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#16 K Wave Rider

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 04:58 PM

RUT fractal continues to eeerily track 87 SPX fractal.....

IF/When 790 area goes on ER2, LOB

In the mean, time would not be surprised to see that assblast into Labor Day timeframe.

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Can you help me understand the fractal issues? As I understood your post from a couple of days ago, Thursday morning was supposed to be all there was. We are now back up to that point.

Does the fractal pattern shift? Does the fractal pattern somehow morph into something else like in Elliott Waves?

It seems that if something is a true fractal, then fractal must repeat without change. If there is a difference, then it can not be a fractal pattern. Then it becomes just trying to match a randomly identified pattern grouping without any assurance of repetition.

Thnx.

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Today was the day that the '29 and '87 fractals diverged, '29 only rallied for 1 week and '87 rallied for two.....so I figured today might be telling...it appears that we are following along the '87 path more closely....which was my gut thought from the get go, that we would rally into Labor Day.

But like I said, any breach of today's low on RUT could spell big trouble now. This rally has been on minimal volume, so we could have a large down day at any time now, and the Bradley model has had exact hits before, so a breakdown from todays close would not surprise me either. Monday should be quite revealing...

#17 Jimi

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 04:58 PM

Between this Citicorpse news and the Discount commercial paper crap, I'm about to get pissed off enough to kick something.
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#18 Benny Hoo Hoo

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:08 PM

it's no wonder the panic selling & volatility stopped

(as pointed out by crazy_ate earlier)

Fed bends rules to help Citigroup

An Aug. 20 letter from the Fed to Citigroup states that the Fed, which regulates large parts of the U.S. financial system, has agreed to exempt Citigroup from rules that effectively limit the amount of lending that its federally-insured bank can do with its brokerage affiliate. The exemption, which is temporary, means that Citigroup's Citibank entity can substantially increase funding to Citigroup Global Markets, its brokerage subsidiary. Citigroup requested the exemption, according to the letter.


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This does a total injustice to the concept of "rules."

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There is only one rule as far as the Fed is concerned:

Rule # 1: Ponzi scheme must be preserved at all costs.

#19 lineup32

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:09 PM

Doc: Is this part of the money problem you were discussing last night?

from a thread on CR:

OHN PARTRIDGE and BOYD ERMAN
Thursday, August 23, 2007
The freeze-up in short-term lending that is battering Canada's Coventree Inc. is spreading fast in the U.S. and Europe, raising concerns about slower economic growth and the strain on banks that have agreed to back the commercial paper that suddenly nobody wants to buy.

Thursday, the list of Canadian companies that have said they can't get the money they are owed after purchasing so-called asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) from Coventree and other sources again got longer.

Among those that revealed exposure were the Greater Toronto Airports Authority, which has about $249-million of ABCP, some run by Coventree. Société générale de financement du Québec, the investment arm of the Quebec government, said it holds $137-million of non-bank ABCP, about 40 per cent of its cash, sold to it by National Bank. As well, Air Canada said it had $37-million of ABCP, out of $1.4-billion in total cash, and Russel Metals Inc. said it is owed $11-million.

The concern now is that companies whose cash balances are locked up in Coventree investments may be forced to delay spending, slowing economic growth. The problem would be compounded if companies that borrow directly in the commercial paper market to fund day-to-day operations are unable to find buyers. But bond salesmen say well-regarded borrowers are able to find takers for their short-term IOUs, though at a higher interest rate than a few weeks ago.

“It doesn't take much of a hesitation on the part of businesses and spending or hiring to begin to show up in the economic data,” Ted Carmichael of J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. warned in an interview. “As long as the commercial paper market remains seized up, the risks that the economy could slow down quite sharply are rising in both the U.S. and Canada.”

So far companies caught with Coventree paper have said they have access to cash to keep operating, either through banks or what's available elsewhere on their balance sheets.

The crisis, which began to spread in mid-July when Coventree customers started to balk at buying paper backed in part by U.S. mortgages amid a housing slump there, has become a global problem. Issuers similar to Coventree have found buyers have vanished, with the Federal Reserve reporting that outstanding U.S. commercial paper fell 4.2 per cent in the past week, the biggest drop since 2000.

As a result, commercial paper investors who are due money are looking to banks to bail them out in accordance with backup agreements. Fitch Ratings estimates that banks have $891-billion (U.S.) of commitments to commercial paper investors who bought asset-backed commercial paper.

The problem for holders of Coventree paper is that banks balked at backing the securities, citing an out available only in Canada, and now under the so-called “Montreal proposal” the market has been effectively brought to a stand

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

#20 Bungster

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:11 PM

it's no wonder the panic selling & volatility stopped

(as pointed out by crazy_ate earlier)

Fed bends rules to help Citigroup

An Aug. 20 letter from the Fed to Citigroup states that the Fed, which regulates large parts of the U.S. financial system, has agreed to exempt Citigroup from rules that effectively limit the amount of lending that its federally-insured bank can do with its brokerage affiliate. The exemption, which is temporary, means that Citigroup's Citibank entity can substantially increase funding to Citigroup Global Markets, its brokerage subsidiary. Citigroup requested the exemption, according to the letter.


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This does a total injustice to the concept of "rules."

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There is only one rule as far as the Fed is concerned:

Rule # 1: Ponzi scheme must be preserved at all costs.

View Post


Rule # 2: Rules are made to be broken.
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#21 Jimi

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:12 PM

When does the Fed clarify that it is bending its "rules" just this one time and accepting ABCP from Coventree at the Discount window?
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Tops Take Time
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Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
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#22 briarberry

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:17 PM

Citigroup - surely it means that their brokerage has gone bust ?

will their brokerage have time to off load before the next downleg ?

