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IDS World Markets Thurs 11th October 07


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#61 Speakeasy

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:09 AM

Interesting action in the IBB this ayem (Nardsaq biodreck etf).

I've had an $88.50 l/t target on this one for a couple of years. Bonered up over 1% to $88.49 on the open and immediately went red. Looks like someone else had the same target as well.

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Tanks for the heads up, just harvested my dec 95's for 250%, and will see what kind of pullback we get. :D
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#62 cbear

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:09 AM

In a simplistic review of the OMO actions as compared to the SPX performance, since August 1 there have been three times (before today) that there was a drain of $10B or more (8/13 - $36B drain; 9/13 - $17B drain; 9/27 - $11B drain).  Two of these three instances resulted in good up days for the SPX.  The biggest drain on 8/13 of -$36B resulted in an essentially flat trading day (-1/2 SPX point).

Two of the three days were on the 13th of the month.

With this limited, recent sample, it just seems that there is little correlation with major OMO drains to the stock market.

I know that it is a limited sample size, but as Jimbo Cramer used to say, it is what is happening now that matters.

Is there a lag that is important rather than the impact that very day?

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It ain't 2PM yet. Perhaps later in the afternoon you will hear that giant sucking sound and there'll be a nice ol' fashioned dumperoo (for a change).

#63 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:11 AM

In a simplistic review of the OMO actions as compared to the SPX performance, since August 1 there have been three times (before today) that there was a drain of $10B or more (8/13 - $36B drain; 9/13 - $17B drain; 9/27 - $11B drain).  Two of these three instances resulted in good up days for the SPX.  The biggest drain on 8/13 of -$36B resulted in an essentially flat trading day (-1/2 SPX point).

Two of the three days were on the 13th of the month.

With this limited, recent sample, it just seems that there is little correlation with major OMO drains to the stock market.

I know that it is a limited sample size, but as Jimbo Cramer used to say, it is what is happening now that matters.

Is there a lag that is important rather than the impact that very day?

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That's correct. The day to day correlation is low. And over the past 10 months, the trend correlation has been low as well.

In the most recent rally, especially, the liquidity is coming from elsewhere. But the market cannot buck the Fed indefinitely. If the Fed doesn't get more generous, there will be a price to be paid.

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#64 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:11 AM

HUI starts to back off after hitting the projection. Maybe it is the weather vane today.

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#65 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:12 AM

3 day cycle indicators go to sell side on qqqq. The first line to watch on a pullback will be the 3 day cycle MA at 53.69.

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#66 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:15 AM

If they can't break that, then obviously, there will be no downturn. Below that trend support should be at the 5 day cycle MA at 53.55, a couple of trendlines at 53.50 and 53.43, and the 8 day cycle MA at 53.43.

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#67 potatohead

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:18 AM

If they can't break that, then obviously, there will be no downturn. Below that trend support should be at the 5 day cycle MA at 53.55, a couple of trendlines  at 53.50 and 53.43, and the 8 day cycle MA at 53.43.

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bank CD's don't even have that kind of support :D
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#68 LeeWhee

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:18 AM

HUI hits 5 day cycle projection.

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The HUI has been very Fib-friendly. The next Fib projecteration I have is 424. A bit higher. If it gets above there, it could be a moonshot.
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

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#69 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:22 AM

I was so confident that the move in the gold stocks had further to go that I even added another long to our chart pick list this morning-- a third rate junior miner.

Which is a sign that the move probably is over. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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#70 Drano

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:22 AM

Zacks says today's strong buy is AMZN.

This has been a reliable fade.

Bueller?
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#71 Drano

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:22 AM

I was so confident that the move in the gold stocks had further to go that I even added another long to our chart pick list this morning-- a third rate junior miner.

Which is a sign that the move probably is over. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Link, please?
Of course I'm caustic!

#72 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:23 AM

Holy crap.

I just checked, and the stock I added this morning as of the open already hit its intermediate target. The rule is that we are out when the target is hit. It was a 13% gain in the space of 2 hours.

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#73 LeeWhee

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:23 AM

In a simplistic review of the OMO actions as compared to the SPX performance, since August 1 there have been three times (before today) that there was a drain of $10B or more (8/13 - $36B drain; 9/13 - $17B drain; 9/27 - $11B drain).†  Two of these three instances resulted in good up days for the SPX.† The biggest drain on 8/13 of -$36B resulted in an essentially flat trading day (-1/2 SPX point).

Two of the three days were on the 13th of the month.

With this limited, recent sample, it just seems that there is little correlation with major OMO drains to the stock market.

I know that it is a limited sample size, but as Jimbo Cramer used to say, it is what is happening now that matters.

Is there a lag that is important rather than the impact that very day?

View Post


It ain't 2PM yet. Perhaps later in the afternoon you will hear that giant sucking sound and there'll be a nice ol' fashioned dumperoo (for a change).

View Post


Sentimentrader.com noted today that the NDX has gapped up +0.5% or more following making a new 52-week high five times prior since 1999. Today makes the 6th occurrence. In all five prior occurrences, buying the open and holding until EOD resulted in ZERO winning trades. The average drawdown was -2.1%.

Of course, this just could be voodoo-esque data mining and this time will be different.

I still show another 1%+ to go on the XLK (tech etf) before problems may arise. But my L/T target was hit on the IBB (Nardsaq biodreck). So we are getting close to a lot of key levels in my work. Doesn't mean the markit will take a poop, but could mean the upside will be sketchy.
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#74 Speakeasy

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:24 AM

77 handle on bucky again. And spx staying in the canon barrel except for intraday pokethru's.

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Behind every great fortune there is a crime. ~ Honore de Balzac
One must live the way one thinks, or end up thinking the way one lives
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#75 DrStool

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Posted 11 October 2007 - 11:25 AM

I was so confident that the move in the gold stocks had further to go that I even added another long to our chart pick list this morning-- a third rate junior miner.

Which is a sign that the move probably is over. :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Link, please?

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