Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

IDS World Markets Wed 3rd October 07


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
158 replies to this topic

#46 Lemur

Lemur

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,134 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:37 AM

KBH ....................... go.

Lucky I decided to cover my short.

Attached Thumbnails

  • KBH_chart.png


#47 patents

patents

    Master of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,838 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:44 AM

Can someone help me understand how, leaving aside pure manipulation, the YEN can go down in value versus the USD when they have such a trade surplus with the US and the US interest rates are supposedly going to keep going down?

Is there any rationale for the decline in the YEN versus the USD?

Thnx.

#48 LeeWhee

LeeWhee

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,145 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:46 AM

Here's a couple "crime scene" patterns to ponder. Both the IIX (internuts) and XLE (bigcrap energy) have completed their "return to the scene of the crime."

The XLE is starting to morph into a range, but a move under today's low opens up a bigger selldown. The IIX is now perched slightly above its major l/t resistance at 235-240ish (the neckline of the 99/00 bubble).

On the XLE, keep an eye on the 50dayMA and 200dayMA. The riverboatists appear to like to use these lines on the XLE as guideposts. The XLE bounced exactly at the 50dayMA in late Jun on its way to the Jul peak. Then it was turned away exactly at the 50dayMA prior to the move to the low. Then it bounced exactly at the 200dayMA on 8/16 when it found bottom.

Attached Thumbnails

  • Picture_6.png
  • Picture_5.png

"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#49 Brick Stoolhouse

Brick Stoolhouse

    Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,742 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:50 AM

Look at the USD YEN run!

View Post


I know I'm crazy but I'm buying the Double Dollar Upside Fund RYSBX!
The dollar short side is getting awfully crowded! How about a bounce to 82! :mellow:
“A million seconds is 11.5 days. A billion seconds is about 32 years. A trillion seconds is 32,000 years."

#50 I_Am_Madness

I_Am_Madness

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,554 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:53 AM

Look at the USD YEN run!

View Post


I know I'm crazy but I'm buying the Double Dollar Upside Fund RYSBX!
The dollar short side is getting awfully crowded! How about a bounce to 82! :mellow:

View Post


Hmmm..
Might not be a bad idea.
Stop the Madness

#51 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,390 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:57 AM

3 day cycle indicators whipsawing like crazy the past two days. No help there.

5 day cycle indicators mixed on qqqq. still on sell side on spx.

The key level on the Qs looks like 52. If they go through that, then breaking the high should come next.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#52 LeeWhee

LeeWhee

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,145 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 10:58 AM

KBH ....................... go.

Lucky I  decided to cover my short.

View Post


HGX right back at 169. Now there's a shocker. :P

Bubblers could easily run another 10-15% and not change a thing on the L/T chart.

If anything, this "rally" off the Aug lows has been far more anemic than the prior rallies off the Oct05 and Jul06 lows.

Could mean that, instead of bonering like before, the bubbs might be starting to form a base. Or not, of course.

But a 6-week base after a multi-year bubble seems a bit light in the loafers, IMO.

A 50% haircut off the top would indicate HGX 147 or so. The Aug bottom was 153.

Attached Thumbnails

  • Picture_8.png

"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#53 LeeWhee

LeeWhee

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,145 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:02 AM

Looks like Rotation Station this week. Sell the hotsy-totsys (energy, submerging, goldies), buy the turds (bonks, bubblers, etc). Still haven't seen any selling of substance entering the techster brigade. Maybe the crooks are waiting for yearnings to sell the techs.

Usually we see rotation prior to a broader selloff. The fraudexes stay pimped until the rotation completes. When there's nothing left to rotate, all fall down.

But this time will, without question, be different.

Attached Images

  • funny_31.jpg

"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#54 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,390 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:04 AM

first try to break through resistance line on qqqq rebuffed. This battle could be for all the marbles.

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#55 Jetlag

Jetlag

    Dean of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,776 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:05 AM

J Fed Accepts $2.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $2.25 Bln
Total submitted: $64.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted:  None
Total submitted: $18.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate:  N/A
Weighted Average:  N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.8%
Low-rate submitted: 4.65%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.25 Bln
Total submitted: $26.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.76%
Weighted Average: 4.76%
High-rate submitted: 4.76%
Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted:  None
Total submitted: $18.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate:  N/A
Weighted Average:  N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.85%
Low-rate submitted: 4.78%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

View Post


Bummer, was asspecting another 5% stop out.

#56 LeeWhee

LeeWhee

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,145 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:07 AM

Riverboatists having some fun with FXI while the Shank is closed for Chicken Feet Week.

Attached Thumbnails

  • sc.png

Attached Images

  • china_trader_8.jpg

"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#57 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,390 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:11 AM

KBH ....................... go.

Lucky I  decided to cover my short.

View Post


HGX right back at 169. Now there's a shocker. :P

Bubblers could easily run another 10-15% and not change a thing on the L/T chart.

If anything, this "rally" off the Aug lows has been far more anemic than the prior rallies off the Oct05 and Jul06 lows.

Could mean that, instead of bonering like before, the bubbs might be starting to form a base. Or not, of course.

But a 6-week base after a multi-year bubble seems a bit light in the loafers, IMO.

A 50% haircut off the top would indicate HGX 147 or so. The Aug bottom was 153.

View Post


There's a very clear channel on the XHB over the past 16 weeks. Each of 4 times it hit or almost hit the bottom of the channel would have been a good time to cover shorts for short term trading purposes. Each time they got near the top of the channel would have been a great time to short. The top of the channel makes a pretty clear stop line, but I don't think it matters since they are all going to zero. :lol: :lol: :lol:

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#58 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,390 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:13 AM

J Fed Accepts $2.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $2.25 Bln
Total submitted: $64.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted:  None
Total submitted: $18.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate:  N/A
Weighted Average:  N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.8%
Low-rate submitted: 4.65%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.25 Bln
Total submitted: $26.85 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 4.76%
Weighted Average: 4.76%
High-rate submitted: 4.76%
Low-rate submitted: 4.5%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted:  None
Total submitted: $18.95 Bln
Stop-Out Rate:  N/A
Weighted Average:  N/A
High-rate submitted: 4.85%
Low-rate submitted: 4.78%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

View Post


Bummer, was asspecting another 5% stop out.

View Post



Yeah, looks like it was a one shot deal. But I liked my theory though. Was kinda fun. :lol:

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#59 LeeWhee

LeeWhee

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,145 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:13 AM

Bought some of this thing when it broke back over $20. Looks like I have company as the riverboatists have jumped aboard and goosed it another 20% in four days.

INFN IPO'ed in June, bonered up almost 100% in two weeks, then got sold off for three months back to the IPO price. Chart looks similar to BX (Blackstone.) Nicely compressed chart that was crying for a volatility breakout.

Where it goes from here is anybody's guess. Looks like it might have shot a decent wad already.

INFN has something to do with the Internets, which I understand are popular with the kids these days.

Attached Thumbnails

  • Picture_9.png

"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtorô."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#60 DrStool

DrStool

    Chief of Stock Proctology

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 83,390 posts

Posted 03 October 2007 - 11:14 AM

return to scene of crime trendline at 52.01

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart