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IDS World Markets Thurs 8th November 07


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#16 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 08:42 AM

FSLR up 52 bucks!!! :o
That's 30+%!!!!
Stop the Madness

#17 DrStool

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 08:42 AM

Where are all the people now who were screaming that the US housing bust would not affect the markets because central banks would print their way out of any problems? Where are all the people now who said that US housing wouldn’t come down. Just look at the UK, they said.
The problem for those of us able to put two and two together and look a couple years into the future, which includes just about all regular readers of these pages, is that the vast majority of financial pundits and investors, both professionals and not, have the attention span of a gnat. And the stock market guys are always the last to get the message. They don’t want to see the truth until you put it into their cold dead hands. Even over the last few weeks, as it became more and more obvious that the wheels were coming off the financial system, people were saying, “Look how strong the market is! Only 5% from the highs with all this bad news!”

Yes folks, tops take time. The bigger the top, the longer it takes. Because contrary to Wall Street and academic religion, the markets don’t discount the future. They are not forward looking. They are backward looking. That’s why, when the liquidity rug is suddenly pulled out from under them, they have no clue, and the market just suddenly breaks.

Well, maybe today isn’t the day it breaks, and maybe it is. Maybe there’s still enough cash around to keep enough stuff levitated to give the market the appearance of “normalcy.” But one of these days, soon, they’re gonna pull the rug, and the next day we’ll be looking up at yesterday’s prices that are 10% higher than today’s. And my question will be, gee, what changed overnight that the markets weren’t discounting yesterday.

The answer of course, is “nothing”. Because the market is blind. It can’t see the future. Traders and investors, and yes, trading programs, only know what happened yesterday, not tomorrow. Prices change based not on expectations for the future; they change on one equation and one equation only–the supply of securities based on the need of holders to create or liquidate versus the demand for securities based on the ability of buyers to pay. When the need to liquidate overwhelms the ability to pay, prices suffer an adjustment. The greater the imbalance, the faster the adjustment.

So forget the news, forget the economic data, forget all the talking head nonsense. It’s all just noise and fluff designed to confuse you. Turn it off. All you need to know is that the trillions of fictitious capital created over the last 5-10 years is now being outed for what it is. They can’t count it because it was never there. And now that that’s being recognized, they can’t spend it, and they can’t use it to prop the Ponzi scheme any more. That’s what we have been seeing in the charts. We don’t need the news to tell us that.

So say Good Night Alice. Your wonderland has been laid bare and it’s gaining on you in your rear view mirror. What you see there now are the ghoulish skeletons of your willfully ignorant past overtaking you. When you awake from your dream, it will be too late.

You will be one of them.

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#18 DrStool

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 08:45 AM

This pre market recoveries are pure farce. They run it up on a few hundred futures contracts. Meanwhile millions of other investors anxiously await the opening bell, in most cases with their sell orders already in.

The overnight lows will be revisited.

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#19 DrStool

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 08:55 AM

Here's another shibboleth. The idea that there are bears.

Yeah sure, there are a few hundred big bears scattered around the world. But they do not move the markets. Never have, never will. Bears are irrelevant. Only the bulls matter. They are the ones that move the market. Their propensity to move the market is unidirectional until they run out of cash. At that point the need for funds dictates the action. That's where we are now. The need for cash is dictating the action.

But the sellers aren't bears. They are bulls. Scared, fearful, but still bulls.

They are the ones who are trapped, not the bears. They are trapped because there isn't enough cash out there to get them out of their enormous leveraged long positions whole. It will not take much of a drop to wipe them out.

As for the bears, they didn't short the market overnight. They're selling strength.

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#20 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:04 AM

PTR at 205 in Prehour!
BOOOOOYAH!!!!
Stop the Madness

#21 linrom

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:20 AM

PTR at 205 in Prehour!
BOOOOOYAH!!!!

View Post



Rio Tinto is up $108 on buyout talks.

#22 Lemur

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:36 AM

FSLR up 52 bucks!!!  :o
That's 30+%!!!!

View Post



Complete nuts. A while back I bought FSLR at $119 (or something) and got shaken out on a stop run. I remember thinking it look extended at the time.

#23 Phil Late Show

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:38 AM

Just in time for the opening bell:

Spitzer, Cuomo plan 'initiatives' to combat subprime crisis

:ph34r:

#24 Drano

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:39 AM

PTR at 205 in Prehour!
BOOOOOYAH!!!!

View Post



Rio Tinto is up $108 on buyout talks.

View Post

Um... PTR closed at 212.80. Madness's booyah is for the drop......

