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IDS World Markets Tues 18th September 07


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#46 Cassiopeia

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:08 AM

Looking at a fairly nice move down into the announcement (with a weak test of the open). So at this point, only scalping short direction. :ph34r:

#47 Peek Paper

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:12 AM

Watching the 5 day cycle indicators on spx. They are right at the zero line. They could park there all day, but one way or the other, when they move off that line it's going to be a huge move. Not one of those 6 point wussies.

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SPX 1480 calls expiring at the Friday open are asking 16 bucks. Event premium is as hefty as I've seen it in a while. Premium compression will kill both sides today, especially with the expected whopsaw.

Better to sell options than to buy them, if you have an itchy finger today. Today is Pig Men in Paradise Day.

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The deeper you dig into a pile of dung, the worse it smells ...

#48 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:28 AM

HUI may be the leader of the pack on the downside. acting like dogshit.

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Have a feeling today will be a good day to smack gold.
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#49 Cassiopeia

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:37 AM

Well here is the 'Weak test' of the open part. I hope :rolleyes: Never underestimate the exuberant siren call of pigmania.

#50 ChicagoBear

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:42 AM

All right! Who is ready for some action? I’m tired of sitting around waiting for this day. Absolutely boring! 6 straight days of falling volume on the NYSE; 4 weeks of below average volume on all indexes. What a bunch of noise!

I trade with the market trend. When I can’t tell the trend, I sit out. At this point, I really have no read on the trend because it can go either way based on the FOMC. Today is pivotal (I like how Lee calls it “the fate of Western civilization”).

If you filter out the news-noise (just look at the charts and forget about the credit crisis), then it looks like just another run-of-the-mill intermediate correction that has bottomed and is poised to start another rally. According to IBD, the Nasdaq followed-through on 8/29 and this is a new rally. Considering that 80% of follow-through days lead to new rallies, you would be fighting the odds to try and go short right now.

If we add to the charts the storyline of the FOMC, then we can recognize that the August rally was “The Fed is done” rally. The markets responded by rallying after the rate hikes were paused. This leads to where we are today. Namely, a potential new rally based on rate cuts. I think this is more probable, but I’m not buying yet.

On the other hand, no other index except the Nasdaq has follow-through at this point. The bottom on the charts has such weak volume that it looks at risk. This could be a feeble rally attempt that flops. In addition, we never had the third move lower that I was expecting. Perhaps that is still to come. And when you add to this the news-noise about housing bubble and the credit crisis (especially from a liquidity viewpoint), it is difficult to imagine where the money will come from to move this market higher. It certainly makes sense to think the path of least resistance will be down. And, (as Lee and Crazy8 have pointed out) the rate cuts didn’t stop the tech bubble from unwinding.

Clear as Mud?

One thing is for certain. We’ve seen enough fake knee-jerk reactions to FOMC statements to view the move this afternoon with suspicion. I’m going to wait until the dust settles and let the charts tell the story. (the chart below shows all the FOMC meetings over the past 2 years and notes the follow-through days)

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#51 DrStool

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:55 AM

This idea that rate cuts are bullish is just hogwash. The bear market was during a falling rate period, and the recent bull run was in a rising rate environment since June 2004. It just does not wash. Rates do not matter. The level and direction of liquidity is the only thing that matters, and it sure as hell isn't up.

We've never seen a worldwide liquidity collapse like this since 1929. As far as I am concerned all bets are off except for the one that says that the market can't buck this trend for long.

This is not just about one run on one bank. That's the tip of the iceberg. There's a sheetpile of bad paper out there that ain't payin' interest and ain't returning principle. That's a fact and it means that some very big players are going to start coming up short in a big way very soon. Once the dominoes begin to fall, it will be too late.

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#52 crazy_ate

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:56 AM

Usually, during the past couple of years, every time crude went up, the price of unleaded followed-on......and prices at the pump "jacked" within days.....prices at the pump are at mult-month lows in in NJ.....as low as $2.43 per gal for reg unleaded

Not this time.....

Need to keep that inflation # down in order to pave a path for the "Fed Ease"....

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Yeah, yeah, I know......refining capacity not impaired....peak driving season over....blah, blah, blah

Chart Source<------

#53 crooked_analyst

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 10:57 AM

I'm expecting a run up in the S&P to 1505'ish before any pullback.

Now that i've said that, you can expect the opposite.... ;)

#54 Cassiopeia

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:02 AM

That would be it, short with impunity! SnPEE futures 1500. SOW futures at the 600 break. I may have to leave breadcrumbs so you can find the body just in case.

#55 Cassiopeia

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:06 AM

Unfortunately, Nasdog has just woken up from it's slumber there.

#56 Jimi

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:07 AM

This idea that rate cuts are bullish is just hogwash. The bear market was during a falling rate period, and the recent bull run was in a rising rate environment since June 2004. It just does not wash.  Rates do not matter. The level and direction of liquidity is the only thing that matters, and it sure as hell isn't up. 

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Guy before the opening from the floor of the NYSe told Whiskey Haines that "there is a 100% correlation between Fed cuts and stock market rallies in the 20th century."

I swear to god, he said it.
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#57 DrStool

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:10 AM

5 day cycle indicators have turned up from the zero line. That usually means a very big move.

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#58 crooked_analyst

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:12 AM

This idea that rate cuts are bullish is just hogwash. The bear market was during a falling rate period, and the recent bull run was in a rising rate environment since June 2004. It just does not wash.  Rates do not matter. The level and direction of liquidity is the only thing that matters, and it sure as hell isn't up. 

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Guy before the opening from the floor of the NYSe told Whiskey Haines that "there is a 100% correlation between Fed cuts and stock market rallies in the 20th century."

I swear to god, he said it.

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Earlier this morning, some goon was calling for a 1,000 point move up from where we started the day.... kick 'em in the nay-nay's, would you Doc?

#59 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:14 AM

SHORT ES at 1503.25
Stop the Madness

#60 crazy_ate

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 11:15 AM

Earlier this morning, some goon was calling for a 1,000 point move up from where we started the day.... kick 'em in the nay-nay's, would you Doc?

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If that happens I can knock off early for 2007, as I will have "made my year" :lol: :lol: :lol:





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