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#271 Peek Paper

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 08:00 PM

jickiss is back!
jickiss is back!...

... The First Thing Don L said to your jickiss is that the ENTIRE MONEY MANAGEMENT BUSINESS AND WALL STREET HAVE DELIBERATELY CONSTRUCTED VARIOUS INDICES WITH "SURVIVORSHIP BIAS." This is what Doc is cautious about. Once some POS is removed from the index, well, guess what? is it replaced by a Failing Firm?? No Way. This Bias distorts everything ...

Everything is suspect ...

My Econ 101 prof (1970) said the Dow was built to reflect the value of the top companies in the country, selected to represent the relative contributions of said companies on the American economy as a whole. As the economy evolved, so would the Dow ...

If indexes were illegal, what would everyone do? Investment companies would chose stock selections based on performance, and market said collections of stocks to the public as being superior to other companies.

These companies are still called Mutual Funds, I think :)

For the value of these companies' holdings to increase, others would need to buy the same stocks. Since J6P would be bludgeoned with Mutual Fund advertisements, the majority of investors would have their money in Mutual Funds. The result would be essentially non-competitive, because for one fund to go up, other funds similarly invested in the "key" stocks would go up also. The tide would raise all ships.

So, a defacto index of the most commonly held stocks would occur anyway. The narrower indexes simply perform what the "market" would - unfettered - perform by itself.

Since Mutual Funds are by nature inefficient investors of capital (fees + the above reason), indexes contribute to more efficient markets.

That's the theory, anyways ... :lol:
The deeper you dig into a pile of dung, the worse it smells ...

#272 jickiss

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 08:05 PM

jickiss is back!



jickiss is back!


and

Dear Lemur:

tanks for asking your jickiss about the GG Oct 08 options (callz, it is presumed)
here is a jickiss style response; to wit, da Master (Mr. Sinclair) has said that the smack down in the POG could possibly push back by 3 months the 1,250 gold advance price expected. This, of course, might imply March 09. The Oct 08 calls are therefore a bit risky, unless right in the money or at the money, and the direction stays up.

K-Wave has, of course, been fire-ing on all 12 cylinders lately, and seems a bit cautious. the charts are weak, but the reaction down has been Large! Even Norcini sees a shot at $840, thus the oct 08s are not a lay-up here, and the premiums are still rather large, it seems....

your jickiss would rather play the GG Jan 70s of 2010, around $1.70 or whatever, bot in size. Buy and hold a Jan 2010 of your choice. Put in 1/3 of your money on Monday morning at 10:45 am. Watch and wait, then buy the second tranche when the GG chart looks like a turn up is confirmed. the Last 1/3 goes in when you have a first correction at around $38 on GG common.

Then, Hold Fast for the ride.

The oct 08 could work big, but since your jickiss lost coin on K, INTC, CSCO, and AUY options this year, dealing in closer seems to be annoying. The naked shorting deals can hurt, but they can not touch the 2010 item.

Look seriously at the Jan 2010 Calls on GG.

your jickiss thinks that you will be very glad, and time goes faster than any of us think!

oops, Thimk!

regards, jickiss!!!!!!!
"Every Bubble ends in fear and panic. This one will too." --Machinehead, March 29, 2005

On September 06, 2006, TRE closed at $6.50.
On September 19, 2006, CDE closed at $46.30 (adjusted for reverse split)
.


On Oct. 17, '06, Goldman (GS) closed at $183.07 (jickiss Sell) whilst Newmont (NEM) closed at $43.24 (jickiss Buy).

"Politics in America has become a playground of fictions. The politicians tell the public what the public wants to hear. Whether the question is social security, education, budget deficits or national security, the public wants to believe that things aren�t so bad." --Written by J.R. Nyquist, December 8, 2006.

"Private sector employees will never retire, they will work literally to death, dying sick broke and busted with absolutely no hope whatsoever." -- Shorty, on March 15, 2009.

"Luck is the most precious commodity in the world." Brisbane Bear, October 25, 2007.

"Luck favors the prepared mind." Mr. James Dines, back in the 80s, in "The Dines Letter."

