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The Great Spectacle


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 05:23 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – January 28, 2003

After days of crying after sex, severe mood disorders, and a general emotional malaise, the stock market was able to have one good day.

How many more will we get? Three more? Remember, its tape painting season again, as the 27-year old fund managers, desperate to avoid 4 down years in a row, are throwing their measly cash reserves and borrowed funds into the options market, since they really don’t have enough to buy actual shares. How else can you explain a .60 put/call ratio most of the day? And given the general rise in the fear gauges, those calls are probably pretty cheap.

Yet another hysteria bounce as Da Boyz push in the suckers in advance of the State of the Union speech and the FEED meeting.

Anyway, I was surprised to see the indexes being pushed, yet so many individual stocks were dead in the water. Just your usual short squeezes in MRK pushing the Dow, couldn’t really tell what was pushing the Nasdaq, other than a morning squeeze on DELL. Note the lack of participation by the shrink wrapped Supermodels (aka NVLS, AMAT, KLAC).

And of course, the usual pushing and shoving of MMM, the highest weighted Dow component. Documented by the Color Commentator:

“Look at MMM. A favorite windjammer stock used to hoist the Dow DDD mammaries back up into their bra when selling gets 'overdone'. Note the severely negative MACD in this thing. Drug addled mutual funds think this All American issue can never fall. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rudy Guliani begin some late night T.V. pitches for it along the local Eastern seaboard. This chart looks like all those great stuffed Tech Pigs of 2001, remember those? The 'Never Die Young' issues? Once the HogMen begin a long move on the post nuclear tech terrain sometime midyear, this blue haired certificate could become another sequel to "The Poseidon Adventure". It is my understanding that Shelly Winters is still holding MMM. She believes it is a safe winner in this enviroment. Last I heard she was up in the ship's ornate ballroom with the rest of the crew and dancing the night away. Just hope she didn't forget to bring her fins and goggles.”

Not much else to report, other than the usual 3:00am futures jamming, the ongoing European Collapse, the chronic excuse of using Iraq as a scapegoat for all the Hysteria Financial Speculation Worldwide.

The constant pushing and promoting of blown up stocks. The never ending Matrix Spin to keep people in the market.

Isn’t it amazing that after 34 months of financial terrorism by C.N.B.C, Louis Rukeyser, Money Magazine, and Al Green that Joe Public still hasn’t sold?

Isn’t it amazing that the trillions of speculative capital remains locked in a vicious spiral of momentum chasing, spread trading, wild leveraging, unlimited hedging 10 layers deep?

What would Bernard Baruch or Jesse Livermore think of the insanity that runs 24/7 after the greatest speculative bubble of all time has popped?

Do you think that Livermore’s trading system would apply in the current environment of Alice in Repoland?

Remember the Panic of 1907 and the Crash of 1929? Both caused by an immediate disappearance of LIQUIDITY and CREDIT?

How would 1930 market historians view the present day Apocalypse, kept at bay from unlimited Repo Jamming, Multilevel Marketing Pyramiding, the most elaborate Ponzi Scheming of promises and guarantees?

Who would have ever believed that a market correction and credit contraction could be forestalled by 34 months of hockey stick liquidity creation, incessant intervention, higher and higher speeds on the Reliquifaction Blender, blind speculative acceleration inside the Atomic Particle Acellerator?

Nowhere else can you find a market which has fully discounted yet another “v-shaped miracle” in the 2nd half. A 5-day war in Iraq has now been discounted to 3-days or less. An immediate resuscitation of Venezuelan and Iraqi oil to drive oil prices down to $20. All terrorist activity will immediately cease because the U.N. “said so”. State and Federal budget deficits erased by future prosperity. All credit excesses will be earned away by the “Productivity Miracle” and “Personal Income Growth”.

Truly an incredible story. The Great Spectacle. Unlikely to be replicated in our lifetimes. The source of astonishment and bewilderment by future economists and credit market anal cysts.

Position Summary:

Shorts to be applied each day the jamming continues…..

Half short on CSCO at $14, ORCL at $12, DELL at $25,

Quarter short on CFC at $55

We are 53% short, 32% long, 15% cash.

