220 replies to this topic
Posted 04 December 2002 - 08:33 AM
Good morning, everyone.
I really didn't have the heart to tell you this until now but something happened shortly after the close last Friday that was totally unanticipated by yours truly. Big Bear, my assistant who I was relying on to to announce the end of the daily AM threads, ran off.
Suddenly and without warning.
Ran off to kill something.
And devour it.
And never returned.
So I suspect he is still feeding. Or was at least as of yesterday afternoon.
And I feel that at this point his appetite has grown so insatiable that he probably won't return.
Except perhaps to visit from time to time.
Yesterday, however, the gods above most unexpectedly provided me with someone else to handle the job.
One of my great teachers, someone I met twenty-five years ago and from whom I have drawn much inspiration over the years, came by and graciously offered to lend a hand.
At least for the time being.
I accepted his offer with much gratitude.
Please all give him a warm welcome when he makes his first appearance at 12:45 PM today.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 08:44 AM
From last evenings Night Stool:
Wow is this thing extended or what. Off the charts bullishness.
This chart compares bullishness against the cash index.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 08:58 AM
Gold bounces off the 50% channel and knocks up against the 120 congestion zone. It's a cliffhanger.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:09 AM
phatbubble? I see that you're around. In MarkToMarket, you mentioned "a guy from oystercatcher". That's Chris Locke, right? He is one very sharp cookie! I've caught his appearance on Crapvision-Europe 3 times for the past 14 months - and every time he was spot-on, with clear, concise, correct technical arguments, explaining why the market will fall - and he was right every time, of course. I wish I knew when exactly he appears, so that I don't miss any of his presentations. He's one of the very few people who appear on Crapvision and actually know what they are talking about.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:17 AM
Will it? Won't it? (Break below the critical uptrending support line today, I mean.)
P.S. Annotations are not mine; I just found a chart that's saying what I wanted to say.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:19 AM
Morning read over a cup of java...
The bottom line is that deflation is here, the Fed is fighting it; and SO FAR the Fed is losing.
Roger Arnold Daily Observations
Wouldn't surprise me of a repeat of last year for the bullish percent - then more upside in Feb. Didn't Doc mention Feb. in the anals
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:25 AM
Could not get the price I wanted after the close yesterday so still holding all OEX puts. Looks like I'll get out of them into strength after the open today. If there is a swup I'll attempt to reload. We're about 5 points below fair value (S&P) right now. I'll look at Doc's morning update to finalize plans.
Dollar down and gold up. Good for the PM's again.
I'll keep the MXIM Feb puts. They're green again.
Good luck with the snow out east. We've just got a dusting up north.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:26 AM
bontchev: It looks promising per the futures. My question is will it drop enough to put an island top in the Nasdaq. Would it be an island if it drops enough and holds after 8 days? IG
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:26 AM
For those who haven't seen it, although it has been linked numerous times, Marshall Aureback on the non existent problem of deflation which we are not supposed to worry about as the Fed scrambles mightily to fight it.
In his construction , which is a fair one I think, he says downplaying the risks rhetorically amounts to lying and this will have dire consequenses.
War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:27 AM
The US Dollar
S&P 500 Future
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:28 AM
SG Chimes in with update
Continuing to hold my 200% short qqq position from Monday, now quite profitable because its a LARGE position.
That said... E Waves indicate another leg down, and you can see 1380 as a gap anyhow... I suspect this is where we will get a ST reversal.
Im still looking at 970-1000 on the NDX as posted 2 days ago as my gaps where I will likely cover, for the interim.
And this today from our boys at Raptor:
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:33 AM
Productivity up 5.1% - lay off driven I suspect.
Yields went up initially but creeping down again.
Futures look about the same.
I'll consider the big down day scenario SG.
Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:34 AM
Good Morning! for a change.
So, whaddya think of Capitalstool's newest slogan?
"Are you ready for the next wave?"
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Posted 04 December 2002 - 09:35 AM
Y'all have to see the gaps here
1. 26.20 or so, looks like support.... closed around 27 yesterday ... so we should likely see a move down of about another 3% or so today on the Q's
2. I also see gaps at 24.xx levels, which should come sometime next week IMHO.
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