"With Luck, anything is Possible, but without Luck, virtually nothing Good ever happens." --- The jickiss Mantra, sad but True.

#273 Lemur

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 08:21 PM

jickiss is back!
jickiss is back!
and

Dear Lemur:

tanks for asking your jickiss about the GG Oct 08 options  (callz, it is presumed)
here is a jickiss style response; to wit, da Master (Mr. Sinclair) has said that the smack down in the POG could possibly push back by 3 months the 1,250 gold advance price expected.  This, of course, might imply March 09.  The Oct 08 calls are therefore a bit risky, unless right in the money or at the money, and the direction stays up.

K-Wave has, of course, been fire-ing on all 12 cylinders lately, and seems a bit cautious.  the charts are weak, but the reaction down has been Large!  Even Norcini sees a shot at $840, thus the oct 08s are not a lay-up here, and the premiums are still rather large, it seems....

your jickiss would rather play the GG Jan 70s of 2010, around $1.70 or whatever, bot in size.  Buy and hold a Jan 2010 of your choice.  Put in 1/3 of your money on Monday morning at 10:45 am.  Watch and wait, then buy the second tranche when the GG chart looks like a turn up is confirmed.  the Last 1/3 goes in when you have a first correction at around $38 on GG common.

Then, Hold Fast for the ride.

The oct 08 could work big, but since your jickiss lost coin on K, INTC, CSCO, and AUY options this year, dealing in closer seems to be annoying.  The naked shorting deals can hurt, but they can not touch the 2010 item. 

Look seriously at the Jan 2010 Calls on GG.

your jickiss thinks that you will be very glad, and time goes faster than any of us think!

oops, Thimk!

regards, jickiss!!!!!!!

View Post



Thanks Jickiss. I was looking at a rebound in the next few weeks from this deeply Dover Sole level. One of the TA techs I read has indicators going back to 1980 that indicate we are in the top 0.005% of Dover Sole extremes for the gold stocks.

Normally, prices can rebound sharply from these levels on a weekly timeframe. Re:2010 -I had not considered such long term calls but will have a look at the prices tomorrow. GG does seem to be at bargain prices now.

#274 roxy

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 10:01 PM

Kick who out of Congress?

People keep responding to me as if I am talking about the sex even though I have explained it every which way but up that that's NOT WHAT IT IS ABOUT.

Sheesh

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Sorry :-) When I read 10 messages in a row on a topic I'm getting to forget who exactly I want to answer.

#275 4shzl

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 10:16 PM

All I know is I'm buying a truckload of USO calls a few days after crude dives following the "peacefull" settelment of the above conflict.

Russia has nothing to lose and everything to gain by prolonging this conflict as long as possible. The BTC pipeline is a thorn is their side, fostering the illusion of economic independence for the breakaway southern republics. The longer its operation (and proposed natural gas expansion) is disrupted by turmoil, the sooner the prodigal children of the southern tier will realize that they have been conned by the NeoCons, abandon their silly NATO dreams, and resume their proper place among the piss-loving pipples of the Russian motherland.

All of this, of course, is not good news for the "Zionist entity" with its 1000+ "advisors" in Georgia and its heavy dependence on oil shipped via the BTC. So the the question is: are they gonna "take it outside?"

Wouldn't want to be chort Big Earl if they do, would you?

:ph34r: :o :ph34r:
The problem with Californians is that they think that death is optional. -- Aldous Huxley

The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us. -- Paul Valéry

#276 Drano

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 10:38 PM

Funny how Russia can attack another country's oil pipeline and it all comes back to be blamed on Israel. What a crock.
I purposely said nothing when the earlier comments about Israel were posted, hoping that this can of worms would stay unopened, but this is too ridiculous to let pass.
Of course I'm caustic!

#277 roxy

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 10:52 PM

Georgia's pipeline prevents Russia from control of much of the oil going to Europe (in other words prevents Russia from having a monopoly on oil flow). RodgerDodger at Traders Talk has advanced the theory that it would be very easy for Russia to bomb the pipeline, and the announcement that they attacked it and "missed" was a threat for the U.S. and others to let Russia do as it wishes in Georgia, or else the pipeline WILL be destroyed. Makes sense to me.

