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#16 The End

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:15 PM

For the record. We could still go up to 870-880 and it would not phase me a bit. I don't think it's gonna happen but, Mr. market will do what ever it wants. Still short.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#17 longOnUranus

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:15 PM

if we break 1175 on the SPX, I go broke, not long. At least the way I'm positioned now. This triple bottom thingy reminds me of the Road Runner cartoon where Wylie Coyotte comes to a fork in the road, obeys the sign "turn left for Road Runner", does so, and gets slammed by an oncoming truck. Comes again to sign, turns left, slammed again. He comes to the sign a third time, snickers, goes right, and falls off a cliff.

We are now, I think, at that third sign. No one I know is suckered at all into this market anymore. Strictly for gamers and "riverboaters". When they fall off the cliff, party's over.

#18 brian4

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:21 PM

I almost heaved twice today the first was when the affable (read slimey) Snow man said " he didn't have a clue when he sold his 20 odd million shares of CSX-that the company was losing money) Ya rite-you were just the CEO-and your reward now is to be in charge of the nations money-Lovely just bloody lovely. Second was when Krudlow and an obviously under medicated Creamer-were taking turns kicking Greenspan in the crotch (nothing there anyway) because it was reported he doesn't agree with Sheriff Bush's economic plan-GAG! The markets went up but as Mark has alluded to feel weak and heavy-I sold my SPX puts this a.m.-yes all of them-at an overall profit and placed buy stop orders on them all for slightly less than I originally paid-and glory be they all got filled so I made some bucks and am still holding short it's a strategy that doesn't work all the time but when it does-you make money on an up move and remain short-you just have to be pretty damn certain the advance will continue and today it did. I see another 20 SPX points up move here-MAX that would be about it technically (plus or minus 10 points) but my gut tells me we don't get there-I just have this feeling that Bushie is going to put his foot in in tonite-and the public is going to realize all at once that the guy really thinks he is the marshall of Tombstone in 1870! Don't know weather or not you caught Joe Biden's speech ripping Shrub-but it was a dandy-about how the world works and how allies work and how it all matters. Like I said I got this baaaad feeling! Trade Safe!

#19 brian4

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:25 PM

Lou-you've got it figured it right-and Wylie is at the cliff-trade safe!

#20 brian4

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:42 PM

Forgot-one thing-if you take a daily 15 minute or 60 minute chart of the Dow or Spx-you will see the most wonnerful bear pennant formed on both of them-upward sloping yet-that pattern is resolved 70% of the time in a big drop to the dowside-we shall see- futures down hard SPX-4 below fair value-NDX-over 6-Trade Safe!

#21 Metamucil

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:45 PM

Internal rot continues without shame.

Up day for price; down for summations.
daily

daily


daily
neckline is at ~869; any move to or over it and I will continue shorting with both hands.


daily
neckline at ~977; shorting this relentlessly, too. break 977 and we retest the lows


The big picture.
NDX
monthly; TICKETS!


monthly SPX
best case for the bulls; inverted hammer with a bigger head


Short each and every rally. The 12 month cycles will soon enter the picture swinging...and the bounces will become more pitiful.
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#22 midnite lightning

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:50 PM

No nerve to go long. Only long on the qís for about another day.

Expect to see a jam tomorrow and the slide Thursday when they release the gdp. It should look like hell and reality will show no recovery in sight. Only a fantasy recovery!

Durable goods didnít look to good showing consumer is pulling back even more on big ticket items.

Consumer confidence is falling. This is da boyz biggest fear. No confidence no spending.

War is within 2-3 weeks based on my approximation.

Earnings look like hell. Yes, they beat them by a penny but they lowered the bar so damn low a one legged midget could jump over it. If you notice virtually all future outlooks are bleak. This is the news which is getting attention from the big boys and they are setting up for a power slide down.

Dow and spoos on my charts show virtually all red on the dailies and now the weeklies. They are in sync, pretty powerful signal down with momentum behind it.

Nazduck still has just a little more life, not much though.

The next 3-days will be very interesting. I think the window dressing this time will be sahran wrap.

Be careful and just say no!

CYA

#23 PileDriver

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:51 PM

for anyone playing 2x inverse index funds there might be a new trend developing where SPX will outperform NDX on the downside with less volatility/pain.

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#24 PileDriver

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:57 PM

I see no need to cover, hedge, or play a quickie dong.

#25 SkiddMarket

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:05 PM

Whatja think of SG's call for the Q's to drop to 24.7x at the close? It was 25 and a bit, and rising quickly when he made that call. I was a bit worried about my intricately constructed put ladder which was beginning to develop a bit of trouble (can you say Pool Ladder?), until that call. I'll sleep peacefully. OH... BTW- I got a message while I was deep in surgery today from Interactive Brokers- seems that my YG feb gold futures, since they weren't closed out before 2:30 today, will be liquidated in the morning. Some arcane fine print in the user agreement, three days before expiration, yadda yadda. Bleh. Wish they'd take my miners, instead. They can HAVE 'em.

Good luck tomorrow, folks. It's gonna be a nail-biter .

#26 Metamucil

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:05 PM

I see no need to cover, hedge, or play a quickie dong.

PD,

What do you make of this??
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#27

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:11 PM

Mousey Dung - our actor friend had watched the movie as part of his preparation. He said that the movie omitted a whole subplot involving the SERVANTS, who are astute observers of the foibles of the rich (and formerly rich) and give the play much of its "Upstairs-Downstairs" character.

The servants have been colorfully restored in the Lincoln Center production.

I didn't want to say it ML but, the movie did nothing for me. I wouldn't doubt for a nanosecond the play was better. They probably took a good play and made it into an MGM showcase for it's stars of the time as I believe all four of the above were MGM players.

#28 PileDriver

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:16 PM

I see no need to cover, hedge, or play a quickie dong.

PD,

What do you make of this??

only thing that says rally, but is not being confirmed by a high p/c ratio plus strong trending down market tends to negate its call. In the strong up market of late Oct it went deep bearish yet the market kept charging higher. I suspect the opposite is true now. I'm kind of ignoring it for now.

#29 Metamucil

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:28 PM

I see no need to cover, hedge, or play a quickie dong.

PD,

What do you make of this??

only thing that says rally, but is not being confirmed by a high p/c ratio plus strong trending down market tends to negate its call. In the strong up market of late Oct it went deep bullish yet the market kept charging higher. I suspect the opposite is true now. I'm kind of ignoring it for now.

The recent right shoulders have skewed lots of readings....as they should.

hourly DIA. badly divergent money flow.


neckline is ~82.5 DIA
daily

"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#30 machinehead

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 09:33 PM

"They probably took a good play [Dinner At Eight] and made it into an MGM showcase for it's stars of the time as I believe all four of the above were MGM players." - Mousey Dung

Precisely what our actor friend diagnosed ... that Sam Goldwyn had roped 'em all into it against their wills, and it showed in their performances.

Hey ... are you sitting on an unpublished screenplay, Mousey Dung?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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