producers killed: Woodside -6.1%, Santos -8.6% with Caltex not quite so badly off at -2.7%.
Mayhem in Asia led by Nikkers -9.4%, China -3.6%, Honkers -5.6%, India -7.3%, Singers -6.9%, Sth Korea -5.8% and Taiwan -5.8%.
Gonna be slaughterama in Europe..
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:35 AM
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:37 AM
Japan's Nikkei 225 Records 3rd Biggest Drop; $250 Billion Lost
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's shares plunged, driving the equity benchmarks to the biggest rout since the October 1987 ``Black Monday'' crash, as the accelerating credit crisis prompted investors to unload their stock holdings.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-largest automaker, fell the most in nine years after Nikko Citigroup Ltd. cut its rating. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. slid 6.5 percent after nationwide bankruptcies surged to the highest since May 2003. Elpida Memory Inc., the nation's largest computer memory maker, dropped to a record low as the yen strengthened to 100 against the dollar.
``It's capitulation,'' said Masafumi Oshiden, a Tokyo-based fund manager at BlackRock Inc., which oversees more than $1.4 trillion. ``There are lots of forced sellers. If you're a fund that's going bust you need to close out all your positions.''
Japan Bankruptcies Climb at Fastest Pace in 8 Years
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's corporate bankruptcies jumped 34 percent last month, the fastest pace in eight years, as demand for exports slumped and credit-market turmoil engulfed the world's second-largest economy.
Bankruptcies rose to 1,408 cases in September from the same month a year earlier, Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. said in a report in Tokyo today. That's the biggest jump since March 2000, when cases rose 38.6 percent, according to Bloomberg data.
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:42 AM
Breaking: Bank of England announces it's going to clear interbank loans. Also indicates a capital injection of 50B quid for specified banks.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Posted 08 October 2008 - 02:42 AM
Yep, Doc and I could rent ourselves out to short sellers and long puts..
Posted 08 October 2008 - 05:10 AM
Unreal markets the last few weeks, we did really well
Thanks to all on this board for their insights. It has been my best two months for almost a year - both professionally and personal.
I get the feeling we have seen proper capitulation. No view on the market going forward, just going to trade what i see in front of me. Forget about historical price level - we have entered a new game.
The short selling ban in the US end tonight. Maybe a lot of longs have been front running it and already liquidated. I can't see new selling pressure from new shorts, but i maybe wrong.
All said, it has been a DOOZY! I guess more pain will probably be felt in those defensives where the FM's have been hiding out.
Doc, we had a internal trader meeting and guys where talking about good value they are seeing, I responded by quoting you: Value is like beauty, it is in the eye of the beholder. Didn't credit you though
Posted 08 October 2008 - 05:52 AM
Alright you knuckleheads,
I go away for a week in Aruba and look what happens. Thanks alot!!!
Incidentally, when I put up my 7,800 target for the Dow, I didn't expect it to get there in two weeks.
The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board