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IDS World Markets Tues 13th November 07


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#31 dogsie

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:23 AM

You wrote that the market is not SHORT term tradable, with SHORT in all caps. If that wasn't your point, you sure could have fooled me. It was a ridiculous statement. 

I just feel that trying to game the news is a waste of time. Yeah, there are some things that can be obviously faded, but typically only in conjunction with the charts. There's just no point in trying to figure out what news is going to have what impact.

On the other hand, we have building incontrovertible evidence of a collapse in liquidity. Each bit of evidence builds the case that the market will reflect that over time. It has no choice.

In the meantime, WSE Pro subscribers know that there's a major liquidity event this week that has a significant likelihood of impacting the market today and tomorrow. They are not in the dark and they will not be in the least bit surprised by what the market does in response to this event. They also have guidance from the cycle analysis at what point in time there's some likelihood of a low developing for this move.

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Short term, to me, is something of immediate impact. I guess I feel any position held overnight is intermediate term. (I very recently also starting to think that any position held from the morning to the afternoon is intermediate term with the dual nature of the market the past week and the moving away from the typical ramp into the close.)

For instance, a Fed decision is short term tradeable. There is an instant reaction. It is something that is in the front of the brain. Another example is that of a bank announcing a write-down. That may have an immediate impact on that company's stock, but does not permeate into the broader market. There is a lag in its value as an indicator for the broader market.

The break the buck example is more like a cock roach in the financial framework. Where there is one, there likely are ten more. It is an indicator that something is wrong, but unless someone is scared of roaches, it is no reason to immediately react. The immediate reaction is to me short term. The indicator that there are cock roaches in the house is an intermediate term indicator.

I will learn and adapt from your comment and that from my daughter with her comment about my text messaging. I will no longer capitalize except at the beginning of sentences and for proper nouns.

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The short term trading you are referring to, reacting to an event is almost impossible to anyone other than those who have an instant connection to the exchange and have lightening reflexes. I think most would describe the short term as to trade moves lasting a day or two that respond to reactions to certain levels being tagged.based on the charts.
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. Abraham Lincoln
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it George Santayana

#32 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:24 AM

Looking like today may be bounce day....as I said last  night, we were very over done short term on NQ....would expect the NAZ rally to peter out somewhere between 2060-2100 area, if it does indeed get up a head of steam today.


Gold also gettin' a pop with indexes, if she breaks above 810, could see 820-25 area....back below 805 and she has more work to do downside...

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Kwave,

I closed my YG (Dec. Gold) short earlier this morning at 803 for 40+ points.
Looking to reload at about 826-830.

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#33 K Wave Rider

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:27 AM

The break the buck example is more like a cock roach in the financial framework.  Where there is one, there likely are ten more.  It is an indicator that something is wrong, but unless someone is scared of roaches, it is no reason to immediately react.  The immediate reaction is to me short term.  The indicator that there are cock roaches in the house is an intermediate term indicator.


OK, I see what you're talking about now.

Yeah, these bubbles and collapses definitely take time, a lot more than most can imagine. They key is to recognize when the worm has turned, and start gearing your trading in that direction. It it starting to appear that the worm has finally turned here. We may know quite a bit more by the end of this week.

#34 cwd

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:27 AM

I have called etrade 22 times now...They hang up on me every single time.(after making me hold 20 minutes each time)

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One thought, you might put your money is the short 1-3 treasury ETF. SHY which shouldn't move much and it will be there when they move the accounts. Anybody else have any thoughts on that? :unsure:

#35 K Wave Rider

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:29 AM

Looking like today may be bounce day....as I said last  night, we were very over done short term on NQ....would expect the NAZ rally to peter out somewhere between 2060-2100 area, if it does indeed get up a head of steam today.


Gold also gettin' a pop with indexes, if she breaks above 810, could see 820-25 area....back below 805 and she has more work to do downside...

View Post


Kwave,

I closed my YG (Dec. Gold) short earlier this morning at 803 for 40+ points.
Looking to reload at about 826-830.

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Sounds about right..I am long the Yella Dog here for da pop...let's see how far it gets...

#36 Drano

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:30 AM

I have called etrade 22 times now...They hang up on me every single time.(after making me hold 20 minutes each time)

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One thought, you might put your money is the short 1-3 treasury ETF. SHY which shouldn't move much and it will be there when they move the accounts. Anybody else have any thoughts on that? :unsure:

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Good idea. Then if he opens an account with another brokerage and has them transfer it, THEY will be the ones on the phone screaming at Etrade.
Of course I'm caustic!

#37 DrStool

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:31 AM

Facing collapse, would those in charge prefer a deflationary collapse, or a hyperinflationary collapse. I would bet the former. Most are betting otherwise, I think.

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#38 K Wave Rider

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:34 AM

Facing collapse, would those in charge prefer a deflationary collapse, or a hyperinflationary collapse.  I would bet the former. Most are betting otherwise, I think.

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Gold above 850 or not may be the tell.....

#39 DrStool

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:36 AM

qqqq 5 hr cycle projection now 49.55.

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#40 MrHanky

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:39 AM

I have called etrade 22 times now...They hang up on me every single time.(after making me hold 20 minutes each time)

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One thought, you might put your money is the short 1-3 treasury ETF. SHY which shouldn't move much and it will be there when they move the accounts. Anybody else have any thoughts on that? :unsure:

View Post

Good idea. Then if he opens an account with another brokerage and has them transfer it, THEY will be the ones on the phone screaming at Etrade.

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Transferring everything to interactive brokers via acats transfer.If the wire i sent today does not go through it will be transferred by acats in 4 to 8 business days.....

I was not gonna close entire account,but now they pissed me off...closing all my etrade accounts now :angry:

Oh well.... ;)

Nothing


#41 DrStool

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:40 AM

Neither 3 day nor 5 hr cycle indicators are confirming the move as yet.

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#42 Drano

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:41 AM

That etrade experience is why I have accounts at brokers with offices I can walk into and trade, or in the case of something like this, demand a check.
Of course I'm caustic!

#43 DrStool

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:41 AM

dow 5 day cycle MA 13121.62. 3 day 13095

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#44 DrStool

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:42 AM

spx 3 day cycle MA 1456.33. 5 day 1459.48.

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#45 potatohead

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Posted 13 November 2007 - 10:42 AM

DJ Fed Accepts $11.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $11.25 Bln
Total submitted: $52.5 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $11.25 Bln
Total submitted: $28.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.62%
Weighted Average: 4.62%
High-rate submitted: 4.62%
Low-rate submitted: 4.25%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $6.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.27%
Low-rate submitted: 4%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $17.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.7%
Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
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