I don't know why we shouldn't already be conditioned to expect a panic low and VIX at least up above 30.
The pigmen probably already know Dow 10,600 is in the cards. My two special babes - The Aden Sisters - "project Dow declining to 10,000 level or lower." http://www.marketwat...E-A42C41661F20}
"The Adens point to a semi-log chart of the Dow since 1982. They write: "Note that it's been in a solid uptrend since then, but now the Dow is breaking below this 26-year uptrend ... the Dow's percentage growth is changing. That is, the booming stock market days since 1982 are over and if the Dow were to eventually retrace 50% of its huge bull market rise from 1982 to 2007, then it could theoretically drop to near the 7,500 level, which would be similar to the bear market drop in 1974"
Ladies and germs, I'm proud to announce that Oil prices are setting up nicely so far, for a big fall.
"Fifteen of 24 anal cysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 63 percent, said prices will rise through July 18, the most bullish response since December 2006. Five of the respondents, or 21 percent, said oil will drop and four forecast little change. Last week 54 percent said futures would increase. "
once again, i'm looking to the past to try to get a read on the current mockit.
since the mockit peaked in may 2008, we've had about eight weeks of choppy declines. which eight-week period in 2000-2001 most resembles the one we just had?
the best candidate, to my eyes, seems to be the decline starting in may 2001. that lasted about sixteen whipsaw-laden weeks, though from a bird's eye perspective it looks mostly orderly--until it tumbled over a cataract after the 9/11 tragedy.
the pattern of the decline in feb & march 2001 roughly resembles a compressed version of dec 2007 to mar 2008. one could also argue that the feb 2001 slide, despite being only three weeks long, looks a lot like the may-july 2008 slide, especially when considering the morphology of the preludes to both periods.
of course patterns might not repeat at all. they might not even rhyme. but ye olden charts can at least offer some ideas about what could happen in the present--especially if you've stared so long at the fartcallness of it all that you begin to see sh!t that's not there.
"GE announced today second quarter 2008 earnings from continuing operations of $5.4 billion with $.54 per share, which was flat year-over-year from second quarter 2007. Second quarter revenues from continuing operations were $46.9 billion, up 11%. “Led by double-digit segment profit growth in our industrial businesses and a strong relative performance in our financial services businesses, we delivered a solid quarter in a volatile environment,” GE Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt said."
I'll give that one a golf clap, a bear golf clap nonetheless.
seriously, thanks for the fed report, doc. you asked a while back for some feedback on the pro services. i, personally and but representing the children of south africa and other such planets and whatnot, subscribe to the stocks and metals bundle; didn't spring for the fed report because i already knew, from what i'd read on the board, that that stuff flies way above my skull, and just absorbing the stocks and metals info is usually enough to keep me outta trouble.
I subscribe to the PE Complete, and highly recommend the Fed report. While it was miles over my head also when I first subscribed, I learned it by reading and studying it every day. The value in it (IMO) lies in following the market liquidity. All I care about on a chart is price and volume as I try to follow the money flow into or out of sectors, industries and stocks. The money flow starts and stops with the Fed and FCB's. This information is invaluable for trading.
A perfect example of how this report can benefit your trading is highlighted by my bone-headed failure to go long during the last rally attempt. I tried buying stocks when Doc's market liquidity graph was falling off a cliff. Those that were following the market liquidity and were waiting to short stocks made money. My losses serve to validate the reliability of Doc's market liquidity chart. In other words, don't bet against it! ...and whatnot
If we don't change our direction, we're likely to end up where we are headed.
It wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark.
"and the vicious cycle will feed on itself in an orgy of cannibalistic self destruction until even the skeletal remains of the system are ground into powder." - Doc, 3/2/09