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#331 lineup32

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 10:53 PM

The situation is changed. Export is no longer a major contributor to GDP, Investment  and consumer sales now contribute to 75% of the economy. Infact, export is still growing despite of the current situation.

China think tank forecasts Q3 GDP growth at 10.2%

China will record a GDP growth of 10.2 percent in the third quarter, roughly the same as the second-quarter level, according to a report released on Friday by the State Information Center, a government think tank.

Can emerging economies continue 'dream growth'?

Can the emerging economies, including China, maintain their pep and lead the growth for the world at large amid exacerbated risks of a global economic downturn? This has become a hot topic for the participants of the 2008 Summer Davos forum, which will conclude on Sunday afternoon in the north China metropolis of Tianjin.

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China is a state run economy!!!! whatever numbers come out of the gov't should be taken with a large grain of salt.. Lots of multi-national companies of all strips have much invested in China so we shall hear about the emerging markets in the financial press and much of the MSM most of not all will be on the positive side.
Note how little attention the chemical posion of milk products in China has been discussed in the US which is a huge importer of their products including food. Pretty much a media freeze on the subject and not a wimper out of political parties who are greased by the multi-nationals. More political corruption brought to the citizens of America by its two major political parties whom are bought and payed for by the multi-nationals.

#332 4shzl

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 11:00 PM

yep, a whole lotta folks looking at 1080 level...am betting we overshoot it a bit...just to scare all the bottom pickers real good before we finally get a decent bounce.....

Is it possible we tag the weekly 900? Could happen quickly in a panic.....and we are in the air gap where just that kind of thing tends to happen.....

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Looking at it from a purely theatrical standpoint, I think it's just a little too pat for the passage of the bailout to be instantly followed by a deflationary collapse. You don't get to be CEO of GS without knowing how to paint the tape; I expect Hank to begin painting a masterpiece forthwith. If want to take the other side of the trade with a guy who's playing with $700 billion of OPM -- well, you've got a bigger pair than I do. :P
The problem with Californians is that they think that death is optional. -- Aldous Huxley

The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us. -- Paul Valéry

#333 Gamma

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 11:13 PM

China is a state run economy!!!! whatever numbers come out of the gov't should be taken with a large grain of salt.. Lots of multi-national companies of all strips have much invested in China so we shall hear about the emerging markets in the financial press and much of the MSM most of not all will be on the positive side.
Note how little attention the chemical posion of milk products in China has been discussed in the US which is a huge importer of their products including food.  Pretty much a media freeze on the subject and not a wimper out of political parties who are greased by the multi-nationals.  More political corruption brought to the citizens of America by its two major political parties whom are bought and payed for by the multi-nationals.

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The subject of poison milk is widely known in China and Chinese parents are all buying foreign milk powder for their children. People suffering from those companies which just care profit and executive bonus. Similarly the whole world is suffering poison debts.

#334 TURK

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 11:15 PM

Looking at it from a purely theatrical standpoint, I think it's just a little too pat for the passage of the bailout to be instantly followed by a deflationary collapse.  You don't get to be CEO of GS without knowing how to paint the tape; I expect Hank to begin painting a masterpiece forthwith.  If want to take the other side of the trade with a guy who's playing with $700 billion of OPM -- well, you've got a bigger pair than I do.  :P

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OTOH, I thought the money was already spent by the time the ink was dry on the president's signature :huh:
"Damn, the price of this stuff jumps around alot!"
Hokahay October, 2008

"Analyzing the spot price of gold is akin to analyzing the output from a randon number gereator." -ancient chinese proverb

#335 T_Slim

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 11:36 PM

alright where's the emergency rate cut? yen crosses kicking butt tonight. the carry trade be dead and what not

#336 T_Slim

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 11:40 PM

darn pittsburgh steelers. how dare they beat my jags at home.