It all comes down to oil. According to my local newspaper, there are only 70,000 people in the contested region of South Ossetia.

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Even more important than oil. There is a future project of gas pipe from Turkmenistan, threatening the russian monopoly on gas to Europe. Russian plan is to just buy all the gas from Turkmens themselves.

#278 roxy

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:01 PM

:lol:  :lol:

The chances of Georgia joining NATO were in the vicinity of zero to none even before the war. Most EU countries didn't look very interested in letting a country with an open conflict with Russia into NATO. Russia is fast becoming an important consumer market for EU big corp and is of course a major source of energy.

Things still heating up: "United States has accused Russia of a heavy handed military response and Ukraine has warned it may block Russian ships from returning to Crimean naval bases"

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Yeah, they already blocked the sea with bubble gum, surely will jam the motors.

#279 roxy

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:07 PM

:huh:

Ummm... you apparently know more than the collective heads of state of NATO, who declared in April in Bucharest after their most recent NATO Summit:
Para. 23 = Utterly Unambiguous

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The vote on new member must be a consensus. I've read that France and [someone else] were (a week ago) not against Georgia, but still would not vote for it. After Friday Georgia just doesn't fit the requirement to not have any territorial problems. This is why Russia will never accept if South Assetia will ask to join it. This way the Georgia's territorial problem would be gone.

#280 mdporter

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:07 PM

See www.faceintel.com for how Intel its treats its employees. How many other companies have a support group for traumatized employees who used to work there?. I can vouch for the fact that Intel treats its employees particularly badly. Ultimately, a company that does this won't be successful long term. Eventually the charts will reflect this.

Meanwhile, first signs of a EURUSD bounce on the radar screen.

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the faceintel guy has been around for a long time, since at least 2000 I think.

meanwhile intel continues to produce top notch processors.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

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#281 roxy

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:10 PM

The way the Russians are waging the war is a big "f*** you" to the west. The reaction of the west up to now has been similar to its first reaction in former Yugoslavia. You know, the "both sides are to blame" and "we call for a cease-fire" crap. That is diplomatic language for "go ahead, we will not do anything to stop you". Maybe next week we will see the first symbolic sanctions being imposed on Russia.

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It's all will be over next week, too late for any sanctions. All fighting is about to stop.

#282 4shzl

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:16 PM

Funny how Russia can attack another country's oil pipeline and it all comes back to be blamed on Israel. What a crock.
I purposely said nothing when the earlier comments about Israel were posted, hoping that this can of worms would stay unopened, but this is too ridiculous to let pass.

View Post

Not sure where the idea of "blame" comes from. Israel is a party at interest to the conflict and a player with significant capabilities and options. Speculation about the dramatic actions it might take are common in the mainstream and decidedly pro-Israeli press (see today's NYTimes).
Maybe you should direct your indignation toward the Sulzbergers. :D
The problem with Californians is that they think that death is optional. -- Aldous Huxley

The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us. -- Paul Valéry

#283 Peek Paper

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:36 PM

One last comment about indexes. As the world competitively devalues it's principal currencies, the dollar index will become a trading vehicle only.

Gold and, to a lesser extent, silver, crude, corn, wheat and orange juice, will be the "indexes" of note. The Gold Standard, if you will.

Even with silver in the $15's, I'm having a hard time finding Johnson-Matthey and Englehardt 100 oz. bars for less than $19. The physical (bullion) premium vs. spot deserves it's own index.

GLD and SLV will keep the prices down until the public realizes it wants the real McCoy. For silver, it's already decoupling.
The deeper you dig into a pile of dung, the worse it smells ...

#284 Charmin

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:39 PM

How many people know oil is still strong $115 and above?

The Adens do - http://www.kitco.com.../aden/aden.html
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#285 roxy

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Posted 10 August 2008 - 11:45 PM

People say that Edvards is sent as Dems envoy to Ossetia. That will help to keep journalists concentrated.





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