Half Short:

MBI at $50
KLAC at $41
CYMI at $39
NVLS at $35
INTC at $18
MSFT at $56
WHR at $56
INTU at $49
AMGN at $53
CSCO at $14
ORCL at $12
DELL at $25

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
LEN at $56
COCO at $40
NCEN at $28
CFC at $55

Half Long:

GG at $11
HL at $4.55
BGO at $1.31
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
GSS at $1.72
WHT at $1.05
KGC at $2.35
HMY at $16
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#2 ConfusedAss

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 05:47 PM

RE: Senate confirmation hearings on Sec Of Tras nominee Snow. When questioned about dollar, he replied.

"I'm in favor of a strong dollar policy". Huh?

#3 ConfusedAss

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:00 PM

I posted this earlier today on Stoolsgold. Thought it would be relevant here too.

James Sinclair's take on weak mining share prices.

"So, in my opinion, the short of gold stocks culprit now is identified as Hedge funds and Hedge Operators long gold and short the shares. The interesting point is that these funds plan to sell gold between $372 and $386 into the Iraq invasion with a plan to cover the short gold stock on a gold bullion price pull back after the invasion."

http://www.financial...s/2003/0127.htm

#4 wndysrf

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:30 PM

No real money has left the market.

As usual, the Supermodels are getting HeatMapped in AH trading, after the X-Boxers got blown out of SINA, SOHU, NTES, CHINA, ASIA, and all the rest.

Always someone new to chase.

Always someone younger, better, different.

The wild chasing and speculating continues unabated.

What a joke.....
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#5 PileDriver

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:36 PM

Ah yes, same sh!t, different day:

http://www.sovereign...dates/index.cfm

Added more PMs today and more RYTPX with some new found money.

#6 ShamPoo

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:43 PM

Thank you Mark,

Listening to the NVLS call gives a glimpse at how this swill gets bid up. More interesting then the CEO’s line of stool are the questions asked by the “unbiased” analcysts.
Questions like: now that you’ve done so well and are positioned for great growth, do you think you are giving yourself enough credit?
Horse stool.
Damn Mark, copied you on CFC and CSCO. Hope we are on track.

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:43 PM

I was travelling last week and unfortunately didn't get a chance to pull the short trigger - this past weekend I was kicking myself for missing the biggest turn of the year, and today, I thank the market for giving me another chance to get on the short train, and all the stoolies for keeping me informed!

Loaded up by today's end - added to my retail shorts (LIN, COH, BBBY), picked up NCEN, and loaded up some some of the enterprise software names I mentioned: MERQ, CA, DCTM; the afterhour action on NVLS hopefully will extend an opportunity to grab some of the supermodel names tomorrow morning...

Wanted to share my 2 cents on two shorts:
-CA: company has a history of bad product, horrible customer service, and accounting scandals. Recent mgmt change appears that they are addressing investor confidence, but, once a thief, always a thief - essentially the same management team is running the company, Sanjay Kumar has been Wang's right-hand man, and look at his 2002 $12 million pay package, just outrageous! On the competitive landscape, it is clearly losing market share to IBM, and BMC remains strong competitor, not to mention numerous smaller, niche vendors offering way better product out there...I hope some the technical stoolies confirm the bearishness on this stock: my research indicates CA has a low pc ratio, the chart has a bearish divergence, and insiders have been selling like mad...great short?

- DCTM: a turnaround story in content mgmt software space, have managed '5 consecutive quarters of revenue growth' blah blah...today they announced another 'record' quarter: revenue $66 million, eps $.12, revenue yoy growth 30% and 17% sequential...everything looks great, right? But here is the catch: the eps number excludes a charge of $5.8 million, or roughly .11-.12 a share related to 2 recent acquisitions they made (they spent $150 mm buying a company called eRoom last quarter), but on the revenue side, guess what? They included a $4.2 million contributed from eRoom. So include the revenue to reflect the top line growth, but excludes charges on the acquisition to reflect bottom line profitability... the accounting gimmicks are so ridiculous! Oh btw, did I tell you DCTM also issued 7.7 million shares to acquire eRoom, of course those shares were NOT included in this quarter's EPS calculation (since the acquisition closed at about year-end). What a colossal fraud...Again, please one of you techies confirm - I think the chart looks pretty bearish, pcr standing at 0.89, insiders selling moderate to heavy...Plus the stock is overvalued on every matrix, p/rev, p/e. My target is $10 for this one.

