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IDS World Markets Fri 7th March 08


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#31 stevieo

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:30 AM

How about opinion?

In my opinion, the Fed has their hands full trying to keep the capital destruction from spreading. This move is about the Fed responding to the failed margin calls more than some bad jobs number. They probably stay a tight wad.

Maybe they also have a deal to manage the Euro down. I think the dollar is the reason they're tight. I believe they worked out with the foreign holders--inflate and they dump, so they're staying tight. I don't think they need to facilitate the creation of more money. The Treasury will do that with all their new debt, and a ton more will come back from recycling all the dollars we exported for decades. The key for them is to manage the dollar dump.

All of this is just pure guess work on my part.

#32 Mies van der Rump

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:30 AM

Non-Farm decline of 63,000 vs. Expectations of even.

Worst since 2003.

December '07 originally +83,000 revised to +41,000. January revised to -21,000.

#33 DrStool

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:31 AM

Fed announcement triggers market panic--
http://www.federalre...y/20080307a.htm

Dow drops 100 points on the announcement.

Financial Authorities Panicking.

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#34 DrStool

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:33 AM

Payrolls down 63,000

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#35 Mies van der Rump

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:38 AM

These employment numbers are just atrocious...economy has a serious case of the runs.

Would have preferred this start green today. The Working Group will be in full force today.

#36 DrStool

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:40 AM

Broadening the types of crap collateral they will accept.  Hoover it all up Bennie.

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Wherever you got that from, it's not correct.

It's funny, but since the Fed introduced the TAF people have been repeating this over and over and over. It's one of those lies that people accept as truth because people keep repeating it. It just keeps going around and around the web.

Well, it's just not true.

So let me repeat.

It's not true. The Fed nowhere, no how, no way, anywhere, ever has stated that it will accept a broader range of collateral than what it would always accept at the Discount Window. THey HAVE made the statement that they would accept the same collateral that would be accepted at the Discount Window. And that is basically, everything that meets sound collateral tests. And, in fact, loans made via the TAF are required to be 50% overcollateralized. The Fed is therefore NOT accepting "crap collateral".

They are also accepting the exact same type of collateral at the expanded term repo operations. Treasuries, Agencies, and MBS. Same as always. No difference.

The Fed owns only Treasuries in its own portfolio. Unlike other central banks, they have never bought Agencies or MBS. The own only Treasuries.

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#37 fxfox

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:42 AM

Dow at 11920 right now
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#38 stevieo

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:42 AM

"Second, beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion."

Maybe they pump, but I'm taking this with a grain of salt. Is this how they help roll over those treasuries? Or maybe they take it away from somewhere else, like they did with the taffy. Hmm.. Have to look at those total Fed holdings--aren't they down something like $20B?

#39 DrStool

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:44 AM

wonder if we get a V bottom here? :huh:

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#40 DrStool

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:46 AM

"Second, beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion."

Maybe they pump, but I'm taking this with a grain of salt. Is this how they help roll over those treasuries? Or maybe they take it away from somewhere else, like they did with the taffy. Hmm.. Have to look at those total Fed holdings--aren't they down something like $20B?

View Post



This sounds like they intend it as a net add. We'll have to see if they redeem Treasuries and cut back on shorter term repos as they did to offset the first $60 billion in TAF.

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#41 Mies van der Rump

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:46 AM

Wherever you got that from, it's not correct.

It's funny, but since the Fed introduced the TAF people have been repeating this over and over and over. It's one of those lies that people accept as truth because people keep repeating it.  It just keeps going around and around the web.

Well, it's just not true.

So let me repeat.

It's not true. The Fed nowhere, no how, no way, anywhere, ever has stated that it will accept a broader range of collateral than what it would always accept at the Discount Window. THey HAVE made the statement that they would accept the same collateral that would be accepted at the Discount Window. And that is basically, everything that meets sound collateral tests. And, in fact, loans made via the TAF are required to be 50% overcollateralized. The Fed is therefore NOT accepting "crap collateral".

They are also accepting the exact same type of collateral at the expanded term repo operations. Treasuries, Agencies, and MBS. Same as always. No difference.

The Fed owns only Treasuries in its own portfolio. Unlike other central banks, they have never bought Agencies or MBS. The own only Treasuries.

View Post


Touche!! And thank you:

Second, beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion. These transactions will be conducted as 28-day term repurchase (RP) agreements in which primary dealers may elect to deliver as collateral any of the types of securities--Treasury, agency debt, or agency mortgage-backed securities--that are eligible as collateral in conventional open market operations. As with the TAF auction sizes, the Federal Reserve will increase the sizes of these term repo operations if conditions warrant.


http://www.federalre...y/20080307a.htm

#42 Slappy

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:48 AM

8:30 gold smackdown . .. .... CHECK.

Posted Image


I have this huge urge to get out on this mornings market gapdown.

But this whole system is so screwed right now that there has to be a huge capitulation coming and I'd hate to miss it after all this.


Trade safe Stoolies.

#43 fxfox

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:53 AM

just took half of the Dow short from this morning off the table, let the other half run
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#44 Peek Paper

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:54 AM

But this whole system is so screwed right now that there has to be a huge capitulation coming and I'd hate to miss it after all this.

Yup. Physical only ... no ETF's or equities. Maybe CEF, but not a whole lot. Something convertible to bullion.

Haven't quite figured out how to hold physical uranium. The neighbors will complain.

And my wheat pile is starting to ferment.
The deeper you dig into a pile of dung, the worse it smells ...

#45 bearmarketymark

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Posted 07 March 2008 - 09:58 AM

What's News from WSJ--first 7 stories on WSJ online

Weak Jobs Data Add to Fears
Problems Mount for Carlyle
Housing, Bank Troubles Deepen
Futures Stall: Paryrolls in Focus
Collateral Call Goes Unanswered
Regulators Push the Banks

I am surprised we won't be opening 100 points higher.





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