#337 Jimbo

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Posted 05 October 2008 - 11:48 PM

THE GREAT CIRCLE JERK

The money running from money market funds is going straight into treasuries which is going straight to the financials who are unloading the stuff that underlies the money market funds to uncle sam.

So Uncle Sam is basically becoming a gigantic money market fund owning the same sought of assets money market funds own.

This is money market fund nationalisation - and it not being done by legislation - it is being driven and demanded by the customer - market driven socialism :ph34r:

But its the taxpayers who wear the loss - not the "money market fund depositors, who now dont have to worry about "breaking the buck".

Basically uncle sam is becoming the only lender of short term funds :ph34r:

This financial nationalisation is driven entirely driven by the desire to minimize loss is an environment of asset price deflation.
timoleon

#338 ChicagoBear

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Posted 06 October 2008 - 01:41 AM

with the doom and collapse ... any place to make money trading ??  im so LOST !  really anyone got some trades to share ?

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Buffett recommends GS and GE.

A GIANT CASE OF COLD TURKEY
America is a credit junkie that is going cold turkey.
Fanron, Freddymurk, Bear, Lehman, Wamu , Countrywide, Wachovia, Citi etc etc were just the needles through which the debt was injected.
The needles have now been withdrawn.
Only one big needle left - Uncle Sam
But Uncle sam owes the dealer (the FCB's) a lot of dough
How long before the dealer cuts him off  :ph34r:

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Nice analogy. B)

Thanks for your reply. You are correct, but the benefit of doing the analysis for me was that I have changed from seeing every fundamental factor pushing bullion prices higher, to more of a tug-of-war scenario.  On the one hand, demand for bullion is clearly strong as demonstrated by the premiums for real (not paper) metal, and also as demonstrated by the strong inflows to the GLD and SLV etfs.  On the other hand, in a debt deflation, there is going to be some liquidation of holdings done by those who used borrowed money to fund their purchases of bullion.  In my opinion that is the cause of the dramatic price declines in the last couple of months.  The question in my mind now is, has most of the debt liquidation based sellng of bullion already occurred?  Will demand continue to be strong enough to drive the premium for real metal higher? 
At least now I have a reasonable explanation for why my bullion has declined recently, and now I have to ponder whether the bullish forces will outweigh the bearish forces.
For now I am still holding my GLD and SLV.

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It is very confusing. :blink:
Physical demand is high and supplies are tight. I think as long as we know demand is high, owning the physical is safe and shouldn't be measured in dollars. There is definately a disconnect. I think market prices are being driven by institutional investors who are being forced to liquidate all assets in order to raise capital. IMO, this is actually creating a favorable buying opportunity, but the danger here is if conditions don't improve a/o even get worse, forced liquidation could continue. From this perspective, the ETF's are risky.
I have also been pointing out fear/confidence affects associated with financial dislocations. Fear grows = GLD goes up. Government/Fed take actions = restore confidence = GLD goes down. It's been easy to see on the charts. Last week GLD was falling in the days leading up to the vote. The interesting thing is that rather than getting whacked with the bill's passage, it did an upside churn and held ground on Friday. I'm not ready to read much into this, but I'm willing to hold GLD and see what happens next (i.e. more fear next week should be bullish). Also note the weekly chart below. The relative strength line (v. SP500) actually went up last week even though the price fell. Price and RS hit two previous highs coinciding with the BS bail-out and Paulson's promise to back FNM/FRE. I would have thought RS would start falling again, but equities fell harder last week. A break-out of the RS to new highs would be a buy signal in my book.

Potatohead,
My wife and I was discussing starting our own slver bar casting company. We can buy comex 1000oz bars at spot + 59 cents. Then recast them in 100 oz bars with a fancy name and logo and sell them on the open market (ebay possibly) for $18/oz. I would need an assayer to certfy the content (maybe I can get that certification, I am a professional engineer).
Question is: What is the downside?

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In addition to Jimi's points, what is the point to making your own bars? Making your own bars would only make sense if you added value to the product. If you're just in it to make money, why not just buy and re-sell?