#23 try2win

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:19 PM

why do the post now have link ads in them for various crap ? i thought somethign on my computer was causing it .. but i am using another computer now. same thing.

#24 try2win

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:22 PM

Between this Citicorpse news and the Discount commercial paper crap, I'm about to get pissed off enough to kick something.

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thats why i cant get really bearish right now. of course we will have these 500 point down days but they are buying opps for some good trades. of course now that i said that maybe you will all get your black and blue monday

#25 Jimi

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:26 PM

Between this Citicorpse news and the Discount commercial paper crap, I'm about to get pissed off enough to kick something.

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thats why i cant get really bearish right now. of course we will have these 500 point down days but they are buying opps for some good trades. of course now that i said that maybe you will all get your black and blue monday

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There's nothing quite as refreshing as getting lectured & baited by a character best known for crashing through 1970s-era walls uninvited to offer cooled liquid relief from summer thirst....

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#26 potatohead

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:30 PM

I am sorry but this crap is getting to me too. What good are rules when they are not enforced..... I bet most americans do not have a clue what is happening and how financially in danger they are now. I have been an investment advisor for 15 years. If I put one toe hair outside the box, I will have the SEC, State regulator, client's attorney and client all over me like flies on shite. On the radio all I here is, if your broker did this or your advisor did that call our law office at 1-800-ass-hole. I am sick of the big boys getting away with everything and the honest man getting everything taken away. I am very worried about the real future of this country (having 5 kids) and how the unsuspecting public is going to deal with it. I believe in the hyperinflationary depression theme. As Doc says this will eventually be very painful. I agree 100%.
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#27 drwells

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:33 PM

Doc: Is this part of the money problem you were discussing last night?

*snip*


Found the whole article:
http://www.theglobea...NStory/Business

#28 Private Skidmark

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:34 PM

From The Chicago Tribune as reported at the Housing Bubble Blog:

[The Tan Man takes his turn being shocked.]

“‘If we went back a year or two and you were in the marketplace at that time, what would you have done differently?’ Citigroup anal cyst Brad Ball asked Countrywide management. ‘Would you have put in place the actions that you have under way today?’”

“Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s CEO, struggled to answer and eventually borrowed a phrase from former U.S. Sen. Howard Baker, who said of scandal-plagued Richard Nixon, ‘What did the president know and when did he know it?’”

“‘Our volumes, our whole place in the industry, would have changed dramatically,’ Mozilo said, ‘because we would have arbitrarily made a decision that was contrary to what everything appeared to be: Values going up, and no delinquencies, no foreclosures, and we suddenly stop the music and say that we’re not going to’ offer certain products.”

“‘It would have been an insight that only a superior spirit could have had at the time.’”

Yeah, uh, a superior spirit, or somebody dumping their stock hand over fist. <_<

So, I guess Doc is the new Buddha. ;)
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#29 phatbubble

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 05:40 PM

Sorry to be gone for a couple years. I was, er, busy. :blink:

Anyway, following in no particular order is an attempt to fine tune the crinkles in the peak of my tin foil hat:

-The 4 year cycle low is due this fall. I'd take 1250 on the SPX. Second choice is 1160. Third choice is Col Mustard in the library with the candlestick.

-Everyone knows the housing market is doomed. If I ran the zoo, I'd be working overtime to arrange workouts and silent bailouts and other financial rejiggering fairly dripping with moral hazard. Be careful what you wish for, a global depression would be likely to usher in a period of global conflict greater than what already might be on the table with Peak Oil. Would say we're in for 2-3 years of Ugly Paper.

-Everyone knows the dollar is doomed. I am compulsively scratching an itchy discomfort that we might see a powerful countertrend USD rally beginning Soon, or Already, and lasting Quite A While.

-The dollar rally could go hand in hand with a US equity rally which, after the 4 year bottom is in, takes the all the US indices to new nominal highs. Provided too much technical damage isn't done in the near term, this should be an inflationary extravaganza for PM stocks too.

-Next year we're likely to see the most viable Independent bid for the US Presidency since Perot won 19% of the popular vote in 1992.

-I am foaming boolish on alt energy for the next 2 years.

-In a price context, 2009 may be a good time to go shopping for a home. Caveat: a wheel will come off the corporate banking system in 2009-2011. I'm unclear what this does to housing, but anyway. This may be when potatohead's big boys become unable to continue getting away with it. Change is coming. Big time.
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#30 patents

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Posted 24 August 2007 - 06:02 PM

I am sorry but this crap is getting to me too. What good are rules when they are not enforced..... I bet most americans do not have a clue what is happening and how financially in danger they are now. I have been an investment advisor for 15 years. If I put one toe hair outside the box, I will have the SEC, State regulator, client's attorney and client all over me like flies on shite. On the radio all I here is, if your broker did this or your advisor did that call our law office at 1-800-ass-hole. I am sick of the big boys getting away with everything and the honest man getting everything taken away. I am very worried about the real future of this country (having 5 kids) and how the unsuspecting public is going to deal with it. I believe in the hyperinflationary depression theme. As Doc says this will eventually be very painful. I agree 100%.

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Everyone should re-read the Alice in Wonderland books this weekend.

No one sets rules for the Fed or the banking system. Not the SEC; not the DOJ; nor anyone else.

When Congress created/authorized the Fed, that law seemingly preempted all other laws. That is why they get away with collusion by coordinating action to move the markets with the primary dealers. Anyone else would run into problems with the antitrust laws.

Thus, if the Fed has any rules, they are whatever the Fed wants. They probably do not even have to post rules changes for public comment.

Try suing them for not following their rules. Any individual probably would not have jurisdiction to complain.

While it may be silly, if one can conceive of something the Fed can do, the Fed can do it. This clear example proves the point.

Rules. Rules? I don't need no stinkin' rules.





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