Welcome any comments / criticism.

JM

#8 PileDriver

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:45 PM

BEAR trend intact

Aroon negative
DI- over DI+
ADX over 20 and rising

Shorts are favored. Short the rallies.

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 06:50 PM

DCTM down 6% afterhours! They can't fool everybody with the massaged numbers...

#10 machinehead

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 07:20 PM

"Isn’t it amazing that after 34 months of financial terrorism by C.N.B.C, Louis Rukeyser, Money Magazine, and Al Green that Joe Public still hasn’t sold?"

It is. Thirty-four months after the Sep. 1929 Bubble I top (in July 1932, that is), the public was busted flat and shit scared. Not this time.

A couple of weeks ago, my wife and I went to see the witty play "Dinner at Eight" at Lincoln Center. It was written in 1931, and first performed in 1932. The host of the dinner party is an "old boy" shipping magnate who, with the help of his social-climber wife, is attempting to maintain their upper-crust pretensions even as his company teeters toward bankruptcy. He's involved in the Caribbean trade, and slumping sugar prices are killing him (sound familiar?).

Another character is a former silent film and vaudeville actor, sliding into alcoholism, who imagines that he's still a great screen draw. His agent breaks the news to him that the new generation of film audiences has never heard of him. In response to his feelers about an $8,000 a week starring role, Hollywood responded that "we don't need any extras at this time." The dialogue is interrupted as the hotel manager pounds on the door to collect on the unpaid bill. Later, even the bellboy refuses to buy him any more bootleg whisky if he can't front the cash.

The star guests of the dinner party, an English lord and lady, cancel at the last minute and head for Florida. "Damned Cockneys!" the shipping magnate's wife rages.

Actually the only character not in deep financial trouble is a swaggering, loudmouthed Montana mining magnate (a kind of Bush-Cheney composite) who's about to head down to D.C. to accept a cabinet post in the Hoover administration. And he's scheming to get control of the foundering shipping line by buying out the cash-starved preferred stockholders with lowball offers.

After the show, we went backstage to visit an actor friend who plays one of the roles. He explained that quite a bit of dialogue had been cut to keep the performance under 3 hours. In the original play, a daughter was forced to sell a Park Avenue townhouse inherited from her parents, to raise cash. "Well, it'll keep her out of Harlem," cracked a jealous social competitor.

In the dot-com era of four years ago, this play would have had no resonance. It would not have been produced. This year, all half dozen of us backstage agreed that it was perfectly contemporary.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 07:50 PM

I've seen the movie with John Barrymore as the actor, Wallace Beery as the ship magnate and Billie Burke (the good witch of the East in "The Wizard of Oz") as his wife or was it Lionel Barrymore as the ship magate.

#12 machinehead

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:00 PM

Mousey Dung - our actor friend had watched the movie as part of his preparation. He said that the movie omitted a whole subplot involving the SERVANTS, who are astute observers of the foibles of the rich (and formerly rich) and give the play much of its "Upstairs-Downstairs" character.

The servants have been colorfully restored in the Lincoln Center production.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#13 wndysrf

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:02 PM

Attention Riverboaters:

Triple Bottom is in.

According to Lance Lewis' report tonight, the S & P 500 weighted in Euros just made a triple bottom off the July lows and the October lows.

That's why we might see some Keno Jamming from Europe, as the chart people dive in and try to catch the Triple Bottom, at the same time trying to catch a bounce in the U.S. Dollar when Bush announces a strong dollar policy.

So there you have it.

Anyone got the nerve to go long?
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#14 longOnUranus

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:03 PM

I think we'll make movies; assigning the blame to Enron, corrupt government officials, Iraq and white protestant day-traders shorting the market. Abundant credit for the masses? Nah, that wasn't the problem. Stupid politicans/bankers trying to please the electorate and engineer a soft landing? No way. Countries with gold-based currencies vs. fiat? What the f**k is that?

Like McCarthy, the Wild West and The Sixties, Hollywood can generally engineer, for future generations, a past which existed for few, if any, who actually lived it. This is the main reason history invariably repeats itself.

#15 The End

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Posted 28 January 2003 - 08:07 PM

Wndy,

At this point, I would NOT go long although, if we where to break 1175 on the spx, I might. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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