Making your own would also incur a start-up investment for equipment, a facility, and regulatory/liscensing hurdles = probably too much effort and would leave you in the hole for a while.

I said this in the bugs forum, but I'm sure no one there agrees with me:  this type of buying panic looks a LOT more like a top than a bottom.  It reminds me of the Beanie Baby craze a few years ago.  And the ebay behaviour tells me that John and Mary Lunchbucket are now gold and silver "investors."  As Buffet says, in any trend you have the three "I's": the innovators, the imitators, and the idiots.  The idiots (obviously) are the ones who come along at the end and buy from the smart money as the party is ending.  Where would you place the ebay crowd?
It was telling to me that the huge day gold had last month was "the biggest gain since 1980."  What happened to the gold market shortly after 1980?   :ph34r:
It was also telling to me that my sister, whom I'd been advising for YEARS to buy gold, FINALLY called me three days ago and said, "Hey, I wanted to talk to you about buying some gold now."    :mellow:   I told her to stay the hell out of it for the time being.
I've been bullish on gold for some years... but i'm not bullish anymore.  I tend to believe we are headed into a deflationary period.  I suspect that inflation is further down the road, and I will look to load up on gold again when that time comes.
Just my two cents, FWIW.

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If they save the financial system, then you're probably right. If they can't save it, and everything collapses, then you'll probably be glad to have it.

Place your bets. I have a feeling we're about to find out. B)

Attached Thumbnails

  • GLD___10_3_08.jpg

If we don't change our direction, we're likely to end up where we are headed.
It wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark.
"and the vicious cycle will feed on itself in an orgy of cannibalistic self destruction until even the skeletal remains of the system are ground into powder." - Doc, 3/2/09

#339 Gamma

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Posted 06 October 2008 - 01:44 AM

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#340 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 06 October 2008 - 03:44 AM

Literally days away from total meltdown. :ph34r: :ph34r:


Germany takes hot seat as Europe falls into the abyss

We face extreme danger. Unless there is immediate intervention on every front by all the major powers acting in concert, we risk a disintegration of global finance within days. Nobody will be spared, unless they own gold bars.

The European Central Bank – which raised rates into the teeth of the crisis in July – has played a shockingly destructive role in this enveloping slump. Its growth predictions this year have been, and still are, delusional. Neglecting its global role, it has vastly complicated the fire-fighting efforts of Washington.

http://www.telegraph...-the-abyss.html

#341 phatbubble

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Posted 06 October 2008 - 04:15 AM

At the risk of being a broken rekkid, Europe is in deeper trouble than the US, and we're just starting to see that reflected in the numbers of a variety of indices.

The ECB's mandate is to manage inflation, and they went ahead and put tab A into slot B by moving up to 4.25%, but slot B is wired to conduit C at 20,000 volts, and they're standing in waist deep water.

We've just seen the first inklings of why the more bearish European views actually envision a fracturing or disintegration of the EU. When push comes to shove the key heads of government will meet to 'agree a coordinated approach', while the individual fiscal managers will already have done what they damned well pleased, even if it meant beggaring thy neighbor (see Ireland's move to backstop all deposits, which has caused a stampede into Irish banks and a consequent selloff in Irish debt).

In an inversion of all we've known for five years, GOLD:EUR gold now looks profoundly bullish on weekly charts, even as GOLD:USD falls through multiple supports.

The ECB is a plodding one trick monetary pony, and eventually will begin to cut, and if that corresponds with a gold bottom at $750 - or better $650 - along with a worldwide IT bottom in stocks, then long gold and miners will be a massive trade, and Paulson can take his commodity smashdown and stick it up his ass.

Circle the poster on his third cup of coffee. :mellow:
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#342 The End

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Posted 06 October 2008 - 04:55 AM

Wait--I was only referring to the "10/8/2008" in the link description.

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I knew dat. :)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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