RIO closed at 35.84. Up 108? Is that in some European market or something? Or do you mean 1.08?
Of course I'm caustic!

#25 Drano

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:40 AM

FSLR up 52 bucks!!!  :o
That's 30+%!!!!

View Post



Complete nuts. A while back I bought FSLR at $119 (or something) and got shaken out on a stop run. I remember thinking it look extended at the time.

View Post

Sure wish I could remember who was touting it as a SHORT.
Of course I'm caustic!

#26 Lemur

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:40 AM

Looks like they are running GIGGLER up pre-mkt.

Madness, K Wave are you guys gona cover?

#27 DrStool

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:44 AM

PTR at 205 in Prehour!
BOOOOOYAH!!!!

View Post



Rio Tinto is up $108 on buyout talks.

View Post

Um... PTR closed at 212.80. Madness's booyah is for the drop......

RIO closed at 35.84. Up 108? Is that in some European market or something? Or do you mean 1.08?

View Post


Symbol is RTP. It's up 100.

They bought Alcan last year.

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#28 Phil Late Show

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:45 AM

Further to the link above, turns out this Cuomo guy is working for the Russians! :blink:

Crapvision's Cramer: New York AG Cuomo a 'Communist'

One might suspect that what Cuomo has to say may be bad for Cramer's piggish brethren...

#29 patents

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:46 AM

Where are all the people now who were screaming that the US housing bust would not affect the markets because central banks would print their way out of any problems? Where are all the people now who said that US housing wouldn’t come down. Just look at the UK, they said.
The problem for those of us able to put two and two together and look a couple years into the future, which includes just about all regular readers of these pages, is that the vast majority of financial pundits and investors, both professionals and not, have the attention span of a gnat. And the stock market guys are always the last to get the message. They don’t want to see the truth until you put it into their cold dead hands. Even over the last few weeks, as it became more and more obvious that the wheels were coming off the financial system, people were saying, “Look how strong the market is! Only 5% from the highs with all this bad news!”

Yes folks, tops take time. The bigger the top, the longer it takes. Because contrary to Wall Street and academic religion, the markets don’t discount the future. They are not forward looking. They are backward looking. That’s why, when the liquidity rug is suddenly pulled out from under them, they have no clue, and the market just suddenly breaks.

Well, maybe today isn’t the day it breaks, and maybe it is. Maybe there’s still enough cash around to keep enough stuff levitated to give the market the appearance of “normalcy.” But one of these days, soon, they’re gonna pull the rug, and the next day we’ll be looking up at yesterday’s prices that are 10% higher than today’s. And my question will be, gee, what changed overnight that the markets weren’t discounting yesterday.

The answer of course, is “nothing”. Because the market is blind. It can’t see the future. Traders and investors, and yes, trading programs, only know what happened yesterday, not tomorrow. Prices change based not on expectations for the future; they change on one equation and one equation only–the supply of securities based on the need of holders to create or liquidate versus the demand for securities based on the ability of buyers to pay. When the need to liquidate overwhelms the ability to pay, prices suffer an adjustment. The greater the imbalance, the faster the adjustment.

So forget the news, forget the economic data, forget all the talking head nonsense. It’s all just noise and fluff designed to confuse you. Turn it off. All you need to know is that the trillions of fictitious capital created over the last 5-10 years is now being outed for what it is. They can’t count it because it was never there. And now that that’s being recognized, they can’t spend it, and they can’t use it to prop the Ponzi scheme any more. That’s what we have been seeing in the charts. We don’t need the news to tell  us that.

So say Good Night Alice. Your wonderland has been laid bare and it’s gaining on you in your rear view mirror. What you see there now are the ghoulish skeletons of your willfully ignorant past overtaking you. When you awake from your dream, it will be too late.

You will be one of them.

View Post

Let me posit a somewhat different approach.

The Fed is not necessarily "printing" money, but it is either "creating" or permitting the creation of what we ordinary natural people (versus a legal entity) would call money. As such, the market will likely one day come CRASHING down when the jig is up, but until then, the Fed+21 has many tricks up their sleeves in order to keep the markets elevated. The rules that apply to you and me just do not apply to them.

This is compounded by all the non-thinking people in the world who do not know or care.

So, personally, I believe that you are absolutely correct. The real issue is when? Today? (I wish.) Next week? (opex - doubtful)

When will the Fed+21 run out of ways to paper over the mess?

Again, Robert Heller's PPT would not work if the Fed+21 had to have margin to trade.

#30 seamus

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Posted 08 November 2007 - 09:50 AM

HL beat by .04....will keep this one on a tight leash as it has gone parabolic in the past few days. Stop limit 10.80.





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