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Rally That Fools The Majority


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#1 DrStool

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 04:56 PM

Well, apparently it was just time. Bear market rallies are vicious, and tend to last 3-6 weeks. They are designed to suck all the bulls back in and force the bears to cover their shorts so that market insiders can get short in size for the next leg down.

As Granville said so well, the rally that fools the majority.

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#2 Bungster

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:14 PM

Yep, but yesterday the pigmen left their fingerprints on the murder weapon... :rolleyes:

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#3 Dr.Correll

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:15 PM

i probably should have sold my global mutual funds into this rally but hopefully for my sake we are going higher for the short term. Then i might stab a few of those 2x inverse china funds like FXP.

 


#4 DrStool

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:17 PM

One of the biggest factors was simply time. As of yesterday the 13 week cycle low was 6 days overdue. That was one of the reasons I was so aggressive about covering shorts over the past few days. By Monday AM we were down to just one, and I will stick with that one unless it violates trend resistance.

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#5 DrStool

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:18 PM

as we have discussed before, the double funds need to be traded.

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#6 mdporter

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:35 PM

The last time the financial media called for rate cuts, the Fed granted them. Will this time be any different? mob rule for the pigsters.
The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#7 linrom

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:36 PM

The trend line from 2003 is still intact and unlike many stocks this one never broke down. It's now coiling up for a big move. The impetus could be falling corn prices?

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#8 Sudaca

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:47 PM

Someone's been reading the Stool... ;)

Libor feels strain as year-end looms

By Michael Mackenzie in London

Published: November 28 2007 16:42 | Last updated: November 28 2007 16:42

The baton of tension in the money market will pass to one-month paper on Thursday as the countdown to year-end funding pressures enters its final four weeks.

Starting Thursday, one-month dollar and euro London Interbank Offered Rates, will cover the year-end turn that occurs on December 31, and as such, Libor is expected to surge.

Libor is an offered rate, a level at which banks lend to each other. In the present situation, traders report a distinct reluctance among banks to lend beyond a one-week period and say conditions are approaching the levels of stress seen back in September when the credit squeeze initially flared.

People are waiting for the day of reckoning, said George Goncalves, anal cyst at Morgan Stanley.

http://www.ft.com/cm...00779fd2ac.html
Thanks, David

#9 Mies van der Rump

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:55 PM

E-mail update i get from a CDO/Securitization research firm:

London-based asset manager Cheyne Capital is planning to transfer assets from its troubled $7 billion Cheyne Finance structured investment vehicle into a new vehicle as part of a deal to stave off realizing substantial losses in the short term.

This was one of the players Wells holds (or maybe held, now) paper from in their Master Trust for their MMF's.

#10 bondtrader

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 05:55 PM

The trend line from 2003 is still intact and unlike many stocks this one never broke down. It's now coiling up for a big move. The impetus could be falling corn prices?

adm.png

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nice chart...

#11 Sudaca

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 06:03 PM

Tough to see, but they did tick up today:

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Thanks, David

#12 Mies van der Rump

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 06:08 PM

LOL...just noticed the dunce cap

#13 mdporter

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 06:11 PM

Huge bounces in FRE and FNM

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The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars, the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. -- H.L. Mencken

"Only a man who knows what it is like to be defeated can ... come up with the extra ounce of power it takes to win." - Muhammad Ali

"When plunder has become a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -- Claude Frédéric Bastiat

#14 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 06:15 PM

I've been watching this chart for days and saw this coming.
I'm ashame to say i didn't act when the break occur.

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Stop the Madness

#15 4shzl

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Posted 28 November 2007 - 06:17 PM

``Commercial real estate is a full-blown bubble that feels very much at a bursting point,'' said Christian Stracke, an anal cyst in London at CreditSights Inc., a fixed-income research firm. ``There's a fairly toxic mix of factors at work.''

The cost of derivatives protecting investors from defaults on the highest-rated bonds backed by properties more than doubled in the past month, according to Markit Group Ltd. Prices suggest traders anticipate defaults rising to the highest level since the Great Depression, according to anal cysts at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

The seven-year rally in offices and retail properties ended in September when prices fell an average of 1.2 percent, according to Moody's Investors Service. Banks worldwide are holding $54 billion of unsold commercial mortgages, according to data compiled by New York-based Citigroup Inc. that includes fixed and floating-rate debt.

Glumberg

It's not the unsold paper I'd be worried about, but the the stuff that's been spun into CDOs and then leveraged to the hilt. As this stuff goes bad, credit will only get crunchier. :ph34r:
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The folly of mistaking a paradox for a discovery, a metaphor for a proof, a torrent of verbiage for a spring of capital truths, and oneself for an oracle, is inborn in us. -- Paul Valéry





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