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Teetering On The Edge


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#16 PileDriver

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 07:07 PM

To all you Perma-bulls on Crapvision

Yes, another KA-CHING day!

Hey Mark, looks like your girlfriend decided to fix-up your apartment instead of trashing it while you were away over the weekend windsurfing...phew! :lol:

#17 The End

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 07:25 PM

International bonds of the highest quality and intermediate maturities.

Don't follow me, I am a dumbass :blink:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#18 Metamucil

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 07:26 PM

Fewer more beautiful sites than an inverted hammer on the monthly and no way can 'they' morph it into some other implement; a good bounce will be ANOTHER GIFT, if it materializes......which I think it will; daily vix, indices, cpc all stretching their boinginger bands.

monthly


daily

"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#19 BigWave

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:04 PM

Tanks TE.

I was just starting to research high quality intl. bond funds.

You're right- this is the best damn site on the web. :grin:

#20 thisaintthebottom

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:10 PM

The End
or others

how are you legging into intl bonds
i am using begbx but too euro based i think australia
and mineral rich nations like South Africa seem best, these
countries will have bonds that survive should a meltdown happen

How can i buy australia bonds which funds or SA's

thx

#21 brian4

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:17 PM

Now that was a real SLOBBERNOCKER wasn't it-yup I ran up and down my ladder and to those who don't believe in options or ladders i got one word for ya-KA CHING! This move is the ONE where you make money and salt it away! -At the bottom (probably in March) don't expect a big bounce-but rather several weeks of grinding sideways. Let's talk about 3rd waves for a minute-they are very different-END is right in saying we could have a small bounce and if we do I agree with his numbers BUT 3rd waves often just keep relentlessly grinding lower-now someone posted that they couldn't understand why Bonds dropped with the market well in a typical 3rd wave both bonds and stocks drop together leaving the investor no where to HIDE! To give you an idea where we are going in 87 the VIX topped slightly over a 100 and probably will this time-the p/c ratio closed today at 1.02 but the 10 day average is .77 so this thing is really not even in gear yet. If we get a rally of some sort-sell it-probably it will be an ABC of short duration and I sure as hell wouldn't play it long unless you have a death wish. I note that futures right now are below fair value and yes it's early but so far it's signalling continuation. Gold stocks dropped as well today BUT for the first time in the last 20 years the spot price closed higher than the front month which is February-this means backwardation is complete and buyers want the metal NOW-today-not a promise of delivery down the road-this should mean a big spike in the spot price-we shall see. And yes I was kidding at the start of my post-if you don't use options or ladders fine use what works for you I won't knock your methods don't knock mine. I agree with a point made over the weekend that options are not for novices but novices shouldn't be trading period. I had an e mail from a novice stoolie today-I answered his questions as best I could-suggested some reading material and told him to start paper trading-this is certainly not a market for widows and orphans-that trade Safe moniker of mine is true I am a very careful trader but i also have been doing this for 30 years so i can get away with the esoteric stuff. Make Coin and Trade Safe!

#22

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:18 PM

The waffling in the afternoon made it difficult to see what was going on cyclically as it was occurring, but in retrospect it was clearly a swup, in not only the 1 day wave, but probably the 3 day cycle was well. That implies more downside dead ahead, although it is hard to tell whether it will be tomorrow, or after a few more days of swupping.

Doc wrote this in the 4:15 stooltrading comment. I felt a little better because at the close I too felt a bit confused as to what was coming. I have made two additions to my initial short position made on the 10th and want to make a third but, while I literally had the trading menu up and ready for the last ten minutes of the session, could not pull the trigger. Still looking for a pop that will tell me that is the pop and it's down to the next level from here.

#23 The End

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:20 PM

I don't know. Give me a day. OK?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#24 The End

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:31 PM

B4,

One of the best posts i've read by you.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#25

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:34 PM

Yea B4,
Great post. I always learn alot about options reading your posts even though they are not for me. Your takes on the market landscape on any particular day is definitely helpful to what I play. To each his own as the saying goes.

#26 microdon

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:35 PM

One way to invest in unhedged high quality short/intermediate foreign bonds, particularly those of commodity based countries like New Zeland, Australia, Canada is with a no load foreign bond fund like American Century International Bond Fund. I first bought it under $10; last April I added more under 10.40. Currently around 12.60; and that is after a .23 distribution. Total return last year was about 23%. It is one of the few bond funds up this year. Unlike dollar bond funds, which are probably headed into a bear market, this one has the quality and average maturity (3-5 years) to weather a coming general erosion in bond prices affecting much longer maturities. It has pretty much gone up by about the same amount as the dollar index has gone down. So if you are looking for still further erosion in the dollar, a few dollars here might make sense. :)

#27 EasyAl

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:36 PM

IS a nearly $1 billion hedge fund on Park Avenue in financial hot water?

That's the worry confronting investors in the Lancer Offshore Fund - the subject of some critical recent coverage in this space - as the news spread last week that the fund is undergoing a severe, and intensifying, liquidity squeeze.

Confronted with what the fund itself calls "unprecedented" redemption demands that are "tantamount to a run on the bank" from its own investors, the Lancer folks were busy last week explaining that the fund's shareholders wouldn't be getting their money back in cash. Instead, payment would be coming in the form of shares in a specially created new fund - this one with a portfolio containing a portion of the same illiquid stocks from the current fund's portfolio.

One immediate concern is how far the ripples will spread, as banks and other creditors that may have extended loans secured by the fund's shares begin to wonder whether the collateral they're holding is worth what they thought. A Lancer lawyer describes the fund's investors as including "prestigious domestic and international public pensions and endowments."



Another Hedge Fund in Trouble

#28 PileDriver

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 08:39 PM


IS a nearly $1 billion hedge fund on Park Avenue in financial hot water?

That's the worry confronting investors in the Lancer Offshore Fund - the subject of some critical recent coverage in this space - as the news spread last week that the fund is undergoing a severe, and intensifying, liquidity squeeze.

Confronted with what the fund itself calls "unprecedented" redemption demands that are "tantamount to a run on the bank" from its own investors, the Lancer folks were busy last week explaining that the fund's shareholders wouldn't be getting their money back in cash. Instead, payment would be coming in the form of shares in a specially created new fund - this one with a portfolio containing a portion of the same illiquid stocks from the current fund's portfolio.

One immediate concern is how far the ripples will spread, as banks and other creditors that may have extended loans secured by the fund's shares begin to wonder whether the collateral they're holding is worth what they thought. A Lancer lawyer describes the fund's investors as including "prestigious domestic and international public pensions and endowments."



Another Hedge Fund in Trouble

within the year its going to be:

"Another Money Market Fund in trouble".

That's when you really hit the deck. Its just a matter of time.

#29 summoner

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 09:09 PM

Scary
Just home from my first day back at work and after hugging the kids first thing I do is check stooltown. Good to see everyone in great spirits and making coin....cant believe after waiting months for this I closed my spx puts too soon..didnt even follow my own advice...let the winners run! Still short C and JPM, will reload GFI when the hourly turns up and was able to short AMGN today ...breaking down out of its ascending wedge...EBAY to crumble soon...TRADE SAFE and congrats to fellow stoolies
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#30 wndysrf

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Posted 27 January 2003 - 09:18 PM

Troubles in London documented here:


London Troubles
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!





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